字号·· | 护眼
美联社

沙特阿拉伯为何难以抵御胡塞武装近期的袭击Why Saudi Arabia has struggled to defend itself against the Houthis' recent attacks

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

2026年10月9日星期五,在也门萨那举行的一场支持胡塞武装的集会上,一名身着军装的胡塞武装支持者手持一枚模拟导弹。(美联社照片/奥萨马·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼)A Houthi supporter wearing a military uniform holds a mock missile during a rally in support of the group, in Sanaa, Yemen, Friday, Oct. 9, 2026. (AP Photo/Osamah Abdulrahman)

沙特阿拉伯拥有世界上最昂贵、最先进的武器库之一,装备有美国战机、导弹防御系统和其他技术。

Saudi Arabia has one of the world’s most expensive and sophisticated arsenals, filled with American warplanes, missile defenses and other technology.

萨姆·麦克尼尔 沙特阿拉伯 但最近几天,面对也门胡塞武装叛乱组织发射的导弹和无人机弹雨,沙特阿拉伯似乎显得无助。这些袭击击中了沙特机场,造成至少14人死亡,迫使学生和商务人士留在室内,在家工作。

SAM McNEIL Saudi Arabia But in recent days it has appeared helpless in the face of barrages of missiles and drones fired by the Houthi rebel group from neighboring Yemen The attacks have struck Saudi airports killed at least 14 people and forced schoolchildren and businesspeople to stay indoors and work from home.

伊朗支持的胡塞武装曾被视为仅仅是一支杂乱无章的民兵,如今已发展成为一支 formidable 的作战力量。他们对该地区最大的石油生产国造成了破坏,威胁红海的关键供应航线,现在有可能重新点燃阿拉伯半岛的全面战争,这场战争曾导致数百万人流离失所,造成数万人死亡。

Iran-backed Houthis, once seen as little more than a ragtag militia, have grown into a formidable fighting force They have inflicted damage on the region’s top oil producer, threatened critical supply routes in the Red Sea and now risk reigniting a full-scale war on the Arabian Peninsula that displaced millions and killed tens of thousands.

胡塞武装袭击沙特阿拉伯是因为沙特支持也门政府军,而叛乱分子试图推翻该政府。随着沙特阿拉伯调查其防空系统为何未能阻止胡塞武装的袭击,它还必须考虑如何应对以及叛乱分子可能采取的下一步行动。以下是我们对沙特和胡塞冲突所知道和不知道的情况:沙特阿拉伯拥有大量美国武器 据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所称,沙特阿拉伯是全球最大的美国武器买家。该机构表示,沙特阿拉伯在2021年至2025年间收到了美国所有武器出口的12%。

The Houthis are attacking Saudi Arabia because it supports government forces in Yemen the rebels seek to overthrow. As Saudi Arabia investigates how its air defenses failed to stop the Houthis’ attacks, it must also consider how to respond and what the rebels might do next. Here’s what we know and don’t know about the Saudi and Houthi conflict: Saudi Arabia has a vast arsenal of US weapons Saudi Arabia is the world’s top purchaser of American weapons, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. It says the Saudis received 12% of all U.S. arms exports from 2021-2025.

多年来,沙特阿拉伯采购了美国的F-15战机、爱国者防空系统,以及先进的雷达和进攻性导弹系统,据该智库称,该机构追踪全球武器转移情况。

Over the years, the Saudis have purchased American F-15 warplanes, Patriot air defense systems, as well as advanced radars and offensive missile systems, according to the think tank, which tracks global arms transfers.

沙特阿拉伯2026年的年度预算列明军事开支为830亿美元。今年早些时候,它与华盛顿达成了一项价值90亿美元的协议,采购730枚爱国者导弹。但沙特阿拉伯需要防御的区域非常广阔。胡塞武装能够利用沙特阿拉伯幅员辽阔的特点。

Saudi Arabia’s annual budget for 2026 listed $83 billion for military expenditures. Earlier this year, it struck a $9 billion deal with Washington for 730 Patriot missiles But it has a huge area to defend The Houthis have been able to exploit Saudi Arabia’s large size. Vulnerable energy, civilian and military assets are scattered across the country’s sparsely populated territory roughly three times the size of Texas.

