
商船可能继续在霍尔木兹海峡航行,尽管对航运的袭击正在升级,因为中东能源的强劲需求和商业机会使一些运营商愿意冒险,海事专家表示。
Commercial vessels may continue navigating the perilous Strait of Hormuz despite escalating attacks on shipping, as strong demand for Middle Eastern energy and commercial opportunities keep some operators willing to brave the risks, maritime experts said.
对两艘新加坡籍集装箱船的最新袭击加剧了人们对通过世界上最重要的海上咽喉之一的商业航运安全的担忧。但分析人士表示,这些事件不太可能使通过霍尔木兹海峡的剩余航运活动完全停止,即使主要集装箱船公司大多已远离该地区。
The latest attacks on two Singapore-flagged container ships have heightened concerns over the safety of commercial shipping through one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints. But analysts say the incidents are unlikely to bring remaining shipping activity through the Strait to a halt, even as major container lines largely stay away.
新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究所高级研究员柯林·科表示,尽管安全威胁加剧,航运公司仍可能继续寻求通过该海峡的机会。
Collin Koh, a senior fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said shipping companies were likely to continue seeking opportunities to transit the strait despite heightened security threats.
“我短期内看不到新加坡籍船只或新加坡航运公司在有机会的情况下会必然避免通过该海峡,”科对CNBC表示。
"I don't see in the short term, that Singapore flagged ships or Singapore shipping companies would necessarily avoid taking the transit if there is an opportunity," Koh told CNBC.
他的言论是在本周两艘新加坡籍集装箱船GFS Pride和GFS Giselle遭到袭击之后作出的。GFS Pride在被炮弹击中并起火后沉没,而GFS Giselle受损。两艘船的船员据报道均已安全。
His comments follow attacks on two Singapore-ed container ships, GFS Pride and GFS Giselle, this week. GFS Pride sank after being struck by a projectile and catching fire, while GFS Giselle was damaged. Crew members from both vessels were reported safe.
根据海事分析公司Kpler的数据,截至10月14日一周的霍尔木兹海峡过境船只数量降至131艘,前一周为176艘,尽管这一下降不能完全归因于最新的袭击事件。
Crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 131 in the week ended Oct. 14, from 176 the previous week, according to maritime analytics firm Kpler, although the decline cannot be attributed solely to the latest incidents.
Kpler的海事风险与合规经理迪米特里斯·安帕齐迪斯表示,这些袭击凸显了伊朗继续威胁商船的能力,风险不仅限于石油和天然气运输。
Dimitris Ampatzidis, maritime risk and compliance manager at Kpler, said the attacks underscored Iran's continuing ability to threaten commercial vessels, with the risks extending beyond oil and gas transportation.
商业激励仍在持续。科表示,自冲突爆发以来,全球航运公司一直在寻找通过霍尔木兹海峡的机会,一些运营商愿意承担更高的风险和成本。
Commercial incentives persist Koh said shipping companies around the world have continued looking for opportunities to navigate the Strait since the conflict erupted, with some operators prepared to accept higher risks and costs.
石油需求强劲,尤其是来自亚洲的需求,继续为油轮运营商提供动力,使其在安全威胁使航行变得复杂的情况下,仍从波斯湾运输能源供应。
Strong demand for oil, particularly from Asia, continues to provide an incentive for tanker operators to transport energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, even as security threats complicate voyages.
科赫表示,一些运营商可能愿意冒险,即使这意味着需要支付溢价。
Some operators may be willing to take their chances even if doing so involves paying a premium, Koh said.
新加坡外长维维安·巴拉克里希南举例说明,尽管存在危险,但较高的油价可能使通过霍尔木兹海峡的航行在商业上变得值得。
Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan offered an example of how higher oil prices could make voyages through Hormuz commercially worthwhile despite the dangers.
他在上周的米尔肯研究所亚洲峰会上讲述了一段与一位未具名的海湾国家官员的对话,该官员表示,通过运营所谓的“霍尔木兹穿梭”——涉及约20艘超大型原油运输船——他的国家从石油出口中获得的收入如今甚至超过战前水平。
Speaking at the Milken Institute Asia Summit last week, Balakrishnan recounted a conversation with an unnamed Gulf counterpart who said his country was earning more from oil exports than before the war by operating a so-called "Hormuz shuttle" involving about 20 very large crude carriers.
