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在以色列,内塔尼亚胡最深刻的政治遗产是他所激起的反对力量In Israel, Netanyahu’s ultimate legacy is the opposition he has forged

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以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡8月抵达利库德集团党内初选投票现场时与支持者自拍(资料图/奥哈德·茨维根伯格/Pool/法新社)Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu takes a selfie with a supporter as he arrives to cast his vote in his Likud Party's primaries in August [File: Ohad Zwigenberg/Pool/AFP]

本雅明·内塔尼亚胡刚走到联合国演讲台前,大批代表便从座位上站起来,开始离场,以抗议这位以色列总理在9月下旬联合国大会上的演讲。

Benjamin Netanyahu had barely reached the United Nations podium when a sea of delegates jumped from their seats and began walking out in protest at the Israeli prime minister’s speech at the UN General Assembly in late September.

内塔尼亚胡面不改色、面带微笑地回击道:“如果还有其他没有离开大厅的道德懦夫,请现在就离开。”他本月晚些时候将竞选连任,同时因涉嫌在加沙犯下战争罪而遭到国际刑事法院通缉。

Undeterred, a grinning Netanyahu, who is seeking re-election later this month while being wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes in Gaza, shot back: “If there are any other moral cowards who haven’t left the hall, please do so now.”For his supporters watching in Israel, it was precisely what they wanted to hear“When they see Netanyahu at the United Nations,” his former aide, Mitchell Barak, told Al Jazeera, “that’s what they want – and it’s hard for them to imagine anyone else doing that.”

对于在以色列观看直播的支持者来说,这正是他们想听到的。“当他们在联合国看到内塔尼亚胡时,”他的前助手米切尔·巴拉克对半岛电视台说,“这正是他们想要的——他们很难想象其他人会这样做。”

He added: “For many in Israel, but not all, he’s the only man that can truly lead Israel. He makes them proud to be Jewish.”On October 27, Israel must choose between Netanyahu and an assorted number of rivals who are unified by little other than their absolute opposition to Israel’s longest-serving prime minister.

他补充说:“对以色列的许多人(但并非全部)来说,他是唯一能真正领导以色列的人。他让他们为自己是犹太人而感到自豪。”10月27日,以色列必须在内塔尼亚胡和众多竞争对手之间做出选择,这些对手除了绝对反对这位以色列任职时间最长的总理之外,几乎没有什么共同点。

In the eyes of both his supporters and his opponents, as well as much of the world, Netanyahu has become the face of modern Israel. Born in Tel Aviv in 1949 to Benzion Netanyahu and Tzila Segal, he spent his early years between Israel and the United States, the few constants in his life being the profoundly pessimistic views of his father – a right-wing historian who saw a world fundamentally opposed to the existence of Jews – and the military legacy of his brother, Yonatan, who was killed in 1976 while leading a raid to rescue hijacked Israeli hostages in Entebbe, Uganda.

在支持者、反对者以及世界大部分人眼中,内塔尼亚胡已经成为了现代以色列的面孔。

Since then, Netanyahu has gone through numerous iterations.

他1949年出生于特拉维夫,父亲为本齐翁·内塔尼亚胡,母亲为齐拉·塞加尔。他的早年生活辗转于以色列和美国之间,他生活中为数不多的几个恒定因素,是其父亲根深蒂固的悲观观点——其父是一位右翼历史学家,认为世界根本反对犹太人的生存——以及他哥哥约纳坦的军事遗产,约纳坦于1976年在乌干达恩德培领导解救被劫持以色列人质的突袭行动中丧生。此后,内塔尼亚胡经历过多次角色的转变。

In 1982, he was named deputy chief of mission at the Israeli embassy in Washington, DC. Two years later, he was appointed Israel’s ambassador to the UN, before returning to Israel to join the cabinet of then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir as deputy foreign minister in 1988. In 1996, Netanyahu became Israel’s youngest prime minister, leading the first in a series of coalitions that also saw him serving a record 12-year tenure from 2009 to 2021.

1982年,他被任命为以色列驻华盛顿特区大使馆副馆长。两年后,他被任命为以色列常驻联合国代表,随后于1988年返回以色列,加入时任总理伊扎克·沙米尔的内阁担任副外长。

He returned to power for a sixth term the next year, leading the most far-right government in Israel’s history. From the outset of his political career, he faced growing accusations of having deliberately engineered division to further his own political and personal ends.

1996年,内塔尼亚胡成为以色列最年轻的总理,领导了一系列执政联盟中的首个联盟,并在2009年至2021年期间创下了连续担任12年总理的纪录。次年,他第六次重返权力巅峰,领导了以色列历史上最右翼的政府。

“Netanyahu is the perfect encapsulation of Israel’s political polarisation,” said political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg. Describing Netanyahu as “always” being “in campaigning mode”, he said the Israeli leader “is very good at building coalitions that reflect public opinion, as well as steering that opinion in his own direction”.

