Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s “Canada Strong” strategy vows to “unite” and “secure” the nation in the face of an ongoing trade war with the U.S. Canadians are encouraged to support his efforts to “stand up to” President Donald Trump and help “build a stronger Canada.”But Carney’s united front is being tested once more, following separatist Parti Québécois’ (PQ) win in Quebec’s provincial election on Monday. The win came just two weeks before Alberta is set to vote on Oct. 19 over whether to remain in Canada or move ahead with a second binding vote on separation.

The PQ has already pledged its intention to hold a referendum on Quebec independence. “The courageous battle of Francophones to protect their language and culture will succeed when they have their own country,” said Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, Quebec’s incoming Premier, during his victory speech.

However, Plamondon has vowed that no such referendum will be held “as long as Trump is President of the United States,” citing the political upheaval of the trade standoff.

Even if he were to change his mind, holding such a referendum without a majority in Quebec’s National Assembly would prove difficult, experts say. The party fell five seats short of the 64 needed to form a majority government. “In order to have a referendum, you need to have the question adopted by the National Assembly of Quebec, and Plamondon is not going to have the votes for that,” says Stéphane Paquin, a professor of public policy and international political economy at the École nationale d’administration publique (ENAP) in Montreal.

Still, the mere threat of a separatist agenda undoubtedly challenges Carney’s efforts to maintain a cohesive approach at a time when Canada needs to put its strongest foot forward. Carney congratulated Plamondon on his victory by stressing that “building a stronger Quebec is at the heart of our mission to build a stronger Canada.”After trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada collapsed in August, Carney met virtually with provincial and territorial Premiers to strategize. He used the opportunity to underscore his view that “Canada is strongest when governments stand together.”

The trade standoff with the U.S. comes after months of escalating tensions, as Trump has repeatedly threatened to annex Canada and make it the “51st state” since returning to office.

Despite PQ’s victory, there are few outward signs that the majority French-speaking province is seeking independence. Polling by 338Canada found that around 70% of Quebecers opposed independence as recently as Oct. 4. In a Pallas Data-L’Actualité-Qc125 poll published on Sept. 15, 64% of Quebecers said they were against holding a third referendum on sovereignty—suggesting the unsuccessful attempts in 1980 and 1995 did little to whet Quebecers’ appetite Nor should the separatist party's victory necessarily be interpreted as a rejection of Carney.

The Prime Minister remains popular in Quebec—a poll by Abacus Data in late September found Carney had a net impression of +46, with 59% of Quebecers identifying Trump and his Administration as one of the three most important issues facing Canada. Quebec has been particularly vulnerable to tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration.

An August analysis by the National Bank of Canada estimates that Quebec faces the highest average effective U.S. tariff rate in Canada at roughly 11%. According to provincial data, Quebec’s exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals dropped by nearly 25% in 2025, alongside double-digit declines in autos, chemicals, and plastics products.

André Lecours, a professor of political studies at the University of Ottawa, says the presence of Trump was felt heavily throughout the Quebec election, as his trade threats had already dampened the separatist movement.

“It prompted PQ to commit to holding a referendum only after the departure of the President,” Lecours says. “Most Quebecers don't want an independence referendum at this point, anyway, so it helped to make the referendum something distant.”Tensions between Carney and Plamondon Lecours says it is “not in the DNA of PQ to collaborate with the government of Canada” and suggests there may be difficult conversations ahead.

That tension is already visible over the trade war, he notes. When Carney decided to match U.S. tariffs “dollar-for-dollar”, Plamondon publicly opposed the approach, saying “it directly harms” Quebec's economy.

“The intergovernmental relations with Quebec is going to be a challenge, especially in the context of the negotiations with the U.S.,” Lecours predicts. “If there's anything in these negotiations driving towards an agreement that seems to diminish Quebec, its economy, or its sectors, then PQ is going to denounce it.”“PQ still wants to have a referendum on independence, so it has very few incentives to make this relationship [with Carney] work or seem productive,” Lecours adds.

The PQ has also voiced opposition to the federal government's proposed high-speed rail project that would connect Toronto to Montreal and on to Quebec City, which could cause further issues.

Alberta separatism movement adds plight to Carney’s unity efforts Carney is facing a separatist challenge in the energy-rich province of Alberta. An Oct. 19 referendum, set to also include immigration and constitutional questions, will ask Albertans: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”The vote will not itself be a binding referendum on separation. Instead, it will determine whether the government should begin the legal process required to hold such a referendum.

Polling from 338Canada on Sept. 20 showed 74% of Albertans wish to remain in Canada.

Carney’s government has meanwhile sought to court support in Alberta through new business proposals, including a high-speed rail line that would connect Calgary to Edmonton via Red Deer, linking Alberta's two largest cities, and the Pacific Link oil pipeline project, which would carry crude oil from Bruderheim, Alberta, to a deep-water port near Delta, British Columbia.

“That’s the scale of what Alberta and Canada can achieve—and the speed with which we can achieve it–when we work together,” Carney said on Oct. 1, announcing that Canada will fast-track the approval process for the pipeline. “And we will build together—with Alberta, British Columbia, and every province and territory—in the true spirit of cooperative federalism, harnessing the full force of a united Canada.”But experts say Carney must strike a careful balance, with efforts to address separatist discontent in Alberta potentially influencing perceptions elsewhere, particularly in Quebec.

“In order to prevent support for independence in Alberta, the Carney government’s strategy is to put more money and investment in the direction of Alberta,” says Paquin. “[Quebecans] might compare what he's doing to Alberta to what he does to Quebec. If he has a stronger stance against Quebec or a more aggressive approach, then it could lead to more support for Quebec independence.”