
许多共和党人在2026年中期选举中参选时显然更倾向于与特朗普总统保持距离。而特朗普不断强化了他们这样做的原因。
It’s clear that many Republicans running for office in the 2026 midterm elections would prefer to keep President Donald Trump at arm’s length. And Trump keeps reinforcing exactly why.
他不仅是一位在中期选举前夕历史上不受欢迎的总统,他和他的团队还在不断加倍坚持那些导致他们陷入困境的糟糕政治直觉。
Not only is he a historically unpopular president heading into the midterms, but he and his team keep doubling down on the terrible political instincts that landed them in this mess.
特朗普的奇怪政治举动本身并不新鲜。但他在2026年竞选后期保留了一些最不受欢迎的想法。
Trump making puzzling political moves isn’t exactly new. But he’s reserved some of his most overwhelmingly unpopular ideas for late in the 2026 campaign.
几乎就像他故意要做尽可能不受欢迎的事情。然后他在集会上反复提及这些想法,有时甚至长篇大论。
It’s almost as if he’s to do the most unpopular things possible. And then he keeps citing them at his rallies, sometimes at length.
其中两个最能说明问题的例子是政府现在看来已经放弃的一对策略:动用数百万美元纳税人资金投放宣传特朗普的广告,以及直播胡德堡枪手尼达尔·哈桑的处决。特朗普后来表示他将用竞选资金支付广告费用,并在周四称直播将不再进行。
Two of the most telling examples are a pair of gambits that the administration now appears to have backed off of: using millions of dollars in taxpayer funds to run ads promoting Trump and live streaming the execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan. Trump has since indicated that he would use campaign money to pay for the ads and said Thursday that the live stream will no longer happen.
后者的宣布恰好发生在周四《华盛顿邮报》-ABC新闻最新民调显示,选民以惊人的80%对19%的比例反对直播哈桑处决的几小时前。
The latter announcement came just hours after a new Washington Post-ABC News poll Thursday showeded voters opposed live streaming Hasan’s execution by a stunning margin, 80%-19%.
与此同时,路透社-益普索上周的民调显示,选民认为纳税人资助的政治广告不恰当的比例为89%对9%。
A Reuters-Ipsos poll last week, meanwhile, showed they said the taxpayer-funded political ads were inappropriate by an 89%-9% margin.
即便是在特朗普众多不受欢迎的政策中,也鲜有可比性的数字。最接近的类比或许是赦免暴力的1月6日被告,另一份《华盛顿邮报》民调显示选民以83%对16%的比例反对。
Even in the pantheon of Trump’s many unpopular policies, there are few comparisons to those numbers. About the best analog appears to be pardoning violent January 6 defendants, which another Washington Post poll showeded voters opposed, 83%-16%.
有人认为这些如今被放弃的计划是可行的想法——更不用说是在选举年的十月——这充分说明了共和党如今为何会走到这一步。不仅直播哈桑之死是一个令人毛骨悚然的想法,甚至许多共和党人都曾警告过这一点,而且这还将通过将哈桑塑造成一个非常公开的烈士,为伊斯兰极端分子赢得宣传胜利。
That anyone thought either of these now-abandoned plans were solid ideas — let alone in October of an election year — says a lot about how the GOP got to where it is right now. Not only is live-streaming Hasan’s death a gruesome idea that even many Republicans cautioned against, it would be a propaganda win for Islamic extremists by turning Hasan into a very public martyr.
但显然没有人愿意向特朗普或国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯表达怀疑 — — 或者这些怀疑被太轻易地驳回了。
But apparently nobody was willing to air doubts to Trump or Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth — or those doubts were too readily dismissed.
如果你认为这些是孤立的案例,那就看看特朗普在周三的集会上都在谈些什么吧。
Lest you think these are isolated instances, take a look at what Trump was talking about at his rallies on Wednesday.
在亚利桑那州,特朗普大肆宣传他最近发动的加拿大贸易战,以及他过去关于让加拿大或格陵兰成为美国第51个州的提议。
In Arizona, Trump played up his recently launched Canada trade war and his past proposals to make either Canada or Greenland the 51st US state.
“他们很残忍,我们再也不接受这种垃圾了,”特朗普谈到加拿大对美国的贸易政策时说。
“They are brutal, and we don’t take that crap anymore,” Trump said of Canadian trade policies towards the United States.
“他们最终会成为第51个州,因为只有这样才行得通,”特朗普说,随后补充道:“就像格陵兰一样。”然后他谈到格陵兰,声称他从未真的打算入侵该领土 — — 尽管他公开保留了这一选项。这就像一份三层巨无霸三明治,夹着极不受欢迎的政策。
“They’ll end up being the 51st state, because it’s the only way it works,” Trump said, later adding: “Just like Greenland.”Then he riffed on Greenland, asserting he never actually intended to invade the territory — despite publicly reserving that option. It was like a triple-decker sandwich of hugely unpopular initiatives.

