Morningstar DBRS表示，即使意大利重新陷入政治不稳定，它也可能继续坚持欧盟的财政纪律。
Italy will probably keep adhering to the European Union’s budget discipline even if it reverts to political instability, Morningstar DBRS said.
作者：Alessandra Migliaccio 和 Craig Stirling 该集团的财政制度将成为任何试图扩张公共财政的未来政府的制约因素，公司在周五的一份声明中表示，并维持其信用评级为A-（低），展望稳定。
By Alessandra Migliaccio and Craig Stirling The bloc’s fiscal regime will be a brake on any future government that tries to stretch the public finances, company said in a statement on Friday, as it kept its credit rating at A- (low) with a stable outlook.
“DBRS认为主要的政治风险是选举结果不明确，导致议会悬峙，”报告称。“鉴于欧洲财政框架和市场纪律的限制，它认为下届政府显著偏离欧盟财政规则的风险有限。”这种克制与法国形成鲜明对比，在法国，政治碎片化显著阻碍了埃马纽埃尔·马克龙总统修复公共财政的努力。
“DBRS considers the main political risk to be an inconclusive election result leading to a hung parliament,” the report said. “It sees limited risk that the next administration will significantly deviate from the EU fiscal rules, given the constraints of the European fiscal framework and market discipline.”Such restraint would contrast notably with France, where political fragmentation has notably impeded President Emmanuel Macron’s efforts to repair the public finances.
意大利的相对审慎凸显了总理乔治娅·梅洛尼政府可能对欧元区第三大经济体留下的遗产。
Italy’s comparative prudence points to the legacy that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government is likely to leave on the euro zone’s third-biggest economy.
尽管其民粹主义言论，她的联盟政府已将赤字缩小到如今预计将很快退出欧盟特别监管机制的程度。其本周提交给布鲁塞尔的三年财政计划旨在使赤字在明年降低至3%以下。
Despite its populist rhetoric, her coalition narrowed the deficit to the point that it now anticipates an imminent exit from the EU’s special monitoring regime. Its three-year fiscal plan delivered to Brussels this week aims to get the shortfall below 3% in the coming year.
梅洛尼的预算是意大利举行大选前的最后一次预算。她领导的三党联盟正在准备应对民族主义政治家罗伯托·万纳奇提出的新挑战。
Meloni’s budget is the last before Italy is due to hold a general election. The three-party coalition she has led is preparing to face down the new challenge posed by ultranationalist politician Roberto Vannacci.
无论结果如何，谁上台都无法承受让国家公共财政恶化的代价，DBRS表示。该机构一年前的评级上调使意大利得以重新获得自2018年以来任何主要信用评估机构的最高评分。
Whatever the outcome, whoever takes charge can’t afford to let the country’s public finances deteriorate, said DBRS, whose upgrade a year ago allowed Italy to regain its highest score from any major credit assessor since 2018.
报告称：“下届政府需要重申意大利对审慎财政政策的承诺，并提出可信的措施。”报告指出：“利息负担增加、人口结构不利趋势以及国防支出需求上升将继续限制财政前景。”
“The next government will need to reaffirm Italy’s commitment to prudent fiscal policy and set out credible measures,” the report said. “A rising interest burden, adverse demographic trends and higher defense spending requirements will continue to constrain the fiscal outlook.”