从其政治生涯之初开始,他就面临着越来越多的指责,被指控蓄意制造分裂以推进其个人和政治目的。

Hardwired division Under Netanyahu’s leadership, Israel has continued to lurch to the right, rejecting the path towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict set in motion by his predecessor, the assassinated Yitzhak Rabin.

政治分析人士尼姆罗德·弗拉申伯格表示:“内塔尼亚胡是以色列政治极化的完美缩影。”他形容内塔尼亚胡“总是”处于“竞选模式”,并表示这位以色列领导人“非常擅长建立反映公众舆论的联盟,同时也擅长将这种舆论引导至他自己的方向”。

At the same time, vast swaths of the Israeli electorate have also grown accustomed to the violent expansion of illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank and reconciled themselves to the genocide in Gaza following the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023 – for which many still blame Netanyahu for alleged security failures– as well as the multiple wars waged at his direction since. In July 2018, Netanyahu’s coalition passed the Nation-State Law, declaring the right to national self-determination “unique to the Jewish people”, stripping Arabic of its status as an official language and making the development of Jewish settlements a national value.

根深蒂固的分裂 在内塔尼亚胡的领导下,以色列继续向右倾斜,拒绝了由其前任、遇刺身亡的伊扎克·拉宾所开启的通往巴以冲突“两国方案”的道路。与此同时,广大以色列选民也逐渐习惯了被占领的约旦河西岸非法定居点的暴力扩张,并在2023年10月7日哈马斯主导的袭击(许多人至今仍将此次袭击归咎于内塔尼亚胡涉嫌安全失职)以及此后在其指挥下进行的多次战争之后,接受了加沙的种族灭绝。

In the law’s wake, settler violence in the occupied West Bank has surged, with the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) recording 1,291 attacks in 2023 and 1,835 in 2025. At least 1,071 Palestinians, including 233 children, have been killed in the West Bank by Israeli forces or settlers since October 7, 2023, according to OCHA, amid what a senior UN official called “virtually no accountability”.

2018年7月,内塔尼亚胡的执政联盟通过了《民族国家法》,宣布民族自决权“专属于犹太人民”,剥夺了阿拉伯语的官方语言地位,并将犹太人定居点的发展定为国家价值观。在该法出台后,被占领的约旦河西岸的定居者暴力事件激增,联合国人道主义事务协调厅(OCHA)记录到2023年发生了1291起袭击事件,2025年发生了1835起。

More immediately, Netanyahu’s current coalition has seen some of Israel’s most controversial figures – such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir convicted of incitement to racism and support for a “terrorist” group, and the explicitly pro-settlement Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich– placed at the heart of power. Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir celebrates after Israel’s parliament passed a law making the death penalty a default sentence for Palestinians convicted in military courts of deadly attacks [File: Oren Ben Hakoon/Reuters]“Netanyahu didn’t create the racism and fascism in Israel, but he’s helped it,” said outgoing parliamentarian Aida Touma-Sliman, of the left-wing Hadash party.

以色列极右翼国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔在以色列议会通过一项法律后进行庆祝,该法律规定,被军事法院定罪且犯下致命袭击罪的巴勒斯坦人将被判处死刑作为法定刑罚(资料图/奥伦·本·哈孔/路透社)Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir celebrates after Israel’s parliament passed a law making the death penalty a default sentence for Palestinians convicted in military courts of deadly attacks [File: Oren Ben Hakoon/Reuters]

据联合国人道主义事务协调厅称,自2023年10月7日以来,以色列军队或定居者在约旦河西岸打死了至少1071名巴勒斯坦人,其中包括233名儿童,正是在一位联合国高级官员所称的“几乎完全没有问责”的背景下发生的。

“He’s smart. He knows exactly what he’s doing when he includes people like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir in his government, and he knows the outcome of those appointments.”

更直接的是,内塔尼亚胡目前的执政联盟让以色列一些最具争议的人物——例如因煽动种族主义和支持“恐怖”组织而被定罪的国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔,以及公开亲定居点的财政部长贝扎雷尔·斯莫特里赫——进入了权力核心。

“He thrives in chaos,” said Barak, Netanyahu’s former aide from the 1990s.

以色列极右翼国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔在以色列议会通过一项法律后庆祝,该法规定在军事法庭被判犯有致命袭击罪的巴勒斯坦人将被判处死刑(资料图:Oren Ben Hakoon/Reuters)“内塔尼亚胡没有在以色列制造种族主义和法西斯主义,但他推波助澜了,”左翼政党“和平与平等民主阵线”(Hadash)即将卸任的议员艾达·图马-斯利曼(Aida Touma-Sliman)说。“他很聪明。当他在政府中纳入像斯莫特里奇和本-格维尔这样的人时,他非常清楚自己在做什么,他也知道这些任命的结果。”

“He’s all about the big picture, of ends justifying means.”Running through the prime minister’s recent military campaigns have been his long-standing battles against any kind of domestic judicial restraint.

