迪拜，10月15日 — — 也门胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的袭击不仅仅是针对也门。
DUBAI, Oct 15 - The Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are about more than Yemen.
根据沙特、伊朗和地区消息来源的说法，胡塞武装通过袭击基础设施、扰乱沙特阿拉伯经济雄心核心的投资活动，旨在施压沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨尔曼，既要满足胡塞武装在也门的诉求，又要说服美国总统唐纳德·特朗普缓解正在扼杀伊朗经济的美国封锁。
By targeting infrastructure and disrupting investment events central to Saudi Arabia's economic ambitions, they aim to pressure Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to both meet Houthi demands in Yemen and persuade US President Donald Trump to ease the US blockade choking Iran's economy, according to Saudi, Iranian and regional sources.
此次行动反映了伊朗和胡塞武装的一种计算：即沙特阿拉伯的繁荣、投资雄心以及对扰动的脆弱性，使其成为从霍尔木兹海峡到红海的巴布·曼德布海峡这一对抗范围中的一个脆弱压力点。
The campaign reflects a calculation by Iran and the Houthis that Saudi Arabia's prosperity, investment ambitions and exposure to disruption make it a vulnerable pressure point in a confrontation stretching from the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf to Bab el-Mandeb in the Red Sea.
战略咨询公司Horizon Engage的迈克尔·奈茨表示，伊朗在美国和以色列于2月28日发动的战争之后，正面临日益加剧的经济和军事压力，试图通过针对其地区伙伴来提升华盛顿战略的成本。
Iran, under mounting economic and military pressure following the war launched by the US and Israel on February 28, is seeking to raise the cost of Washington's strategy by targeting its regional partners, said Michael Knights of strategic advisory Horizon Engage.
“伊朗人正处于被卡住的状态，”他说。由于无法直接迫使华盛顿改变方向，德黑兰和胡塞武装正“锤击沙特阿拉伯，他们在锤击薄弱点”，他补充道，利用了沙特王国的经济脆弱性和对稳定的渴望。
“The Iranians are in a chokehold,” he said. Unable to force Washington to change course directly, Tehran and the Houthis are “hammering Saudi Arabia, they’re hammering the weak point,” he added, exploiting the kingdom’s economic vulnerability and desire for stability.
胡塞武装有直接利益去缓解对伊朗的美国封锁，因为伊朗是其主要的地区支持者。对德黑兰施压的减轻很可能增强其维持政治、财政和军事支持以及武器和现金流动的能力，而美国称这些正是该运动所依赖的。
The Houthis have a direct interest in easing the US blockade on Iran, their principal regional backer. A relaxation of pressure on Tehran would likely strengthen its ability to sustain the political, financial and military support and flow of weapons and cash on which the US says the movement depends.
但胡塞武装也有他们自己的诉求，两位熟悉沙特思路的沙特消息来源和三位地区消息来源表示：结束沙特的军事行动和对也门港口及机场的限制，恢复往返伊朗的定期航班，恢复工资支付，战争赔偿，以及结束利雅得对也门被承认政府的支持。他们的条件将巩固胡塞武装对也门大部分地区的统治。
But the Houthis also have their own demands, said two Saudi sources and three regional sources familiar with Saudi thinking: an end to Saudi military operations and restrictions on Yemeni ports and airports, regular flights to Iran, restored salary payments, war compensation and an end to Riyadh’s support for Yemen’s recognised government. Their terms would consolidate Houthi rule over much of Yemen.
一名伊朗高级官员表示，胡塞武装的袭击是伊朗及其盟友通过针对能源基础设施和关键航运路线来重塑地区力量平衡的更广泛战略的一部分。他表示，利雅得不能依赖美国的保护，而必须寻求谈判，并补充说，除非沙特解除限制，否则胡塞武装的袭击将继续。
A senior Iranian official said the Houthi attacks were part of a broader strategy by Iran and its allies to reshape the regional balance of power by targeting energy infrastructure and key shipping routes. He said Riyadh could not rely on US protection and must instead pursue negotiations, adding that Houthi attacks would continue unless Saudi restrictions were lifted.
