伦敦：国际货币基金组织（IMF）上周在其年度会议上抢先回应了特朗普政府要求其“回归基本职责”的诉求。气候问题和妇女权利被搁置，取而代之的是讨论公共财政的岌岌可危状况，尤其是在主要发达经济体中。
LONDON: At its annual meetings last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) pre-empted the Trump administration’s demand that it get “back to basics”. Out went climate concerns and women’s rights in favour of a discussion on the parlous state of the public finances, especially in leading advanced economies.
在开幕会上，IMF总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃表示：“我们现在对政策制定者最响亮的呼吁是什么？在裂缝扩大之前，紧急修复财政大厦。”她的信息也面向那些规模过大、无法从基金组织获得救助融资的七国集团国家。
Opening the meetings, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said: “What is our loudest call to policymakers right now? Make urgent repairs to the fiscal house before the cracks widen.”Her message was directed at G7 countries too big for rescue financing from the fund.
除了未出席在曼谷举行的会议的美国财长斯科特·贝森特外，大多数财政部长都表示赞同，并指向国内关于赤字削减的预测。立即采取行动的承诺并未出现。
Apart from the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who did not turn up at the meetings in Bangkok, most finance ministers nodded along and pointed to domestic forecasts of deficit reduction. Promises of immediate action were absent.
财政修复记录不佳 这可以理解。公共财政可以在不可持续的道路上运行很长时间，直到某事出问题。
POOR RECORD OF FISCAL REPAIR That is understandable. Public finances can run on unsustainable paths for a very long time before anything blows up.
事实上，七国集团国家的财政修复记录比格奥尔基耶娃所描述的还要糟糕。在过去十年中，IMF不得不多次上调对七国集团赤字的预期。
The record of fiscal repair among G7 countries is, in fact, worse than Georgieva outlined. Over the past decade, the IMF has repeatedly had to revise higher its expectations of G7 deficits.
在疫情之前，基金组织通常预期赤字将稳定在国内生产总值的约2.5%。本月的预测显示，赤字将稳定在6%以上，这一数字将使债务走上不断上升的道路，并最终迫使至少一个七国集团国家陷入危机。
Before the pandemic, the fund would generally expect deficits to settle at around 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product. This month’s forecasts predict stability at over 6 per cent, a figure that will put debt on an ever-rising path and eventually force at least one G7 country into crisis.
加拿大和德国完全免受市场动荡冲击的国家之列。两国债务水平低，且有审慎的历史。德国最近提高了赤字，以资助国防和投资支出，这些支出最初就不应被大幅削减。这两个国家几乎无需担忧。
Canada and Germany are entirely immune from being the countries at the sharp end of a market rout. Both have low debt and a history of prudence. Germany has raised its deficits recently to fund defence and investment expenditure, which should never have been cut so hard in the first place. This pair has little to worry about.
我也可以暂时排除日本成为“挥霍无度典型”的可能。尽管其净债务在2026年位居七国集团（G7）第二高，但多年来其赤字规模经常远小于预测值。虽然首相高市早苗等政客大谈财政扩张，但财务省仍紧握缰绳。
I can also tentatively rule Japan out of the running as the poster child for profligacy. Although its net debt is the second highest in the G7 in 2026, it has regularly run much smaller deficits than forecast over many years. While politicians such as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi talk a good game about fiscal expansion, the finance ministry keeps a tight hold of the reins.
国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁格奥尔基耶娃出席于2026年10月16日在泰国曼谷诗丽吉国家会议中心（QSNCC）举行的IMF/世界银行2026年年会全体会议。路透社记者 Patipat Janthong 摄日本之后，情况变得更复杂。意大利的净债务水平在G7中属于最高之列，但2010年至2015年的欧元区危机促使其持续实现初级盈余，且一直做到这一点。其债务率也保持稳定。这并非危机的配方。
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of IMF, attends the Annual Meetings Plenary for the IMF/World Bank 2026 Annual Meetings at Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok, Thailand, October 16, 2026. REUTERS/Patipat Janthong After Japan, things get more difficult. Italy has one of the highest net debt levels in the G7 but the Eurozone crisis of 2010 to 2015 prompted it to run persistent primary surpluses, which it has consistently achieved. Its debt ratio is also stable. This is not the recipe for a crisis.
英国或许曾在上周因其财政整固计划而受到IMF过度赞扬。下周的预算案恐将显示出偏离，英国在赤字问题上有一个恶习，像个靠不住的男朋友，总承诺节制却从不兑现。它需要证明自己能够实现赤字削减，而非仅止于口头。撞向墙壁剩下的就是法国和美国。两国不仅有承诺降低赤字却从未兑现的记录，还同时拥有高赤字和快速攀升的债务水平。根据IMF最新预测，到2031年，两国的净债务率均将超过日本，而只有日本有战胜IMF预测的记录。两国的政治环境都不利于实施赤字削减所需的改革。
The United Kingdom was perhaps excessively praised by the IMF for its fiscal consolidation plans last week. Next week’s Budget is likely to show slippage and Britain has a nasty habit of being an unreliable boyfriend on the deficit, always promising probity without delivering it. It needs to show it can achieve deficit reduction, not just talk about it. HEADING INTO A WALL That leaves France and the US. Both have a record of not only promising lower deficits that never arrive but also having high deficits and rapidly rising levels of debt. On the IMF’s latest forecasts, both will exceed Japan’s net debt ratio by 2031, and only Japan has a record of beating IMF predictions. Politics in both is hostile to the necessary reforms for deficit reduction.
在法国，极右翼领导人勒庞谈论责任，却反对养老金退休年龄改革——这正是公共财政健康的核心。更中间派的政客也无法通过预算案。在美国，两党都不认为财政审慎作为选举策略有任何好处。
In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen speaks of responsibility but has opposed the pension age reform that is central to healthier public finances. More centrist politicians cannot pass a budget. In the US, neither political party sees any benefit in fiscal prudence as an electoral strategy.
国际货币基金组织（IMF）谨慎地表示，改革刻不容缓，而非预测即将发生灾难。但财政问题颇似人口问题，除了大坝决堤的那一刻外，极易预测。
The IMF was careful to say that reform was urgent rather than predicting an imminent disaster. But fiscal problems are rather like demographics in being extremely easy to predict apart from the moment the dam breaks.
在七国集团（G7）中，法国和美国正撞向墙壁。后果将不堪设想。我们只是不知道哪个国家会率先撞车。
Among the G7, France and the US are heading into a wall. The consequences will be ugly. We just do not know which country will crash first.