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伊朗战争扰乱航运,15年船龄油轮价格超过新船Prices of 15-year-old oil tankers top new builds as Iran war roils shipping

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今治造船的西条造船厂将在一只政府支持基金的协助下扩建其设施。(照片由《日经》获取)Imabari Shipbuilding's Saijo Shipyard will expand its facilities with assistance from a government-backed fund. (Photo obtained by Nikkei)

东京——由于船舶需求旺盛,二手油轮价格飙升,美国与伊朗之间的军事冲突迫使航运公司绕行霍尔木兹海峡。

TOKYO -- Prices for used oil tankers are soaring on high demand for vessels, as the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran forces shipping lines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

随着造船产能紧张、交付时间不断延长,15年船龄的船舶价格现在比新船高出约20%。

With shipbuilding capacity tight and delivery times growing longer, prices for 15-year-old vessels are now about 20% higher than those for new builds.

日本造船出口商协会周四发布的数据显示,4月至9月期间的海外订单同比增长3.6%。日本造船商的订单积压量已达到2991万总吨,相当于按2025财年产量计算的3.5年产量。

Overseas orders in the April-September period rose 3.6% on the year, according to data released Thursday by the Japan Ship Exporters' Association. Japanese shipbuilders' order backlogs have reached 29.91 million gross metric tons, equivalent to 3.5 years of output based on fiscal 2025 levels.

该协会表示,交付时间安排在2030年以后的船舶合同已经开始签订。

Contracts are already being signed for vessels scheduled for delivery beyond 2030, the association said.

供应紧张并非日本特有。占据全球市场一半以上份额的中国造船商,截至6月底的订单积压量相当于2025年产量的七年。随着新船交付时间延长,新旧船舶之间出现了不寻常的价格倒挂。

Tight supply is not limited to Japan. Chinese shipbuilders, which hold more than half the global market, had order backlogs equivalent to seven years of 2025 output as of the end of June. As delivery times for new vessels lengthen, an unusual price inversion between new and used ships has emerged.

据英国克拉克森研究公司(Clarksons Research)称,五年船龄的超大型原油运输船(VLCC)售价为2.15亿美元,10年船龄的售价1.9亿美元,15年船龄的售价1.6亿美元。

Five-year-old very large crude carriers (VLCCs) are priced at $215 million, while a 10-year-old vessel costs $190 million and a 15-year-old one $160 million, according to U.K.-based Clarksons Research.

这些船舶均比新船的1.31亿美元价格更贵,即使是15年船龄的船舶也溢价22%。

All are more expensive than the $131 million price of a new build, with even 15-year-old vessels commanding a 22% premium.

二手油轮价格自6月左右以来大幅上涨。与1月相比,五年船龄船舶价格上涨了约70%,10年船龄船舶价格上涨了80%,15年船龄船舶价格上涨了110%。

Prices of secondhand tankers have climbed sharply since around June. Compared with January, prices for five-year-old vessels have risen by about 70%, while those for 10-year-old ones jumped 80% and 15-year-old ships 110%.

由于霍尔木兹海峡仍然危险重重,严重依赖中东石油的国家正加紧努力确保替代原油供应。

With the Strait of Hormuz still treacherous to navigate, countries that depend heavily on oil from the Middle East are stepping up efforts to secure alternative crude supplies.

此前,原油可通过霍尔木兹海峡运往日本及东亚其他地区,耗时约20天。若改从美国墨西哥湾沿岸采购油品,超大型原油船(VLCC)需耗时50天以上,因为这类船只无法通过巴拿马运河,必须横渡大西洋,绕行非洲南端的好望角。航程延长大幅推高了油轮需求。

Previously, crude oil could be transported through the Strait of Hormuz to Japan and other parts of East Asia in around 20 days. Procuring oil instead from the U.S. Gulf Coast takes more than 50 days for VLCCs, which cannot pass through the Panama Canal and must cross the Atlantic Ocean and sail around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa. The longer journeys have sharply increased demand for tankers.

日本航运公司日本邮船(NYK Line,亦称Nippon Yusen)拥有一艘超大型原油船。(Nippon Yusen)油轮租船费率也在飙升。据克拉克森研究公司(Clarksons Research)称,三年期超大型原油船的日租金在10月约为10.9万美元,几乎是1月份的两倍。

A VLCC owned by Japanese shipping company Nippon Yusen, also known as NYK Line. (Nippon Yusen) Charter rates for tankers are also surging. The daily rate for a three-year VLCC charter stood at about $109,000 in October, nearly double that of January, according to Clarksons Research.

船东希望抓住当前的繁荣,但油轮供应不足。造船需要数年时间,因此船东转向二手船。

Shipowners want to capitalize on the current boom, but tankers are in short supply. Building vessels takes years, so owners have turned to used ships.

据英国船舶经纪公司Seasure Shipbroking称,一位希腊船东最近购买了两艘15年的超大型原油船。总部位于东京的航运信息公司MarineNet表示,“市场条件有利时,对可立即投入运营的二手船需求强劲。”日本长期以来约90%的原油依赖中东。为应对最新危机,日本政府正加紧寻找替代供应商,以降低这种依赖。其他国家也在采取类似举措。

A Greek shipowner recently bought two 15-year-old VLCCs, according to U.K.-based Seasure Shipbroking. MarineNet, a Tokyo-based shipping information company, said that "demand is strong for used vessels that can be put into operation immediately while market conditions are favorable." Japan has traditionally relied on the Middle East for about 90% of its crude oil. In response to the latest crisis, the government is rushing to secure alternative suppliers and reduce that dependence. Similar moves are happening in other countries.

预计,替换已超过约20年使用寿命的船舶的需求也将上升。克拉克森研究公司在一份报告中表示,替换老旧船舶和满足环保要求的需求将支撑造船需求。对于日本造船商而言,问题是他们能捕获多少这部分需求。

Demand to replace vessels that have exceeded their roughly 20-year service life is also expected to rise. Clarksons Research said in a report that demand to replace aging vessels and meet environmental requirements will underpin shipbuilding demand. For Japanese shipbuilders, the question is how much of that demand they can capture.

日本的目标是到2035年将其国内造船产量从2024年的水平提升至1800万吨(按总吨位计算)。为振兴该产业,日本政府设立了一项专项基金,并通过公共部门和私营部门的联合投资(总计约9000亿日元,约合56.9亿美元)来支持造船产能的提升。

Japan aims to double domestic shipbuilding output from 2024 levels to 18 million gross tons in 2035. A government-created fund to revitalize the industry is supporting capacity increases, with combined public- and private-sector investment of about 900 billion yen ($5.69 billion).

上世纪70年代,日本的造船业占据全球市场的半壁江山,但其市场份额现已下降至略超过10%。如今,中国已成为全球最大的造船国,并正在进一步扩大产能,以抢占不断增长的市场需求。

Japan's shipbuilding industry held about half the global market in the 1970s, but its share has fallen to just over 10%. China, now the world's top shipbuilder, is moving to expand output further as it also races to capture growing demand.