然而，熟悉沙特思维的消息人士称，这一战略却让穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（MbS）陷入两难：升级可能引发更广泛的战争，从而削弱他的转型议程；但让步又可能强化一个多年来一直挑战沙特权力的运动。而且冲突拖延得越久，对沙特安全、投资者信心以及2030愿景的威胁就越大。
The strategy, however, leaves MbS facing a dilemma, the sources familiar with Saudi thinking say. Escalation risks a wider war that could undermine his transformation agenda, but concessions risk strengthening a movement that has challenged Saudi power for years. And the longer the conflict drags on, the greater the threat to Saudi security, investor confidence and Vision 2030.
沙特政府媒体办公室、伊朗外交部以及胡塞武装发言人均未立即回应置评请求。
The Saudi government media office, Iran's foreign ministry and a Houthi spokesperson did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
胡塞武装此前曾否认自己是伊朗的代理人，并称他们自行研发武器。
The Houthis have previously denied being an Iranian proxy and said they develop their own weapons.
旗舰会议受阻 过去一周，沙特阿拉伯面临胡塞武装袭击波及范围扩大的情况，包括对利雅得哈立德国际机场的致命袭击，以及对沙特阿美（全球最大石油出口商、经济支柱）的袭击——该袭击引发火灾并蔓延至多个楼层。
FLAGSHIP CONFERENCES DISRUPTED Saudi Arabia has faced a widening wave of Houthi attacks over the past week, including deadly strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and a strike on Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter and a backbone of the economy, which sparked a fire that spread across several floors.
这些袭击扰乱了利雅得的旗舰石油会议，促使顶级石油高管撤出，并迫使主办方在未来投资倡议（FII）——一年一度的全球投资论坛——上提供远程参与选项。
The attacks have disrupted Riyadh's flagship oil conference, prompting top oil executives to withdraw, and forced organisers to offer remote participation at the Future Investment Initiative (FII), an annual global investment forum.
胡塞武装此前曾多次在沙特境内深处发动袭击，包括2019年，当时对阿美设施的袭击暂时中断了全球约5%的石油供应。此前，利雅得在2015年胡塞武装夺取也门首都萨那之后介入也门战争。该战争曾陷入血腥僵局，直至2022年达成停火。
The Houthis have a record of striking deep inside the kingdom, including in 2019, when attacks on Aramco facilities temporarily disrupted about 5% of global oil supply. That was after Riyadh intervened in Yemen in 2015 following the Houthi takeover of the capital, Sanaa. The war became a bloody stalemate before a 2022 ceasefire.
然而，沙特领导人如今已将军事压力视为唯一可行的选择，沙特海湾研究中心主席阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·萨杰尔表示。“他们已经走到了无法谈判的地步，”他说，“除了军事行动，他们别无选择。”伦敦经济学院的中东问题分析家法瓦兹·格尔格斯表示，胡塞武装越来越认为自己是在强势地位上进行谈判，寻求国际社会承认他们在萨那的权威，并放宽对也门的限制。“胡塞武装现在所寻求的，是一种胜利者的和平，”他说。
However, Saudi leaders now see military pressure as their only viable option, said Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center. "They reached a point of NO negotiations," he said. "They have no other choice except military action." The Houthis increasingly see themselves as negotiating from strength, seeking recognition of their authority in Sanaa and an easing of restrictions on Yemen, said Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East analyst at the London School of Economics. "What the Houthis are asking now is a victor's peace," he said.
熟悉沙特立场的消息人士称，自去年对胡塞武装实施空袭以应对其在红海袭击船只的行为，并随后达成停火协议以来，美国对再次发动针对胡塞武装的持久军事行动兴趣寥寥。华盛顿的这种犹豫不决，使得利雅得面临一场仅靠军事压力可能无法取得决定性结果的冲突。
The United States has shown little appetite for another sustained campaign against the Houthis since bombing them last year over attacks on shipping in the Red Sea then agreeing a ceasefire, the sources familiar with Saudi thinking said. Washington's reluctance leaves Riyadh facing a conflict in which military pressure alone may not deliver a decisive outcome.
