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沙特为何难以阻止胡塞武装袭击?Why Does Saudi Arabia Struggle to Stop Houthi Attacks?

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沙特军队拥有昂贵的装备,但也门民兵使用的导弹和无人机难以探测和拦截。

The Saudi military has expensive equipment, but the missiles and drones used by the Yemeni militia are difficult to detect and stop.

几十年来,沙特阿拉伯已投资数千亿美元建立了一支先进的军队,使其成为全球军费开支排名前十的国家之一。

Over decades, Saudi Arabia has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in building an advanced military, putting the kingdom among the top 10 nations in terms of arms spending.

尽管如此,该国在应对伊朗支持的胡塞民兵的致命袭击方面步履维艰,近几个月的战斗重新点燃了沙特王国于2015年发动的战争。

Still, the country has stumbled in response to deadly attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi militia, with the fighting in recent months reigniting a war that the kingdom began in 2015.

部分问题在于,沙特阿拉伯在拥有一些军事分析人士称之为“闪光因素”的武器上投入巨资——例如高科技战斗机和最新的导弹拦截器。但胡塞武装分子经常部署廉价无人机或低空飞行的巡航导弹,沙特军队难以探测。

The problem in part is that Saudi Arabia invested heavily in weapons having what some military analysts call a “glitter factor” — things like high-tech fighter jets and the latest missile interceptors. But the Houthi guerrillas often deploy cheap drones or low-flying cruise missiles that Saudi forces struggle to detect.

此外,沙特防务的建设是基于这样的假设,即最大的威胁将来自东方或东北方,来自伊朗或伊拉克,而不是来自西南方的也门。因此,分析人士说,该国暴露在外。

In addition, Saudi defenses were built assuming that the biggest threat would come from the east or northeast, from Iran or Iraq, not from Yemen to the southwest. So the country was left somewhat exposed, analysts said.

最后,该王国直到最近才开始解决长期存在的系统性问题。为了使沙特王朝免受困扰大多数阿拉伯国家的军事政变的影响,军队被建成了两个相互竞争的部门。分析人士说,每个部门都存在高度集中的决策,这限制了灵活性。

Finally, the kingdom only recently started to address longstanding systemic problems. To inoculate the Saud dynasty against the military coups that plagued most Arab states, the military was built as two competing branches. Each suffers from highly centralized decision-making which limits flexibility. analysts said.

伦敦国防研究机构皇家联合军事研究所的中东安全问题专家布尔朱·厄兹切利克说:“这对利雅得来说是一个极其令人不安的时刻,在许多方面都令人感到羞辱。”

“It’s a hugely rattling moment for Riyadh, humiliating on a number of fronts,” said Burcu Ozcelik, an expert on Middle East security issues at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense research organization in London.

她补充道:“在建设硬核军事实力方面,一直有非常可观且长期的投入。”但问题在于准备情况。沙特阿拉伯对此类被胡塞武装称为闪电般速度的进攻有多少准备?几天来,胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯境内深处的基础设施、能源和军事目标发动了反复袭击。周六,一枚巡航导弹击中了首都利雅得的一座国内机场航站楼,造成至少13人死亡、300多人受伤。这是十多年来对该王国最严重的袭击。

“There has been a very substantial, longstanding investment in building up hard military capabilities,” she added. “But the issue is preparedness. How ready were the Saudis for this kind of lightning-speed offensive, as it is being called by the Houthis?”For days, the Houthis have launched repeated attacks on infrastructure, energy and military targets deep within Saudi Arabia. A cruise missile that struck a domestic airport terminal in Riyadh, the capital, on Saturday, killed at least 13 people and wounded more than 300 others. It was the worst attack on the kingdom in over a decade.

胡塞武装的军事发言人周日在社交媒体上发表声明,详细列出了无人机和导弹袭击的多个目标。

The military spokesman for the Houthis issued a statement on social media on Sunday detailing multiple sites targeted by drones and missiles.