根据该官员的说法,这些船舶实际上是自行投保以应对袭击,而较高的原油价格使得尽管存在风险,航行在财务上仍然具有价值。
The vessels were effectively self-insured against attacks, according to the official's account, with higher crude prices making the voyages financially worthwhile despite the risks.
巴拉克里希南引用该官员的话说:“有时会遭到袭击,但运行‘霍尔木兹穿梭’仍然是值得的。”
"Sometimes you get hits, but it is still worthwhile to run the 'Hormuz shuttle,'" Balakrishnan quoted the official as saying.
尽管存在风险,船舶仍继续通过该海峡,这反映了其商业重要性,尤其是对亚洲市场的能源运输,安帕齐迪斯表示。
Despite the risks, vessels continue to transit the Strait, reflecting its commercial importance, particularly for energy shipments to Asian markets, Ampatzidis said.
然而,他补充说,进一步的袭击可能会阻止更多运营商选择该航线,其影响可能因船舶类型和各公司对风险的评估而有所不同。
However, further attacks could deter more operators from making the passage, with the impact likely to differ depending on vessel type and individual companies' assessments of the risks, he added.
新加坡船东公会也淡化了商业航运从该地区大规模撤出的前景,认为运营商更可能适应不断变化的贸易条件。
The Singapore Shipping Association also played down the prospect of a broad withdrawal of commercial shipping from the region, suggesting operators would instead adapt to changing trade conditions.
协会主席张天赐表示:“这些发展更可能导致贸易模式的调整,因为市场会对商品和能源的供需变化作出反应,而不是表明将从该地区广泛撤出。”
"Rather than signalling a broad withdrawal from the region, these developments are more likely to result in adjustments to trading patterns as markets respond to shifts in the supply and demand of goods and energy," said association president TS Teo.
船东在作出运营决策时将继续权衡商业考量与安全形势以及船员安全,他补充道。
Shipowners would continue weighing commercial considerations against security developments and crew safety when making operational decisions, he added.
航运业面临更广泛的中断 虽然仍有部分运营商愿意穿越霍尔木兹海峡,但全球集装箱航运业的大部分已调整其网络以避开该海峡。
Wider shipping disruptions While some operators remain willing to transit Hormuz, much of the global container shipping industry has already adjusted its networks to avoid the strait.
德鲁里海事顾问公司(Drewry Maritime Advisors)董事Jayendu Krishna表示,自今年2月战争爆发后暂停运营以来,主要集装箱航运公司均未恢复通过霍尔木兹海峡的航线。只有少数区域运营商仍在进行零星航行,通常使用较小的支线船只。这意味着最新袭击对集装箱航运的直接影响可能有限,他说。
Jayendu Krishna, a director at Drewry Maritime Advisors, said none of the major container shipping lines had resumed services through Hormuz since suspending operations following the outbreak of the war in February. Only some regional operators have continued sporadic services, generally using smaller feeder vessels. That means the immediate impact of the latest attacks on container shipping could be limited, he said.
然而,若事态进一步升级至阿曼湾,可能对地区供应链构成更严重威胁,特别是如果它扰乱了阿拉伯联合酋长国的霍尔法坎和阿曼的索哈尔等替代港口——这些港口已成为货物进入海湾国家的关键门户。
However, a further escalation into the Gulf of Oman could pose a more serious threat to regional supply chains, particularly if it disrupts alternative ports like Khorfakkan in the United Arab Emirates and Oman's Sohar that have become critical gateways for cargo entering Gulf countries.
“如果阿曼湾成为动态行动区,那么供应给海湾国家的很大一部分物资将被切断,因为霍尔法坎和索哈尔一直是它们的生命线,”Krishna说。
"If the Gulf of Oman became a zone of kinetic activity, a significant part of supplies to the Gulf countries would be cut off, since Khorfakkan and Sohar have been a lifeline for them," Krishna said.