沙特方面损失更大 胡塞武装行动初期，穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼曾请求特朗普协助对抗胡塞武装，但特朗普并未同意美军发动空袭，消息人士上月向路透社透露。华盛顿转而提供了目标定位协助和情报共享。特朗普后来表示，他正在考虑可能对胡塞武装采取行动，但似乎打算将任何回应推迟到美国中期选举之后。
SAUDIS HAVE MORE TO LOSE At the start of the Houthi campaign, MbS asked Trump for help to fight the Houthis, but Trump did not agree to US strikes, sources told Reuters last month. Washington instead offered targeting assistance and intelligence-sharing. Trump later said he was considering possible action against the Houthis, while appearing to defer any response until after the US midterm elections.
美国国务院援引了特朗普和国务卿马可·卢比奥此前的言论，后者谴责了胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的袭击。白宫尚未立即回应置评请求。
The US State Department referred to previous remarks by Trump and by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who condemned the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
随着无人机和导弹暴露出沙特防御体系的脆弱性，分析人士警告称，这场冲突有演变为消耗战的风险，而胡塞武装认为时间和地理优势都站在他们一边。前美国谈判代表亚伦·戴维·米勒表示，该组织的优势不仅在于其靠近曼德海峡这一战略要地的位置，还在于双方所面临风险的不对称性。
With drones and missiles exposing vulnerabilities in Saudi defences, analysts warn the conflict risks becoming a war of attrition in which the Houthis believe time and geography favour them. Former US negotiator Aaron David Miller said the group's advantage lies not only in its position near the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint but also in the asymmetry of what is at stake.
“沙特的基础设施比胡塞武装的基础设施要宝贵得多，”他说。“他们比沙特人失去的东西要少得多。”也门问题分析师法雷亚·穆斯利米表示，胡塞武装针对利雅得的行动旨在确立其在该地区的领导地位，但这可能引发一场波及整个阿拉伯半岛的更广泛冲突。
"Saudi infrastructure is much more valuable than Houthi infrastructure," he said. "They have so much less to lose than the Saudis." Yemen analyst Farea al-Muslimi said the Houthis' campaign against Riyadh is a bid to assert regional primacy, risking a far broader conflict across the Arabian Peninsula.
他表示，这场危机的核心在于沙特于2023年支持的和平路线图正在瓦解，而该路线图曾为胡塞武装提供了获得政治合法性和重建资金的道路。根据该路线图，利雅得本应帮助支付公共部门员工工资并资助重建工作。然而，随着胡塞武装与伊朗的关系日益紧密，红海冲突已使这一进程脱轨。
At the heart of the crisis, he says, is the unravelling of a 2023 Saudi-backed peace roadmap that offered the Houthis a path to political legitimacy and reconstruction funding. Under the roadmap, Riyadh was set to help fund public sector salaries and rebuilding. The Red Sea conflict has derailed that process as the Houthis deepen their alignment with Iran.
“我们正在走向最糟糕的结局，”穆斯利米说。“一场比2015年更严重的战争。这一次，战争将更为血腥，而沙特阿拉伯参战时拥有的盟友也将更少。”
"We're heading towards the worst outcome imaginable," al-Muslimi said. "A war worse than 2015. This time it will be bloodier, and Saudi Arabia will enter it with fewer allies."
他表示，若海湾国家无法团结，尤其是沙特阿拉伯与阿拉伯联合酋长国之间无法团结，就不可能对胡塞武装发动任何成功的军事行动。“胡塞武装的威胁不仅针对沙特阿拉伯，”他说。“他们威胁着整个海湾地区乃至更广泛的区域。这不仅仅是沙特的一场战争，而是一场海湾战争。”路透社
He said no successful campaign against the Houthis was possible without Gulf unity, mainly between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. "The Houthis are not a threat to Saudi Arabia alone," he said. "They threaten the entire Gulf and the wider region. This is not simply a Saudi war. It is a Gulf war." REUTERS