胡塞武装发言人叶海亚·萨里表示:“也门武装部队将以升级的方式继续对沙特内部进行行动,”并补充说,袭击将持续到沙特停止对也门的攻击为止。胡塞武装还在也门和非洲之间的巴布·曼德布海峡阻断沙特向亚洲的石油运输。

“The Yemeni armed forces will continue their operations in an escalating manner toward the Saudi interior,” the Houthi spokesman, Yahya Saree, said, adding that the strikes would continue until the kingdom stopped attacking Yemen. Houthi forces are also blocking Saudi oil shipments to Asia through the Bab al-Mandab Strait between Yemen and Africa.

沙特阿拉伯誓言进行报复。“最近几周的事件十分严重,”能源大臣阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼王子在机场遭袭后不久于利雅得参加的一次国际会议上表示。“我们的回应也必须同样严肃。”2015年,当时担任国防部长的沙特王子穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼发动了对胡塞武装的战争,胡塞武装是一个追求千年主义的什叶派穆斯林宗派,企图推翻也门政府。穆罕默德王子曾表示,击败他们只需数周时间。他于2017年成为王储,如今是沙特阿拉伯事实上的统治者。

Saudi Arabia vowed retaliation. “The events of recent weeks are serious,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the energy minister, said at an international conference in Riyadh soon after the attack on the airport. “Our response must be equally serious.”In 2015, Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, then defense minister, ignited the war against the Houthis, a Shiite Muslim millenarian sect seeking to unseat the Yemeni government. Routing them would take weeks, said Prince Mohammed, who became crown prince in 2017 and is now Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler.

然而,这场战争却陷入了泥潭。联合国于2022年斡旋达成停火,但随着美国和以色列对伊朗的攻击加剧紧张局势,冲突又再次爆发。

Instead the war became a quagmire. The United Nations brokered a cease-fire in 2022, but the conflict flared anew amid tensions over the United States and Israel attacking Iran.

鉴于胡塞武装在2015年战争初期向沙特阿拉伯发射了数百枚导弹,负责保护沙特领空的独立军事分支——沙特皇家防空部队,因此获得了使用爱国者导弹作战的独特经验。波斯湾问题专家、教授兼前五角大楼政策主管戴维·德·罗什(David Des Roches)表示。

Given that the Houthis fired hundreds of missiles at Saudi Arabia during the initial war starting in 2015, the Royal Saudi Air Defense Force, the separate military wing that protects Saudi airspace, gained unique experience firing Patriot missiles, said David Des Roches, a professor and former Pentagon policy director for the Persian Gulf.

爱国者导弹是一种昂贵的机动式地对空防御系统,由美国销售,包括先进的雷达和拦截导弹。

Patriots are expensive, mobile, surface-to-air defense systems sold by the United States and consisting of advanced radar and interceptor missiles.

根据美国国务院的数据,自2020年以来,华盛顿已向沙特阿拉伯出售了至少730枚爱国者拦截弹。

Since 2020, Washington has sold Saudi Arabia at least 730 Patriot interceptors, according to figures from the U.S. State Department.

但爱国者导弹的设计目的是击落弹道导弹,这类导弹遵循高而固定的飞行轨迹,因此可以被追踪。沙特阿拉伯同样从美国采购的“萨德”(THAAD)拦截弹,则用于击落飞行高度更高的导弹。

But Patriot missiles are designed to knock down ballistic missiles, which follow a high, fixed trajectory that can be tracked. THAAD interceptors, which Saudi Arabia has also purchased from the United States, are meant to hit missiles flying even higher.

因此,与胡塞武装的战斗具有不对称性。分析人士指出,用一枚售价超过300万美元的爱国者导弹来击落一架成本仅1.5万至2.5万美元的无人机,无异于用锤子拍打蚊子。

So the fight against the Houthis is asymmetrical. Using a Patriot missile bought for over $3 million to shoot down a drone costing $15,000 to $25,000 is akin to trying to swat a mosquito with a hammer, analysts said.

此外,由于乌克兰和中东地区的战争,全球范围内都出现了拦截弹供应短缺的问题。

Also, because of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, there is an interceptor supply shortage worldwide.

根据联合国安理会的一份报告,自胡塞武装开始战斗以来,其武器库已变得更加强大,该民兵组织如今已经开始自行制造部分武器,并逐步减少对伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的依赖。

Since the Houthis began fighting, their arsenal has become more robust, with the militia now manufacturing some weapons and diversifying supplies away from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, according to a U.N. Security Council report.

