随着全球持续经历油价上涨，加拿大原油生产商未能为其桶装原油获得最高价。
While the world continues to experience an oil-price surge, Canadian crude producers are failing to get top dollar for their barrels.
加拿大重质原油与美国供应之间的折价 — — 这一指标受到石油市场的广泛关注 — — 在过去几周内剧烈扩大。阿尔伯塔省油砂的生产商目前每桶原油的收入比美国竞争对手少约26美元。
The discount for Canadian heavy oil versus US supplies — a measure that’s widely scrutinized by the oil market — has flared out dramatically in the past few weeks. Producers in Alberta’s oil sands are now receiving about $26 a barrel less that what their rivals in the US are getting.
这一差距的扩大源于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普外交政策决策的综合影响。首先，在1月份尼古拉斯·马杜罗总统被罢免后，加拿大生产商面临来自委内瑞拉原油的加剧竞争，委内瑞拉原油是一种类似的重质原油，一些炼油厂对此进行了优化使用。
The gap has widened thanks to the combined effects of US President Donald Trump’s foreign policy decisions. First, after the removal of President Nicolás Maduro in January, Canadian producers faced increased competition from Venezuelan oil, a similar type of heavy crude that some refineries are optimized to use.
随后几个月，伊朗战争导致油轮运输费用飙升，进而导致美国出现重质原油供过于求，从而降低了对加拿大原油的需求。
In subsequent months, the Iran war sent tanker shipping rates skyrocketing, leading to a glut of heavy oil in the US and lowering demand for Canadian supplies.
加拿大原油长期以低于美国价格的某种水平进行交易，这种折价长期以来一直是国内的不满来源，同时也伴随着该国对向美国炼油厂输送石油的依赖。加拿大西部省份阿尔伯塔省生产了该国绝大多数的原油桶，约90%的原油出口至美国。这种依赖正促使总理马克·卡尼领导的政府在加剧的贸易战中优先考虑将贸易多元化，以摆脱对美国的依赖。
Canadian crude consistently trades at some level below US prices, and that discount has long been a source of frustration domestically, along with the country’s reliance on sending oil to US refiners. The western province of Alberta produces the vast majority of the country’s barrels, exporting about 90% of it to the US. That dependence is now driving Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government to prioritize diversifying trade away from the US amid an intensifying trade war.
通往加拿大西海岸的唯一输油管道目前已满负荷运行，这阻碍了生产商为其桶装原油获得更好价格的能力。卡尼正支持建设一条日输送一百万桶原油至不列颠哥伦比亚省海岸的新管道，以缓解出口瓶颈。如此一来，阿尔伯塔省的原油也能够在全球市场上与更高的布伦特油基准进行更有竞争力的角逐。
The only export pipeline to Canada’s west coast is already at full capacity, hampering producers’ ability to get a better price for their barrels. Carney is backing the construction of a new million-barrel-a-day pipeline to the BC coast to address the export crunch. Alberta’s oil could then also compete more with the higher Brent oil benchmark on global markets.
商品情境公司（Commodity Context Corp.）创始人罗里·约翰斯顿（Rory Johnston）表示，导致近几周价差快速扩大的主要因素“与伊朗战争有关，具体来说就是目前航运市场正在发生的事情”。“总体而言，这对加拿大石油来说全是坏消息。”根据通用指数（General Index）和现代商品价格（Modern Commodities prices），阿尔伯塔省哈迪斯蒂（Hardisty）的西部加拿大精选（Western Canadian Select）每桶价格比西得克萨斯中质原油（WTI）月均价低超过26美元。这相当于一个多月内相对价格下跌了约50%。7月份时，这一价差还不到14美元。
The main factors causing the rapid widening of the price gap in recent weeks are “related to the Iran War and specifically what’s happening in shipping markets right now,” said Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context Corp. “Generally, it’s all bad news for Canadian oil.”Western Canadian Select at Hardisty, Alberta, is trading at a greater than $26 a barrel discount to a monthly average of West Texas Intermediate, according to General Index and Modern Commodities prices. That’s about a 50% drop in relative price in just over a month. The discount was less than $14 in July.