“他在混乱中如鱼得水,”曾在20世纪90年代担任内塔尼亚胡助手的巴拉克(Barak)说。“他只关心大局,为达目的不择手段。”这位总理近期的军事行动中,贯穿着他长期以来对任何形式的国内司法制约的抗争。由于面临可追溯到2019年的腐败案件缠身(若被定罪,他可能面临牢狱之灾),他一直与试图追究其责任的同一法律体制陷入对抗。

Dogged by corruption cases dating back to 2019, which could see him serve time in prison if convicted, he has been locked in a confrontation with the same legal establishment attempting to hold him to account. In January 2023, he and his right-wing allies sought to overhaul the judiciary shaking off much of the oversight of the courts over government action. The proposals led to demonstrations on an unprecedented scale, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets to protest against the contentious move. In June 2024, Netanyahu went so far as to appear to suggest that the division created by his reforms was somehow responsible for his own heavily criticised response to the October 7 attack.

2023年1月,他和他的右翼盟友试图彻底改革司法体系,摆脱法院对政府行为的大部分监督。这些提议引发了空前规模的示威活动,数十万人走上街头抗议这一极具争议的举动。2024年6月,内塔尼亚胡甚至暗示,他的改革所造成的裂痕在某种程度上应对他本人对10月7日袭击备受批评的反应负责。

The ‘devil’ you know Still, while opinion polls show Netanyahu’s Likud party and its allies tied with the broad anti-Netanyahu bloc of similarly right-wing and militaristic parties, the prime minister’s support has weakened. Likud won 32 seats in the 2022 election, but most recent polls project a gain of about 20 to 22, with former supporters appearing to shift either to the opposition or to harder-line right-wing parties. The alliance opposing Netanyahu has yet to nominate an official leader, but former army chief Gadi Eisenkot is widely seen as its most likely candidate for prime minister.

你所熟知的“恶魔” 尽管如此,民意调查显示内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团及其盟友与同样属于右翼和军国主义政党的光谱广泛的反内塔尼亚胡阵营势均力敌,但这位总理的支持率已经下降。利库德集团在2022年的选举中赢得了32个席位,但最近的大多数民调预计其将获得约20至22个席位,前支持者似乎转向了反对派或更强硬的右翼政党。

“We need to be clear about this,” said Barak. “He’s essentially running unopposed. It’s Netanyahu versus a coalition of opponents.”

反对内塔尼亚图的联盟尚未正式提名领袖,但前军队参谋长加迪·埃森科特被普遍视为其最可能的总理候选人。

“Think about it,” said Touma-Sliman, pointing out the double standards after the prominent leader of a party representing Palestinian citizens of Israel was forced to withdraw from the election over his remarks about the Gaza war.

巴拉克说:“我们需要对此有清醒的认识。他基本上是在无竞争对手的情况下参选。这是一场内塔尼亚图对阵反对派联盟的较量。”托马-斯利曼指出,在一名代表以色列巴勒斯坦公民的政党杰出领袖因就加沙战争发表言论被迫退出选举后,存在着双重标准,她说道:“想想看,他协助建立了一个体制,导致阿拉伯裔议员萨米·阿布·谢哈德被禁止参选,而他这样一个带领国家经历了一场种族灭绝的战犯却却没有被禁。”

“He’s helped create a system where Arab MK Sami Abu Shehadeh is barred from running, and he, a war criminal who has led his country through a genocide, is not”. For his supporters, noted Flaschenberg, Netanyahu “remains Israel’s only possible leader”.

弗拉申贝格指出,对他的支持者而言,内塔尼亚图“依然得以是以色列唯一可能胜任的领袖”。但对他的反对者来说,“他是恶魔。他是腐败的化身,对10月7日之前发生的一切以及之后的一切负有责任”。然而,这位分析人士暗示,他最终的历史遗产可能还在后头,他回溯了前英国首相玛格丽特·撒切尔的话,她曾将反对派的右倾化视为自己最大的政治遗产。

But for his opponents, “He’s the devil. He’s corruption personified, responsible for everything leading up to October 7 and everything afterwards.”However, his ultimate legacy may still lie ahead, the analyst suggested, recalling the words of former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who once cited the rightward tilt of the opposition as her greatest legacy. “Netanyahu’s legacy lies with the opposition. All of the main contenders are right-wing, militaristic and ultimately racist,” said Flaschenberg.

弗拉申贝格说:“内塔尼亚图的遗产在于反对派。所有主要的竞争者都是右翼、军国主义的,归根结底是种族主义的。这就是内塔尼亚图的遗产。”

“That’s Netanyahu’s legacy.”