脆弱的能源、民用和军事资产散布在该国人口稀疏的领土上,面积大约是得克萨斯州的三倍。其与也门的边境延伸超过1300公里(800英里),穿越崎岖的沙漠地区。

Its border with Yemen stretches more than 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) through rugged desert areas.

“期望一个沙特阿拉伯这么大的国家拦截每一枚导弹,这根本不现实。没有任何防御能够保证完全防护,”沙特分析师阿里·希哈比周一在网上的一篇帖子中表示。

“Expecting a country the size of Saudi Arabia to intercept every missile is simply unrealistic. No defense can guarantee complete protection,” Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst, said in a post online Monday.

与此同时,地区官员表示,沙特阿拉伯的拦截弹药正在减少,已向盟友寻求帮助。

At the same time, regional officials say that Saudi Arabia is running low on interceptors and has reached out to allies for help.

沙特阿拉伯最近与巴基斯坦和土耳其达成了一项联合防御协议。但到目前为止,这两个国家似乎大多在旁观,或仅限于提供有限的支持。

Saudi Arabia recently struck a joint defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey. But so far, the two countries appear to be largely staying on the sidelines or limiting their support.

特朗普总统本周表示,他正在评估美国是否应该加入沙特对胡塞武装的打击。但他尚未宣布决定。

President Donald Trump said this week he is evaluating whether the U.S. should join Saudi strikes on the Houthis. But he has not yet announced a decision.

胡塞武装的武器和战术经过了实战检验。就像他们的后援国伊朗一样,胡塞武装通过发挥自身优势——主要是无人机和导弹——在21世纪部署了不对称战争。对胡塞武装而言,战场上的成功不需要推翻沙特阿拉伯;扰乱沙特经济并在其社会中制造恐惧,可能就足以让胡塞武装在任何可能结束战斗的谈判中获得筹码。

Houthi weapons and tactics are battle-tested Like their patron Iran, the Houthis have deployed asymmetric warfare for the 21st century by capitalizing on their strengths — primarily drones and missiles. For the Houthis, success on the battlefield doesn’t require toppling Saudi Arabia; disrupting the Saudi economy and sowing fear within its society may be enough to give the Houthis leverage in any possible negotiations to end the fighting.

胡塞武装拥有一支庞大的武器库,能够打击超过1000英里(1600公里)以外的目标。一些弹头在飞行过程中会改变方向,给防空系统带来额外挑战。

The Houthis have a large arsenal capable of striking targets well over 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) away. Some warheads change direction during flight and pose an extra challenge to air defenses.

自2023年10月加沙战争爆发以来,该组织已向以色列发射了数百架无人机和导弹。虽然大多数被拦截,但少数成功击中目标,其中一次导致一名以色列男子死亡。另一次袭击去年击中了一座以色列机场。

The group has fired hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel since its war in Gaza erupted in October 2023. While most were intercepted, a handful managed to land, in one case killing an Israeli man. Another strike hit an Israeli airport last year.

伦敦国王学院教授安德烈斯·克里格表示,这次在挑战以色列尖端防空系统中的经历,使胡塞武装在现在对沙特阿拉伯发动袭击时获得了信心和专业知识。“他们学会了如何使雷达饱和过载,”他说。

Andreas Krieg, a professor at King’s College London, said this experience in challenging Israel’s cutting-edge air defenses has given the Houthis confidence and expertise as they now strike Saudi Arabia. “They’ve learned how to over-saturate the radars,” he said.

胡塞武装与伊拉克的盟友民兵合作,还袭击了沙特的石油设施,包括一条用于通过红海输出石油的关键管道,而在霍尔木兹海峡通行受限的情况下,该管道尤为重要。胡塞武装还夺取了也门靠近曼德海峡的领土,曼德海峡是红海的重要水道,这进一步加大了对沙特石油出口的压力。

The Houthis, working with allied militias in Iraq, have also targeted Saudi oil installations, including a vital pipeline used to export oil through the Red Sea while movement through the Strait of Hormuz is limited. The Houthis have also seized territory in Yemen near the Bab el-Mandeb, a key Red Sea waterway, putting additional pressure on Saudi oil exports.