雷达问题也是沙特阿拉伯面临的关键挑战。胡塞武装使用的无人机和巡航导弹——尽管载弹量较轻,但仍足以摧毁民用目标——通常以低空飞行且能够改变方向。“如果没有雷达覆盖,要在远距离发现它们会非常困难,”阿拉伯军事效能研究书籍《沙之军队》(Armies of Sand)的作者肯尼斯·M·波拉克(Kenneth M. Pollack)表示。

Radar is also a key issue for Saudi Arabia. Drones and cruise missiles that the Houthis use — with a lighter payload still capable of decimating civilian targets — fly at low altitudes and can change direction. “It can be tough to find them at long range if you don’t have radar coverage,” said Kenneth M. Pollack, author of “Armies of Sand,” a book about Arab military effectiveness.

沙特阿拉伯幅员辽阔,防御困难。分析人士表示,由于该王国长期担忧针对波斯湾沿岸、石油资源核心的东部省份的袭击,已在该地区集中部署最先进的防空系统,包括多层雷达装置和导弹拦截器。

Saudi Arabia is immense and hard to protect. Since the kingdom has long feared attacks against the Eastern Province, the heart of its oil resources along the Persian Gulf, it has concentrated there the most sophisticated air defenses, including layers of radar installations and missile interceptors, analysts said.

复杂的雷达装置不可移动,虽有部分面向也门,但均为地面固定。其视距受限,往往在投射物低空穿越也门山地、已进入沙特领空后才被探测到,导致对平民的警报时常出现不规律。该王国需要更多机载雷达,以便更早识别这些投射物。

Complex radar installations are not mobile, and although some face Yemen, they are ground-based. Their lack of reach over the horizon means they often do not detect projectiles zipping low through Yemen’s mountainous terrain until they are already over Saudi Arabia, leading to erratic warnings to civilians. The kingdom requires more airborne radar to identify them earlier.

虽然喷气式战斗机的设计初衷是对抗其他喷气式战斗机,但也可用于拦截无人机和导弹。不过,分析人士指出,必须先获知其飞行轨迹后才能出动。(乌克兰使用声学传感器帮助探测无人机。)沙特拥有数百架战斗机,主要是美国的F-15以及欧洲战斗机台风。

Although jet fighters are designed to confront other jet fighters, they can be used against drones and missiles. But they need to be alerted to their trajectory, analysts said. (Ukraine uses acoustic censors to help detect drones.) Saudi Arabia has several hundred fighter jets — mostly F-15s from the United States plus Eurofighter Typhoons.

2024年4月,伊朗一次性向以色列发射300余枚投射物时,以色列与美国以及英国、法国、约旦共同拦截了大部分。广域且重叠的雷达覆盖定位了这些投射物,战斗机击落了包括无人机在内的较小目标,而以色列的地基拦截系统则处理了高空的导弹。即便如此,仍有部分未被拦截。除无人机作战外,沙特军方还面临结构性问题。

In April 2024, when Iran launched more than 300 projectiles at once against Israel, Israel and the United States, along with Britain, France and Jordan, intercepted most of them. Wide, overlapping radar coverage pinpointed the projectiles, with fighter jets shooting down the smaller threats including drones while Israel’s ground-based interceptors handled missiles at higher altitudes. Even so, not everything was intercepted. Aside from drone warfare, the Saudi military has been grappling with structural problems.

根据独立的斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据,其当前年度军费开支超过820亿美元,但部队仍分为两个体系。常规军约有25万人,而沙特阿拉伯国家警卫队约有12.5万人。国家警卫队长期从忠于沙特王室的部族中招募,并针对可能的国内叛乱进行训练。

Its current annual military budget is more than $82 billion, according to the independent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, but the force remains divided into two silos. The regular military has around 250,000 troops, while the Saudi Arabian National Guard includes about 125,000. The National Guard has long recruited from tribes loyal to the Saud dynasty, and trains against possible domestic insurgency.

分析师表示,王子们掌控着两股力量,而僵化的自上而下指挥结构则阻碍了前线行动的主动性。

Princes dominate both forces, analysts said, and the rigid, top-down command structure thwarts initiative in the field.

