上周召开的国际货币基金组织和世界银行会议，未能为发展中世界应对不断蔓延的中东战争、持续的乌克兰战争、不断上升的债务偿还额以及潜在的人工智能泡沫等问题提供任何新的答案。
Last week's meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank yielded no new answers for the developing world to the questions posed by a spreading Middle East war, continuing war in Ukraine, rising debt payments and a potential AI bubble.
这并非低收入国家首次受到富裕国家行动的溢出效应冲击：债务偿还成本上升、通货膨胀加剧，以及因人工智能热潮而在经济上进一步落后的风险。
Not for the first time, lower-income countries are being rocked by the spillover from the actions of wealthier nations: rising debt service costs, higher inflation and the risk of falling ever further behind economically thanks to the AI boom.
他们得到的只是这些全球贷款机构一贯的老生常谈：缩减财政赤字，并加速经济改革以吸引更多私营部门投资。
What they got was the stock advice the global lenders always dish out: to shrink fiscal deficits and accelerate economic reforms to attract more private sector investment.
国际货币基金组织首位来自发展中国家（保加利亚）的负责人克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃表示，事实上，发达经济体才是预算失衡最严重的违规者。她指出，发展中国家的债务水平近年来其实有所下降，只是其他地方飙升的债券收益率推高了它们的借贷成本。
Kristalina Georgieva, the first IMF chief from a developing nation - Bulgaria - said advanced economies were in fact the worst offenders on budget imbalances. She noted that developing countries' debt levels had actually fallen in recent years, only for surging bond yields elsewhere to drive up their borrowing costs.
她说，那里平均的债务偿还额比十年前增加了一倍多，达到政府收入的14%，挤占了教育、医疗和其他关键领域。
Average debt service payments there had more than doubled from a decade ago to 14% of government revenue, crowding out education, healthcare and other critical areas, she said.
在周六的一个小组讨论上，格奥尔基耶娃表示，许多问题仍未得到解决，尤其是围绕人工智能的问题：“我们现在的处境是，我们的疑问远多于答案。我对所有人的警告是：不要上那些假装自己有答案的人的当。他们在欺骗你们。”大西洋理事会智库国际经济副总裁乔什·利普斯基表示，此次会议未能把握机遇提出指导方针或援助途径。
At a panel on Saturday, Georgieva said many issues remained unresolved, especially around AI: "We are in a place where we have many more questions than we have answers. And my alert to everybody is: Do not fall for the guys that pretend they have the answers. They are tricking you." Josh Lipsky, vice president of international economics at the Atlantic Council think tank, said the meetings had flunked their opportunity to come up with guidance or ways to help.
他说：“当发达经济体自己一团糟且面临财政危机风险时，谈论发展中世界是很困难的。这还不算许多国家内部的政治局势，这使得发展援助目前无法成为优先事项。”哥伦比亚前财政部长、现任纽约哥伦比亚大学国际与公共事务学院研究学者毛里索·卡德纳斯表示，许多政策制定者产生了一种深深的感受，即“可能会发生非常糟糕的事情”，但却没有应对未来的真正路线图。
"It's hard to talk about the developing world when the advanced economies don't have their act together and are at risk of a fiscal crisis," he said. "And that's on top of political situations in many of these countries that makes development aid not a priority at the moment." Mauricio Cardenas, Colombia's former finance minister and now a research scholar at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs in New York, said many policymakers were left with a deep sense that "something really bad could happen" but no real roadmap to navigate the future.
他说：“国际货币基金组织和世界银行对这一新阶段并没有特别充分的准备。他们明白正在发生某些事情，他们请来了人工智能专家。但到头来，对于如何为一个你并不真正理解其将如何展开的局面做好准备，并没有任何具体、切实的建议。”自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，地缘政治紧张局势一直扰乱着这两个机构，使一致行动变得复杂。这一点在曼谷也显而易见，当时在国际货币基金组织一个指导委员会上，近一半的代表在俄罗斯财政部长发言时退场。
"The IMF and World Bank are not particularly well prepared for this new phase. They understand that something is going on, they bring in experts on AI," he said. "But in the end, there's no kind of specific, concrete advice on how to be prepared for something where you don't really understand how it's going to unfold." The geopolitical tensions that have roiled both institutions since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 - complicating concerted action - were also evident in Bangkok when nearly half the delegates at an IMF steering committee walked out when Russia's finance minister spoke.
胡塞武装对利雅得机场的袭击延误了该委员会负责人、沙特财政大臣穆罕默德·贾德安的抵达，他不得不经陆路前往卡塔尔搭乘航班。
Houthi attacks on Riyadh airport delayed the arrival of the head of that committee, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, who had to travel overland to Qatar to catch a flight.
曼谷本身就是一个严峻的提醒，让人看到发展中国家面临的挑战。该市在9月发生洪灾后部分地区仍被淹没，洪水给泰国的工业部门造成了近2亿美元的损失。
And Bangkok itself was a stark reminder of the challenges facing developing countries, still partly under water after floods in September that caused almost $200 million in damage to Thailand's industrial sector.
约克大学教授凯特·皮克特敦促政策制定者关注更具包容性的增长，而不是强迫发展中国家进行严厉的结构性改革。
Kate Pickett, a professor at the University of York, urged policymakers to focus on more inclusive growth rather than forcing developing countries into tough structural reforms.
她说：“如果不断加剧的不平等和不断加深的贫困，将从长远来看增加他们的成本。将一个经济体描述为具韧性是不够的。它只对富人和特权阶层具有韧性。”世界银行副首席经济学家阿伊汉·科塞表示，全球经济经受住了自美以对伊朗战争以来最大的能源冲击，情况比预期要好。
"If inequality increases, if poverty deepens, that will increase their costs in the long term," she said. "It's not enough to describe an economy as resilient. It's only resilient for the rich and the privileged.”Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist at the World Bank, said the global economy had weathered its biggest energy shock - from the US-Israeli war on Iran - better than expected.
但他表示，尽管避免了全球衰退，但发展中经济体和发达经济体的增长前景都比以前更糟。
But while a global recession had been avoided, he said growth outlooks in both developing and advanced economies were worse than before.
一半发达经济体的增长已经出现下滑，而在整个发展中国家，增长速度已从4.4%大幅放缓至约3.6%。
Growth had already fallen off in half of advanced economies, while in developing countries as a whole, it had slowed significantly to around 3.6% from 4.4%.
他说：“人们真的很担心，因为今天的韧性并不能保证明天的韧性。现在他们担心下一次冲击会是什么，因为每隔六个月，甚至每隔三个月，就会有一次新的冲击。”尽管没有宣布任何具体的举措，但他表示，世界银行仍致力于帮助发展中国家为人工智能的发展做好准备，部分方式是动员更多的私人资本，目前资本规模已达到2022年的三倍。
“People are really worried because resilience today is not a guarantee for resilience tomorrow," he said. "Now they are worried about what will be the next shock, because every six months, if not every three months, there is a new shock." While no specific initiatives were announced, he said the World Bank remained focused on helping developing countries prepare for advancements in AI, in part by mobilising more private capital, now at triple the levels of 2022.
然而，世行也必须应对官方发展援助的急剧下降以及在吸引外资进入发展中国家方面持续存在的挑战。
Yet it, too, has to contend with sharp drops in official development aid and persistent challenges in attracting foreign investment to developing countries.
*他说：“地面的现实就是地面的现实。”
“The reality on the ground is the reality on the ground,” he said.