特朗普对格陵兰的处理方式?二月份的一项民调显示,72%的人对此表示不赞成。
Trump’s handling of Greenland? 72% disapproved of that in a February poll.
让加拿大成为第51个州?去年根据不同的民调,要么75%,要么80%的人对此表示反对。
Making Canada the 51st state? Either 75% or 80% opposed that last year, depending on which poll you prefer.
特朗普最近对加拿大征收的关税?当他推出这些关税时,美国人以近3比1的比例(57%对20%)表示反对。
Trump’s recent tariffs on Canada? Americans opposed that by a nearly 3-to-1 margin, 57%-20%, when Trump launched them.
即便现在只是暗示关税,也是政治失误。福克斯新闻、美联社-NORC和CNN最近几周的民调显示,大约十分之七的美国人或选民对特朗普在这一问题上的表达不赞成。每项调查都显示了他在此议题上迄今为止的最差数据。
Even alluding to tariffs right now is political malpractice. Polling from Fox News, AP-NORC and CNN in recent weeks all show about 7 in 10 Americans ored voters disapproved of Trump on that issue. Each showed his worst numbers to date on the subject.
有人可能会认为,解释关税背后的逻辑更好,但这里与伊朗战争等话题存在关键区别:关税是一种完全自愿的主张,而在竞选还剩下不到三周的时候,去推动和宣传它。
One could argue it’s better to explain the logic of the tariffs, but there’s a critical difference here from topics like the Iran war: The tariffs are a completely elective idea to pursue and promote with less than three weeks left in the campaign.
在周三的亚利桑那州和蒙大拿州集会上,特朗普继续主张经济状况良好。他表示“关税不会导致通胀”,并声称美国之所以变得更富裕,正是因为既有关税也有高油价。
In both Arizona and Montana on Wednesday, Trump continued to argue that the economy is doing great. He said “tariffs don’t cause inflation” and claimed the US was getting richer because of both the tariffs and high oil prices.
“我们国家赚的钱比以往任何时候都多,这是因为油价如此之高,”特朗普在亚利桑那州的布尔黑德城说。他补充道:“我更关心小人物,而不是大人物”,但在那些产油州,“我们正在赚大钱。”
“Our country is making more money than it’s ever made because of the fact that oil is so high,” Trump said in Bullhead City, Arizona. He added, “I care more about the little person than I care about the big person” but that, in oil-producing states, “we’re making a fortune.”
特朗普已经这样喊了超过一年——基本上在告诉人们没有通胀,经济正处于“黄金时代”。尽管论点显然说服不了选民,他仍然坚持这么做。甚至可以说,这已经适得其反。
Trump has been barking up this tree for more than a year — basically telling people there is no inflation and that the economy is in a “golden age.”And he keeps doing so even though the argument clearly doesn’t convince voters. One could even argue that it’s backfired.
皮尤研究中心上个月的一项民调显示,42%的美国人认为经济“糟糕”,十分之八的人认为经济“一般”或“糟糕”。这两项数据都是特朗普第二任期的新高。
A Pew Research Center poll last month showed 42% of Americans rated the economy “poor,” and 8 in 10 rated it either “fair” or “poor.”Both are new highs for Trump’s second term.
如果说有什么不同的话,这种乐观论调似乎只让美国人认为特朗普与民众脱节,忽视了他们的负担能力担忧。毕竟,就在本周,他连续两天收到了糟糕的通胀指标,包括周四公布的数据显示,美国9月份的批发通胀升至四年多来的最高水平。
If anything, this happy talk appears to have only made Americans view Trump as out of touch and neglecting their affordability concerns. After all, just this week he’s gotten two straight days of bad inflation indicators, including data released Thursday that shows US wholesale inflation in September jumped to its highest level in more than four years.
这一切都相当令人震惊。评论员们常常在特朗普的行为中寻找秘密的政治算计。但随着他第二个任期的推进,似乎并没有真正的政治策略在指导他的行动。看起来这一切全是冲动和傲慢,基本上不受选举和政治考量的制约。
It’s all rather stunning. Pundits often look for the secret political calculation in the things Trump does. But increasingly in his second term, there doesn’t seem to be a real political strategy guiding his actions. It’s seemingly all impulse and hubris, largely unchecked by electoral and political concerns.
而他只有在民调结果出来、证实十分之八的人认为一个糟糕的想法事实上确实是糟糕的时候,才会改变方向。
And he only reverses course after polling comes out confirming that 8 in 10 people think a terrible idea is, in fact, a terrible idea.