Memphis covers a variety of areas, from US relations to the Russia-Ukraine war, and was formerly The Telegraph's Foreign Editor 4:31pm BST Mark Carney gave a final warning before Canada’s independence referendum on Monday: look at what happened to Britain after it left the EU.

The Canadian prime minister, who campaigned against Brexit as governor of the Bank of England, argued that the results of the 2016 vote should serve as a lesson to Albertans in favour of secession.

“It wasn’t clear what Brexit meant at the time people made that vote,” he said. “Now the economy is at least 10 per cent lower than it would otherwise be. We’re talking thousands and thousands of dollars of earnings that people are giving up.”In Britain, Mr Carney’s warnings of economic disaster were dismissed as part of “Project Fear”, and voters ultimately chose to gamble on freedom.

Polls suggest a repeat of that scenario is unlikely in Alberta, the southern province set to hold a 10-question referendum on Monday with an option to vote for a second, binding poll on independence. Around 70 per cent of the population in the oil-rich territory oppose leaving the Federation, according to multiple surveys.

Mr Carney has stepped in to lend the force of his sky-high approval ratings to the Remain campaign, even using the slogan of the British effort – “We’re stronger together” – in a video message posted on Monday.

Republican operatives have supported the separatist campaign, which is led by the Alberta Prosperity Project on the ground.

Members of that group also met US state department officials this year and offered deals in natural resources in exchange for help in the transition to independence, according to the Globe and Mail newspaper.

In one of his final rallies on Thursday, Mr Carney took a veiled swipe at the White House and its efforts to break and thereby “own” Canada.

Mr Trump’s broadsides have prompted a surge in Canadian patriotism: “Elbows up”, as locals say, in reference to Gordie Howe, a spiky ice-hockey star.

But separatist sentiment remains a powerful force in Alberta, where residents complain that the province’s vast oil wealth is unfairly redistributed by the federal government – which also curbed exploitation under the net-zero policies of Justin Trudeau, the former Liberal prime minister.

Polls show the majority of Albertans would vote to remain in Canada The referendum was originally called by Danielle Smith, the conservative premier of Alberta, over her proposals to restrict short-term immigrants from accessing free public services.

Roughly 400,000 international migrants have moved to the province in the last four years, straining the provision of healthcare and housing.

The question on independence was only added to the ballot after an APP campaign secured more than 300,000 signatures.

Political leaders such as Mr Carney invoke Mr Trump as a “bogeyman” because they have “no political case for why Alberta should stay in Canada,” claimed Mitch Sylvestre, the leader of the APP.

“They have no other case but ‘elbows up’ – we’ve always been Canadian, so we should stay Canadian,” he said. Critics of the separatists’ issue argue it is they who lack clear plans.

Mark Carney, a critic of Brexit, has urged those living in Alberta to consider the risks of a vote for independence Under Mr Carney, Ottawa has taken care to respond to Albertan unhappiness.

In November, the prime minister signed a memorandum of understanding with Ms Smith that pledged to fast-track a new oil pipeline to the Pacific Coast, streamlining major energy projects.

He dropped an unpopular federal carbon tax as soon as he took office and suspended clean electricity rules, only in Alberta.

“Mr Carney has been travelling the world to try and drum up investors and buyers for the province’s natural resources,” the Globe and Mail said in a recent editorial. “The separatists emphasise the financial benefits of independence, but a referendum to leave opens up a pandora’s box of economic harms.”Neighbouring provinces might refuse to carry Alberta’s oil on pipelines through their territory, it suggested.

“New trade barriers and reduced investment would shrink the economy – lessons Britain learned the hard way after Brexit.”The referendum vote will take place on Monday against a backdrop of Donald Trump’s aggressive trade war with Canada Mr Sylvestre doubts the polls are capturing a true picture.

“People here are afraid of the government,” he said, referring to the heavy-handed state response to the trucker’s protest during Canada’s coronavirus lockdown. “They’re afraid of being locked up. Afraid of having their bank accounts frozen.”

“I believe that polling is incredibly inaccurate, based on the fact that nobody here is going to tell a stranger on the phone that they’re for Albertan independence.”Equally, he rejected claims that the separatists were working in league with the White House – or that the entire referendum vote was simply a ploy to give Ms Smith extra leverage in her demand for further concessions from the central government.

“I don’t see us moving from [control by] Ottawa to Washington,” he said, adding that Mr Trump and the fringe local movement to join the US as a 51st state “don’t even enter the conversation” at most town halls.

Competing referendum signs line a boulevard in Calgary For decades, Albertans have railed against “equalisation” payments, whereby Ottawa hands money from taxpayers in the wealthy province to less economically viable regions, such as liberal Quebec and Ontario.

At the same time, these poorer regions have an outsize influence on Canada’s politics, thanks to their large urban populations and the lack of a US-style senate system to safeguard the concerns of smaller, rural provinces such as Alberta.

According to the free-market Fraser Institute think tank, Alberta has contributed $320bn Canadian dollars (£170bn) more to the federal treasury since 2007 than it has received in government spending.

Mr Sylvestre said, “I don’t see any other way” than Alberta keeping all its oil revenues if it becomes an independent nation. There was no need to worry about a future alone in the world.

“Everything’s already here. The infrastructure’s here. The capable people are here. The resources are here. The expertise to do it is already here.”Mr Sylvestre argued there was another reason to quit Canada under Mr Carney: the prime minister’s quest to become an “associate member” of the EU.

Although that relationship carries no prospect of free movement, Mr Sylvestre felt the move risked introducing Europe’s “open borders” to his home state.

He said: “Why would we allow uncontrolled immigration to come from anywhere, including Europe, when there’s 450 million people there and 40 million here? There’s room for a lot more people here, sure... but the infrastructure just cannot keep up even with where we are right now.”