伦敦，10月15日——过去一周，控制也门西北部的胡塞武装对利雅得国际机场发动袭击，并击中了全球最大石油公司——沙特阿美的总部。这些空袭暴露出沙特阿拉伯在面对邻国敌对势力的威胁时极为脆弱。
LONDON, Oct 15 - Houthi militants who control northwestern Yemen have in the past week attacked Riyadh international airport and hit the headquarters of Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company, in air assaults that have laid bare Saudi Arabia's vulnerability to threats from its enemy next door. The attacks are shattering the illusion of Saudi Arabia as a safe international investment hub as it tries to attract foreign money and diversify away from oil.
这些袭击打破了沙特作为安全国际投资目的地的假象。目前，沙特正努力吸引外资并实现经济多元化，减少对石油的依赖。
This nightmare scenario for a key US ally in the Gulf has been years in the making, weapons and regional experts say. They attribute Saudi Arabia's vulnerability to a ragtag group of Yemeni fighters to a perfect storm of factors that include Tehran helping the Houthis reach near self-sufficiency in producing and deploying advanced weapons, and the impact of the US war on Iran that has depleted stocks of interceptors.
武器及地区问题专家称，这个对美国在海湾地区重要盟友而言堪称噩梦的局面其实早已酝酿多年。
TRAINING TO SELF-SUFFICIENCY BY IRAN Iran has been giving weapons, money and training to the Houthis, known formally as Ansar Allah, for more than a decade, although Tehran has officially denied arming the Houthis in violation of a UN arms embargo.
他们认为，沙特之所以会遭到这支乌合之众般的也门武装组织的攻击，是多种因素共同作用的结果：德黑兰协助胡塞武装实现了先进武器的自主生产与部署；而美国对伊朗的军事行动则耗尽了沙特的拦截武器储备。伊朗助力胡塞武装实现自给自足路透社采访的专家指出，十多年来，伊朗一直向正式名称为“安萨尔·阿拉”的胡塞武装提供武器、资金及训练，尽管德黑兰官方始终否认违反联合国武器禁运令向胡塞武装提供武装。
While Iran has come under its own financial and military strains due to war and sanctions, the Houthis have learned – with Iranian help – how to assemble their own weapons, including drones and missiles, the experts interviewed by Reuters said. Iran's Revolutionary Guards and members of Iran's other ally, Lebanese Hezbollah, initially gave the Houthis knowledge of missile systems and their operation, said Andreas Krieg, senior security studies lecturer at King's College London.
尽管战争与制裁给伊朗自身带来了财政与军事压力，但在伊朗的帮助下，胡塞武装已掌握了自行组装无人机、导弹等各类武器的技术。
"Former Yemeni military engineers and a growing generation of locally trained specialists have helped institutionalise these capabilities," he said.
伦敦国王学院安全研究高级讲师安德烈亚斯·克里格表示，最初是伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队以及伊朗的另一盟友——黎巴嫩真主党成员向胡塞武装传授了导弹系统及其操作知识。
"Tehran has not simply supplied the Houthis with weapons.
他补充道：“前也门军事工程师以及一批在当地接受培训的年轻专业人才，共同促成了这些能力的制度化。”
It has helped create an indigenous military-industrial learning process that becomes progressively harder to dismantle, even if direct Iranian supply routes are disrupted."
“德黑兰并不仅仅是向胡塞武装提供武器。它还帮助胡塞武装建立起一套本土化的军事工业体系，即便伊朗的直接供应渠道被切断，这一体系也难以被瓦解。”伊朗分析人士指出，正因如此，胡塞武装如今已成为伊朗最具成本效益且最有价值的军事代理人。
Iranian analysts said that the Houthis have in this way become one of the most cost-effective and valuable military proxies of Iran. "The Revolutionary Guards were forward-looking.
“伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队具有前瞻性眼光。他们考虑到如果胡塞武装无法直接从伊朗获得装备或武器，或者这些物资被美国盟友部队截获，将会出现何种情况，”伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队前政治顾问哈米德·尼库说道。
They looked at what happened if the Houthis couldn't receive equipment or weapons directly (from Iran), or if these were seized by US-allied forces," said Hamid Nikou, a former political advisor to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
尼库称，这一战略包括向胡塞武装传授如何组装军民两用零部件以制造无人机乃至弹道导弹。“实际上，伊朗教会了胡塞武装如何‘捕鱼’，”尼库说道。
Nikou said this strategy included teaching the Houthis how to assemble dual-use parts to make drones and even ballistic missiles. "Iran has basically taught the Houthis how to fish," Nikou said.
在也门与胡塞武装作战的沙特主导的军事联盟称，他们已拦截了多枚胡塞武装向沙特城市发射的导弹，并摧毁了127处胡塞武装的武器储存设施及发射平台。
The Saudi-led military coalition fighting against the Houthis in Yemen says it has intercepted a number of missiles fired by the Houthis at Saudi cities, and that it has destroyed 127 Houthi weapons storage facilities and launch platforms.