沙特阿拉伯似乎误判了局势。前美国驻沙特大使迈克尔·拉特尼表示,王国曾认为胡塞武装不会袭击机场等民用目标。他指出,这一举动标志着“范式的转变”。

Saudi Arabia appears to have miscalculated Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia, says the kingdom assumed the Houthis wouldn’t strike civilian targets like airports. Doing so marked “a paradigm shift,” he said.

拉特尼目前是战略与国际问题研究中心的顾问,他说,沙特现在发现自己处于一个既必须作出回应,又试图防止战斗失控的境地。

Ratney, now an adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the Saudis now find themselves in a position where they have to respond while also trying to prevent the fighting from spinning out of control.

“他们不能不还击——他们曾被死敌以极其残忍的方式攻击,”他说。“他们需要对胡塞武装施加军事压力,然后寻找某种方式来缓和局势。”与其派兵进入也门,沙特更可能对胡塞武装发动空袭,并加强对民族主义力量的支持,几位分析人士表示。“这将是代理人战争,”克里格说。

“They can’t not strike back — they were attacked in a very brutal way by their archenemies,” he said. “They need to exert military pressure on the Houthis and then find a way to kind of deescalate.”Rather than sending troops into Yemen, the Saudis will likely launch airstrikes against the Houthis and ramp up support of nationalist forces, several analysts said. “It will be surrogate warfare,” Krieg said.

胡塞武装如今已成为一股 formidable 力量。虽然胡塞武装没有沙特阿拉伯那样的火力,但得益于伊朗的帮助,他们已经发展成为一股可怕的力量,控制着也门大约三分之一的领土。

The Houthis are now a formidable force While the Houthis don’t have the firepower of Saudi Arabia, they have grown into a fearsome force controlling roughly one-third of Yemen thanks to help from Iran.

联合国估计,到2024年,胡塞武装的武装人员人数已增至多达35万人。这一数字较2015年的3万人有了显著增长——当时沙特阿拉伯干预了国际公认的也门政府与胡塞武装之间的内战,并实施了海上封锁。

The United Nations estimates that the Houthis by 2024 had recruited up to 350,000 fighters. That’s up from just 30,000 in 2015, when Saudi Arabia intervened in the internationally recognized Yemeni government’s civil war against the Houthis and imposed a naval blockade.

拉特尼表示,胡塞武装现在与伊朗存在“共生关系”,不应被视为伊朗的傀儡。

Ratney says the Houthis now have a “symbiotic relationship” with Iran and should not be seen as an Iranian puppet.

对沙特机场和经济资产的袭击,象征着胡塞武装与伊朗人在非对称战争方面的经验共享:不仅如何穿透昂贵的防空系统,还如何破坏脆弱的能源设施并威胁全球海上航线。

The strikes on Saudi airports and economic assets symbolize a sharing of lessons in asymmetric warfare between the Houthis and the Iranians: how to not just puncture expensive air defenses, but also damage vulnerable energy installations and threaten global maritime routes.

“过去几年里,伊朗人一直在创新并与胡塞武装分享,这是双向的。胡塞武装也在创新,并与伊朗人分享,”拉特尼说。“他们最终采取相似的方法绝非巧合。”

“Over the course of the past few years, the Iranians have been innovating and sharing that with the Houthis and it’s gone both ways. The Houthis have been innovating, and sharing it with the Iranians,” Ratney said. “It’s no coincidence that they’ve ended up with a similar approach.”

皇家国际问题研究所专注于也门事务的研究员法里亚·阿勒-穆斯利米表示,近期的军事成功让胡塞武装感到“触之不及”。

Their recent military successes have made the Houthis feel “untouchable,” said Farea Al-Muslimi, a fellow at Chatham House focused on Yemen.

他说:“如果一个人刚刚前进且手里拿着枪,很难说服他走错了路。”但他表示,胡塞武装现在很可能面临沙特的残酷反击。

“It’s very hard to convince a man he’s going on the wrong side if he just moved forward and he has a gun in his hand,” he said. But the Houthis are now likely to suffer a brutal Saudi counterattack, he said.

美联社记者开罗的萨米·马格迪、耶路撒冷的萨姆·梅茨和以色列特拉维夫的梅拉尼·利德曼参与了报道。

Associated Press writers Samy Magdy in Cairo, Sam Metz in Jerusalem, and Melanie Lidman in Tel Aviv, Israel, contributed reporting.