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运费飙升威胁亚洲对美国原油的需求Soaring freight rates threaten Asia's appetite for US crude

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新加坡10月9日电——多位追踪相关市场的交易员和船舶经纪人表示,油轮运费飙升至历史高位,使得亚洲炼油商难以负担美国原油,迫使他们转而从由于中东和拉丁美洲寻求替代供应。

SINGAPORE, Oct 9 - Tanker freight rates soaring to record highs are putting US crude oil out of reach for Asian refiners, pushing them to seek alternatives from the Middle East and Latin America, according to multiple traders and shipbrokers who track those markets.

根据伦敦证券交易所集团(LSEG)旗下船舶经纪公司Simpson, Spence & Young的数据,本周租用一艘超大型原油运输船(VLCC)将200万桶美国原油从墨西哥湾运往中国的费用已达到8000万美元。

The cost of chartering a very large crude carrier (VLCC) to carry 2 million barrels of US oil from the Gulf of Mexico to China in November hit $80 million this week, according to data from shipbrokers Simpson, Spence & Young on LSEG.

这些因未获授权向媒体发言而要求匿名的交易员和船舶经纪人本周表示,这意味着该航线的原油运输经济性已不再可行,导致所谓的贸易套利窗口关闭。

This means the economics of moving the oil on that route are no longer viable, closing the so-called arbitrage window for the trade, the traders and shipbrokers, who spoke on condition of anonymity as they are not authorised to speak to the media, said this week.

相反,亚洲炼油商正考虑转向阿联酋的穆尔班(Murban)原油,这导致该油种的溢价在周四反弹至每桶超过11美元,高于迪拜原油报价。

Instead, Asian refiners are considering switching to Murban crude from the United Arab Emirates, causing the grade's premium to rebound to over $11 a barrel to Dubai quotes on Thursday.

目前的运费为每桶40美元,而美以针对伊朗的战争于2月开始前仅为8.60美元。运费成本几乎相当于当前西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)期货合约价格的一半,这大幅推高了这一全球最大石油进口地区的炼油商成本,而船东则获得了丰厚利润。

At $40 a barrel, versus $8.60 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began in February, the shipping costs are equal to nearly half of the current price of a West Texas Intermediate crude future contract , sharply raising costs for refiners in the top oil importing region while shipowners reap bumper profits.

三位交易员和一位船舶经纪人表示,预计美国石油卖家将降低报价以参与全球竞争,同时一些贸易公司正转向使用较小型的油轮。

US oil sellers were expected to cut offers to compete globally while some trading firms were switching to smaller-sized tankers, according to three traders and a shipbroker.

Sparta Commodities高级分析师June Goh表示:“运费的惊人上涨意味着原油运抵亚洲炼油厂的成本更高。”她补充称,成品油裂解价差需要保持在高位,才能维持整体炼油利润率为正。

"This dizzying rise in freight rates translates to a higher delivery cost of crude into the Asian refineries," said June Goh, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities, adding that product cracks would need to remain elevated to keep the overall refining margin positive.

据两位交易员和两位航运消息人士透露,日本炼油商科斯莫石油公司(Cosmo Oil)已临时租用了一艘VLCC,计划于11月19日至21日装载美国原油,租金为8100万美元。

Japanese refiner Cosmo Oil has provisionally chartered a VLCC for $81 million to load US oil on November 19-21, according to two traders and two shipping sources.

但据其中一位消息人士——一名船舶经纪人称,韩国炼油商SK Energy和Trafigura试图以7600万至7700万美元预订VLCC油轮的计划并未成功。

But attempts by South Korean refiner SK Energy and Trafigura to book VLCCs for $76 million to $77 million were unsuccessful, according to one of those people, a shipbroker.

该船舶经纪人表示,Trafigura已以2400万美元租下可装载约60万桶原油的Aframax型油轮Torm Hilde,用于在11月1日为日本装载美国原油;而Vitol以2700万美元预订的Aframax型油轮Riverside,原定于11月初为韩国装载美国原油,但该交易最终未能达成。

Trafigura has chartered the Aframax tanker Torm Hilde — capable of carrying about 600,000 barrels — for $24 million to load US oil for Japan on November 1 while Vitol's fixture for Aframax tanker Riverside to load US oil for South Korea in early November for $27 million did not go through, the shipbroker said.

Trafigura拒绝置评,而其他公司也未立即回应置评请求。

Trafigura declined to comment while the other companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

另一位消息人士——一名航运分析师表示,该航线上稳定的油轮需求以及对美国战略石油储备进一步释放的预期,共同支撑了货运费率。

Steady demand for tankers on this route and expectations of the further release of US strategic petroleum reserves were supporting freight rates, said another of the sources, a shipping analyst.

Sparta公司的Goh表示,自8月中旬以来,从美国海湾地区至亚洲以及从富查伊拉至东亚的VLCC货运费率已飙升超过300%。

Sparta's Goh said VLCC freight rates on the US Gulf to Asia and on the Fujairah to East routes have spiked more than 300% since mid-August.

她指出:“VLCC货运费率如此大幅上涨的原因,在于为应对霍尔木兹海峡关闭而采取的、效率极低的船对船(STS)转运活动,以及大西洋盆地更多套利原油流入远东,导致可用运力减少。”

"The reasons for such exorbitant increases in VLCC freight rates are the hugely inefficient ship-to-ship (STS) activities as a workaround to the Strait of Hormuz closure and increased Atlantic Basin arbitrage crudes into the Far East, leading to lower open tonnage available," she said.

一家交易公司的石油分析师表示,在运抵亚洲的交付价格基础上,Murban原油比WTI原油每桶便宜约2美元。

An oil analyst with a trading firm said Murban was about $2 a barrel cheaper than WTI crude on a delivered basis to Asia.

因此,交易商称,亚洲炼油厂可能会购买更多Murban原油或来自阿根廷的Medanito等其他替代原油,尽管其中一些企业可能仍会为了供应安全而支付更高价格购买美国原油。

Hence, Asian refiners may buy more Murban or other alternatives such as Medanito from Argentina, the traders said, although some of them may still pay up for US oil for supply security.

Sparta公司的Goh表示:“只要霍尔木兹海峡的原油输送仍可能中断,原油供应多元化的策略就依然有效。这意味着,即使套利窗口看似关闭,大西洋原油流入亚洲的流量仍可能进一步增加。”

"The diversification angle for crude supplies remains in play while the flow from the Strait of Hormuz can still be disrupted, which means even if the arbitrage looks shut, there will likely be more Atlantic crude flows into Asia," Sparta's Goh said.