
沙特阿拉伯与胡塞武装的战争,以及美国与伊朗持续的冲突,已经与非洲之角日益紧张的竞争和公开冲突重叠,并吸引了越来越多的关注。
Saudi Arabia’s war with the Houthis, as well as America’s ongoing conflict with Iran, have overlapped with, and drawn increasing attention to, simmering rivalries and outright conflicts on the Horn of Africa.
历史学家西蒙·塞巴格-蒙特菲奥里正确地断言:“在这场争夺非洲的竞赛中,帝国不再是欧洲的,而是中东和非洲的。”的确,非洲之角这个熔炉中没有缺少参与者。他们包括索马里和索马里兰、埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚、以色列和土耳其,以及沙特阿拉伯。
The historian Simon Sebag-Montefiore rightly has asserted that “In this scramble for Africa, the empires are no longer European but Middle Eastern and African.”Indeed, there is no shortage of players in the cauldron that is the Horn. They include Somalia and Somaliland, Ethiopia and Eritrea, Israel and Turkey, as well as Saudi Arabia.
但非洲之角也容纳域外行为者。吉布提毗邻埃塞俄比亚、厄立特里亚和索马里,其海岸线沿红海和亚丁湾延伸,境内充斥着外国设施。它是五个域外国家的东道主 — — 美国、中国、法国、日本和意大利 — — 他们都为在那里驻军支付高额费用。莱蒙尼耶营地是美国在非洲的主要军事基地,也是联合特遣部队-非洲之角司令部的所在地,以及欧洲、非洲、中东海军基础设施枢纽。
But the Horn hosts extra-regional actors as well. Djibouti, which borders Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia and has coastlines along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, is brimming with foreign facilities. It is host to five extra-regional states — the U.S., China, France, Japan and Italy — all of whom pay hefty fees to station forces there. Camp Lemonnier, the primary U.S. military base in Africa, is home of the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa headquarters, as well as the Navy Region Europe, Africa, Central infrastructure hub.
中国正在升级其所谓的人民解放军支援基地。法国自1971年赋予吉布提独立以来,一直在该国维持约1500人的军事存在;这是法国在非洲最大的基地。日本的基地是其在日本本土以外的唯一此类设施。意大利则在该国运营一个军事支援基地。
China is upgrading what it calls the People’s Liberation Army Support Base. France has maintained a military presence of about 1,500 troops in Djibouti since it granted the country independence in 1971; it is the largest French base in Africa. Japan’s base is its only such facility outside the Japanese mainland. And Italy operates a military support base in the country.
此外,土耳其在索马里维持其最大的海外基地,自2011年以来一直向该国提供军事和经济支持。以色列是唯一承认索马里兰的国家,索马里兰于1991年从索马里分离出来;以色列在那里 oficialmente 没有基地,但据报道,它曾从其领土上对也门的胡塞武装进行行动。就索马里兰政府而言,其正寻求以色列的防空系统,以应对其声称的土耳其在索马里的无人机和飞机部署增加。
In addition, Turkey maintains its largest overseas base in Somalia, which it has provided with military and economic support since 2011. Israel, the only state to recognize Somaliland, which broke away from Somalia in 1991, officially has no base there, but it has reportedly operated from its territory against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. For its part, the government of Somaliland is seeking Israeli air defense systems to counter what it claims is a buildup of Turkish drones and aircraft in Somalia.
阿拉伯联合酋长国尚未正式承认索马里兰。但与其关系密切的以色列一样,它为索马里兰提供军事和经济支持,并且自20世纪90年代初以来一直如此。最重要的是,迪拜政府拥有的迪拜港口世界公司经营着伯贝拉港,该港曾是苏联在1977年之前的主要海军基地,直至索马里驱逐苏联;随后,该港在1980年至1990年间成为美国海军基地。目前,阿联酋正在扩大其在伯贝拉的空军和海军存在。
The United Arab Emirates has not formally recognized Somaliland. But like Israel, to which it has close ties, it provides it with military and economic support and has done so since the early 1990s. Most importantly, the Dubai government-owned Dubai Ports World operates the port at Berbera, once a major Soviet naval base until 1977 when Somalia expelled the USSR, and then an American naval base from 1980 to 1990. The Emiratis are currently expanding their air and naval presence at Berbera.