联盟发言人图尔基·马利基在新闻发布会上表示，在“地区势力”的协助下，胡塞武装获得了先进的军事技术，包括弹道导弹、无人机以及装载炸药的快速攻击艇。
Coalition spokesperson Turki al-Maliki told a press conference the Houthis had acquired advanced military technology with the help of "regional actors," including ballistic missiles, drones and explosive-laden fast boats.
武器进口与技术来源多元化胡塞武装在自主制造武器方面的优势在于，他们并不单纯依赖伊朗制造的装备或从伊朗进口的物资。
DIVERSIFYING WEAPONS IMPORTS AND TECHNOLOGY A key strength of the Houthis in building their own weapons is that they don't rely solely on Iranian-made equipment or imports coming from Iran.
冲突军备研究组织本周发布报告称，在也门得到国际承认的政府截获了一批相关零部件后，胡塞武装试图利用从中国进口的部件来制造先进的中程弹道导弹。
The Conflict Armament Research organization said in a report this week that the Houthis were attempting to make advanced medium-range ballistic missiles using parts shipped from China, after Yemen's internationally recognised government seized one such shipment.
“中国如今已成为极为重要的商业物资供应源；与此同时，伊朗则继续提供那些难以通过商业渠道获取的特种军事技术、专业知识和零部件，”克里格说道。胡塞武装也尝试使用人工智能，以提升其武器的有效性。
"China has emerged as a particularly important commercial source, while Iran continues to provide specialised military technology, technical expertise and components that are difficult to obtain commercially," Krieg said. The Houthis have also experimented with artificial intelligence in efforts to improve their weapons' effectiveness.
人工智能公司Anthropic上个月表示，“一支位于也门北部的威胁行为者小组”曾使用其Claude AI助手，帮助开发制导火箭的软件，该软件用于一种射程超过2000公里（1240英里）的计划中的弹道导弹，以及一种结合高超声速滑翔器的导弹变体。
Anthropic said last month that "a cell of threat actors based in northern Yemen" had used its Claude AI assistant to help develop software for a guided rocket, a planned ballistic missile with a range of more than 2,000 km (1,240 miles) and a missile variant incorporating a hypersonic glide vehicle.
战争疲劳，弹药耗竭 尽管胡塞武装已经提升了武器生产能力，但美国在该地区的盟友自美国和以色列于2月下旬对伊朗发动攻击以来，其防空系统一直处于紧张状态。
WAR FATIGUE, DEPLETED MUNITIONS While the Houthis have improved their weapons production, US allies in the region have seen their air defences stretched since the war that began when the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February.
美国在该地区部署了大量导弹拦截器，用于保护其基地及其盟友——包括以色列和海湾国家——这导致一些地区变得脆弱，特别是沙特阿拉伯。
The United States has used large amounts of the missile interceptors it deploys in the region to protect its bases and its allies, which include Israel and Gulf countries, leaving some vulnerable, Saudi Arabia in particular.
“沙特阿拉伯在军队的复杂程度和一体化防空网络的发展方面，尚未真正达到以色列或乌克兰的水平，而且它面临着一项非常艰巨的任务，”日内瓦高等研究院的中东问题专家法尔赞·萨贝特说。
"Saudi Arabia, in terms of the sophistication of the military and the development of an integrated air defence network, is not really yet at the level of either Israel or Ukraine, and it just has a very tough job to do," said Farzan Sabet, a Middle East expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute.
他表示，沙特阿拉伯的广袤领土使其在抵御空袭方面比保卫以色列或美国基地更具挑战性。
Saudi Arabia's sheer size makes defence against air attacks harder than defending Israel or a US base, he said.
战争经验 萨贝特表示，胡塞武装从近年来该地区暴力程度的增加中汲取了经验。
WAR EXPERIENCE The Houthis have learned from the increased levels of violence in the region in recent years, Sabet said.
也门内战自2014年起，胡塞武装与沙特支持的武装力量交战，直至2022年陷入脆弱的停火状态。但2023年以色列对加沙的袭击——该袭击是在哈马斯领导的致命袭击以色列之后发生的——促使胡塞武装开始向以色列发射火箭弹，并瞄准通过红海的航运。
A Yemeni civil war, in which the Houthis battled Saudi-backed forces from 2014, settled into a shaky ceasefire in 2022. But after Israel’s assault on Gaza in 2023, which followed deadly Hamas-led attacks on Israel, the Houthis began firing rockets at Israel and targeting shipping through the Red Sea.
今年美伊战争的余波重新点燃了也门内战，到那时胡塞武装已经发展出了新的能力。
The fallout from the US-Iran war this year reignited the Yemeni civil war, by which time the Houthis had developed new capabilities.
“他们一直没有闲着，”萨贝特说。“他们基本上在多元化供应链……随着他们积累作战经验，他们能够让这些武器变得更加复杂。”路透社
"They haven't been sitting still," Sabet said. "They were basically diversifying their supply chains... and as they gain operational experience, they're able to make those weapons more sophisticated." REUTERS