穆罕默德王子将精简军队纳入了其“2030愿景”王国发展计划的一部分,该计划包括2018年解雇多名高级指挥官。他还曾在利雅得设立联合行动指挥部以协调军事决策,但分析师认为整体变革进展缓慢。例如,他们指出,军队在维护高科技武器方面仍存在困难,而这项工作通常由西方承包商负责。

Prince Mohammed made streamlining the military part of his Vision 2030 plan for developing the kingdom, which included the firing of several senior commanders in 2018. He also established a joint operational command in Riyadh to coordinate military decisions, but analysts called the overall changes slow. For example, they said, the military still struggles with maintaining high-tech weapons, a job often done by Western contractors.

在对峙胡塞武装方面,沙特阿拉伯预计不会发动地面入侵,因为那将是一场血腥的持久战,试图将游击队从山区据点中驱逐出去。也门境内,由沙特支持的反胡塞联盟因内部分裂和缺乏组织而陷入困境。

In confronting the Houthis, Saudi Arabia is not expected to mount a ground invasion that would require a bloody slog to try to dislodge the guerrillas from their mountain redoubts. Inside Yemen, division and disorganization mars the anti-Houthi coalition backed by the Saudis.

由于特朗普总统拒绝了利雅得近期的援助请求,沙特阿拉伯援引了去年八月与巴基斯坦和土耳其签署的相互防御条约。分析师称,这些国家预计将在情报和通信等方面提供协助。

With President Trump denying Riyadh’s recent requests for help, Saudi Arabia invoked a mutual defense pact that it signed with Pakistan and Turkey last August. Those countries are expected to aid matters like intelligence and communications, analysts said.

仅靠重启空袭行动可能不足以击败胡塞武装。新加坡国立大学的中东问题专家让-卢普·萨曼表示:“沙特实际上已经尝试过所有能做的。”他补充说,也门境内根本不存在可行的替代胡塞武装的力量。

A renewed air campaign alone would probably be insufficient to defeat the Houthis. “There is nothing really that the Saudis did not already try,” said Jean-Loup Samaan, a Middle East expert at the National University of Singapore. Mainly, there is no viable alternative to the Houthis inside Yemen, he added.

短期内达成政治谈判解决方案似乎不太可能。在特朗普先生发起的对伊朗战争中,伊朗方面希望胡塞武装能提升冲突对华盛顿和沙特(美国的关键盟友)双方的代价。寻求更大权力的胡塞武装,正逐渐成为伊朗代理人中该地区最强大的力量,而德黑兰将其称为“抵抗之弧”。2025年,美国与胡塞武装的对抗曾陷入僵局长达四个月,而特朗普先生似乎并无重启冲突的意愿。尽管如此,胡塞武装仍代表着一项战略困境。

A negotiated political solution anytime soon seems unlikely. Amid a war against Iran inaugurated by Mr. Trump, the Iranians want the Houthis to ratchet up the cost of the conflict for both Washington and Riyadh, a crucial U.S. ally. The Houthis, who seek more power, are emerging as the strongest force in the region among the Iranian proxies, which Tehran calls “the axis of resistance.”The United States fought the Houthis to a standstill for four months in 2025, and Mr. Trump has shown little appetite to resume. Still, the Houthis represent a strategic dilemma.

“沙特阿拉伯日益艰难的处境不容忽视,”以色列军事分析师丹尼·西特里诺维茨在社交媒体上写道。“利雅得是美国的重要盟友;如果胡塞武装获胜,或者沙特阿拉伯在军事压力下被迫接受某种政治解决方案(而这种解决方案主要符合胡塞武装的要求),那么对伊朗以及整个‘抵抗轴心’来说,都将是一次巨大的战略胜利。”尼尔·麦克法夸尔自1995年起一直担任《纽约时报》的记者,他的报道范围涵盖战争、政治、艺术等多个领域,既涉及国际事务,也涉及美国国内的情况。

“Saudi Arabia’s increasingly difficult position cannot simply be ignored,” Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli military analyst, wrote on social media. “Riyadh is a critical American partner, and a Houthi victory, or a political settlement imposed on Saudi Arabia under military pressure and largely on Houthi terms, would represent an enormous strategic achievement for Iran and the broader Axis of Resistance.”Neil MacFarquhar has been a Times reporter since 1995, writing about a range of topics from war to politics to the arts, both internationally and in the United States.