虽然吉布蒂可能在其相对较小的领土内拥有最多的外国设施,但索马里兰才是非洲之角一场主要竞争的中心。上个月,其总统指责土耳其游说各国不承认其独立。土耳其长期支持索马里;摩加迪沙指责以色列,以及在较小程度上指责阿拉伯联合酋长国,正在推动索马里兰的独立。
While Djibouti may host the most foreign foreign facilities within its relatively small territory, it is Somaliland that is at the center of one of the Horn’s major rivalries. Last month its president accused Turkey of lobbying states not to recognize its independence. Turkey is a longtime supporter of Somalia; Mogadishu accuses Israel, and to a lesser extent the United Arab Emirates, of promoting Somaliland’s independence.
随着以色列和土耳其关系紧张,尤其是在叙利亚 — — 两国在那里都有军事存在,而以色列曾袭击叙利亚空军基地并引发土耳其谴责 — — 两个地区大国之间发生冲突的前景非常真实。
With Israel and Turkey at loggerheads, especially in Syria — where both countries have a military presence and where Israel has struck a Syrian airbase and drawn Turkish condemnation — the prospects of a clash between the two regional superpowers is very real.
此外,阿拉伯联合酋长国公开支持埃塞俄比亚对抗提格雷人民解放阵线叛军。与此同时,亚的斯亚贝巴指责邻国厄立特里亚支持叛军。厄立特里亚于1993年从埃塞俄比亚独立,两年后便与埃塞俄比亚爆发战争。
Additionally, the United Arab Emirates openly supports Ethiopia against the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front. At the same time, Addis Ababa accuses neighboring Eritrea of supporting the rebels. Eritrea broke away from Ethiopia in 1993 and went to war with it two years later.
也许并非巧合,鉴于阿联酋与索马里兰的长期关系,以及埃塞俄比亚和索马里兰与耶路撒冷的密切联系,内陆国家埃塞俄比亚几乎就通过索马里兰获得红海通道达成协议。土耳其阻止了该协议。土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安公开反对以色列对索马里兰的承认。厄立特里亚现在担心,鉴于埃塞俄比亚与以色列的贸易和军事关系,以及其通过索马里兰通往大海的尝试受挫,埃塞俄比亚可能会试图通过自己的领土实现这一目标。
Perhaps not coincidentally, given the Emiratis’ longstanding relationship with Somaliland, and the close ties to Jerusalem of both Ethiopia and Somaliland, landlocked Ethiopia almost reached an agreement with Somaliland for access to the Red Sea. Turkey blocked that agreement. Turkish president Recep Tayyib Erdogan has openly opposed Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. Eritrea now fears that Ethiopia, given its trade and military ties to Israel, and having been foiled in its attempt to access the sea through Somaliland, might attempt to do so through its own territory.
在其众多调解努力中,特朗普政府一直在尝试,但迄今为止未果,以在以色列、土耳其和叙利亚之间建立一个去冲突机制。然而,华盛顿可能会考虑将其努力扩展到减少以色列-土耳其在非洲之角的长期紧张关系,而这种紧张关系随时可能爆发为该地区任意两国之间的新战争,进而可能卷入这两个强国。
Among its many mediation efforts, the Trump administration has been trying, thus far without success, to create a deconfliction mechanism among Israel, Turkey and Syria. Yet Washington might consider extending its efforts to reduce long-standing Israeli-Turkish tensions on the Horn of Africa, which at any moment could explode into a new war between any two of the countries that are at loggerheads there and that could then draw in both of those powerful states.
如果以色列和土耳其在非洲之角发生冲突,其冲突可能蔓延至叙利亚,导致该国不稳定,并为俄罗斯进一步干预或伊朗代理人的回归创造新机遇。这显然不符合美国的利益。
Should Israel and Turkey clash in the Horn, their conflict could extend to Syria, destabilize that country and create new opportunities for further Russian intervention or a return of Iranian proxies. That would certainly not be in America’s interest.
以色列和土耳其都是美国的亲密盟友。以色列正式是北约以外的盟友,而土耳其是北约成员国。华盛顿应尽一切努力缓和,如果不能和解的话,这两个在非洲之角的对手,就像在叙利亚那样,以免他们之间目前的言语战争在任何一个地区或两个地区爆发为真正的敌对行动。
Both Israel and Turkey are close American allies. Israel is formally a non-NATO ally, and Turkey is a member of NATO. Washington should make every effort to mitigate, if not reconcile, the two rivals on the Horn of Africa as in Syria, before the current war of words between them explodes into real hostilities in either or both regions.
多夫·S·扎克海姆是战略与国际问题研究中心的高级顾问,以及对外政策研究所董事会副主席。他曾在2001年至2004年期间担任国防部副部长(财务长)和国防部首席财务官,并在1985年至1987年期间担任国防部副副部长。
Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.