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IMF预计2026年欧洲央行至少再加息25个基点IMF expects at least one more 25 bps ECB rate hike in 2026

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2024年11月24日,美国华盛顿特区,国际货币基金组织(IMF)总部内景,可见其标志。路透社/伯努瓦·泰西耶/资料照片A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo

国际货币基金组织周五在其针对欧洲的常规预测报告中表示,欧洲央行很可能今年至少再加息25个基点,以对抗高通胀。

The European Central Bank is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at least one more time this year to fight high inflation, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday in its regular forecast report for Europe.

欧洲央行已在6月和9月各加息25个基点,以应对因美国-以色列对伊朗战争导致能源价格飙升而引发的通胀上升。

The ECB has already raised rates by 25 bps in both June and in September to counter rising inflation caused by the surge in energy prices as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

“国际货币基金组织分析显示,2026年政策利率至少再上调25个基点,才能确保核心通胀保持在受控水平,”国际货币基金组织表示。

"IMF analysis shows that at least one further 25 bps increase in policy rates in 2026 will be required to ensure that core inflation remains well contained," the IMF said.

“2026年之后的政策应根据新数据调整,但可能还需要进一步紧缩,以确保通胀在2028年回到目标水平,”它表示。

"While policy beyond 2026 should evolve based on incoming data, further tightening is likely to be warranted to ensure that inflation returns to target in 2028," it said.

“如果财政支持措施未能精准设计以减轻高能源价格的影响,可能会削弱降通胀努力,”报告表示。

"Fiscal support to mitigate the effects of higher energy prices, if not carefully calibrated, could undermine disinflation efforts," the report said.