在美国墨西哥湾沿岸，加拿大科尔德莱克（Cold Lake）原油相对于WTI的价差每桶超过17美元，也是三年来最大的价差，这一数据来自链路数据服务（Link Data Services）。由于加拿大原油本身品质较低以及输送至美国中西部和墨西哥湾沿岸炼油厂的管道运输成本，其价格通常较低。
On the US Gulf Coast, Canadian Cold Lake crude’s discount to WTI is greater than $17 a barrel, also the largest in three years, according to Link Data Services. Canada’s oil is typically priced lower due to both its quality and pipeline shipping costs to get to refiners in the US Midwest and Gulf Coast.
与此同时，柴油等燃料价格高企以及复杂炼油能力不足，正促使正在运作的炼油厂最大化产出，这导致高硫燃料油产量增加，进一步压低了墨西哥湾地区的重质原油价格，约翰斯顿在接受采访时表示。
Meanwhile, high prices for fuels such as diesel and a lack of complex refining capacity are prompting the refiners that are operating to maximize output, which yields more high-sulfur fuel oil, further weighing on heavy crude oil prices in the Gulf, Johnston said in an interview.
虽然许多加拿大石油公司相对于美国基准价获得的收入减少，但伊朗战争引发的价格上涨对该行业来说是一笔意外之财。他们在过去十年里通过提高运营效率，降低了每桶原油的生产成本，如今正从这些努力以及整体油价上涨中获益。
While many Canadian oil companies are receiving less relative to US benchmarks, the run-up in prices caused by the Iran war has been a windfall for the industry. They have made their operations more efficient in the last decade, lowering the cost to produce a barrel and are now reaping rewards from that effort and overall increased oil prices.
约翰斯顿表示，目前导致价差扩大的主要驱动力是波斯湾地区袭击威胁导致油轮运费本月升至历史高点，这使得本来可以运往海外的重质原油被困在美国墨西哥湾沿岸。袭击导致部分运力中断，并增加了对超大型原油运输船的需求。
The primary driver of the discount now stems from the threat of attacks in the Persian Gulf has caused tanker rates to rise to record highs this month, trapping heavy crude in the US Gulf Coast that could normally be shipped overseas. The attacks have taken some capacity offline and raised demand for the very large crude carriers, Johnston said.
加拿大航运公司已转向通往该国西海岸的唯一输油管道。本月，输送阿尔伯塔省石油至温哥华地区的跨山输油管道不得不实施自2024年系统扩建以来最高级别的空间配给。根据Vortexa的数据，10月前两周从温哥华出发的石油量是自5月以来同期最高的。
Canadian shippers have turned to the sole pipeline to the country’s west coast. Trans Mountain’s conduit carrying oil from Alberta to the Vancouver area this month had to impose its highest level of space rationing since the system was expanded in 2024. The volume of oil to depart Vancouver in the first two weeks of October was the highest for a similar period of time since May, according to Vortexa data.
约翰斯顿表示，过去，从墨西哥湾沿岸向亚洲运输石油所需的额外时间与从温哥华港口出运相比，对成本影响甚微。但如今油轮运费大幅上涨，这导致额外成本超过1500万美元——“因此时间和距离现在产生了巨大差异。”约翰斯顿称，加拿大石油生产商的低油价可能会持续。他表示，2022年和2023年初曾出现类似情况。
In the past, the extra time required to ship oil from the Gulf Coast to Asia versus out of the Vancouver port made little difference to the cost, Johnston said. But with tanker shipping rates rising so much, that is costing north of $15 million “so that time and that distance makes a huge difference now.”Low oil prices for Canadian producers could persist, according to Johnston. A similar situation existed in 2022 and early 2023, he said.
“我不是说情况会完全一样，但这是我们目前最好的类比，”他说。“如果到年底我们能让哈迪斯蒂的价格重新跌回20美元以下，我会感到非常惊喜。”
“I’m not saying that’s going to be the exact same, but that’s the best parallel we have,” he said. “I would be happily surprised if we could get Hardisty back under $20 by the end of the year.”