分析人士表示，意大利明年的全国大选令罗马逆转其巨额公共债务上升的计划蒙上阴影，并警告称，近年来意大利国债的强劲市场需求可能正在走向终结。
Italy's national election next year throws doubt on Rome's plans to reverse the rise in its huge public debt, analysts say, warning that the strong market appetite for Italian bonds in recent years may be coming to an end.
意大利3万亿欧元（3.36万亿美元）的政府债券市场是全球规模最大的之一，近期因法国债务出现剧烈抛售带来的传染效应而再次受到审查，与此同时，国内政治不确定性加剧，欧盟后疫情复苏基金的提振作用也在减弱。
Italy's €3-trillion ($3.36 trillion) government bond market, one of the world's biggest, has come under renewed scrutiny amid contagion from a sharp selloff in French debt, while domestic political uncertainty mounts and the boost from European Union post-COVID recovery funds fades.
总理乔治亚·梅洛尼一直奉行审慎的财政政策，但由于她领导的右翼联盟在民意调查中落后于中左翼力量，分析人士称，她将在明年选举前面临开闸放水的压力。
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has followed a largely prudent fiscal policy, but with her rightist coalition trailing the centre-left in opinion polls, she will be under pressure to open the purse strings ahead of next year's vote, analysts say.
“我们预计财政风险溢价将在选举前继续积累，”高盛高级欧洲经济学家菲利波·塔德伊对路透社表示。
"We expect fiscal risk premia to continue to build ahead of the election," Filippo Taddei, Senior European Economist at Goldman Sachs, told Reuters.
意大利国债近期的疲软受到法国债务抛售的影响，法国政府虚弱，正努力通过预算，且明年将迎来关键选举，但焦点也在转向意大利的政治复杂性。
Recent weakness in Italian bonds has been driven by the selloff in France, where a weakened government is trying to pass a budget and a key election looms next year, but focus is also turning to Italy's political complications.
欧元区第三大经济体的10年期国债（BTP）收益率本月升至4.7%，与避险德债（Bunds）的收益率差距——这一指标衡量投资者持有意大利债务所要求的风险溢价——已扩大至近18个月以来的最大水平。
The yield on the 10-year bonds (BTPs) of the euro zone's third-largest economy hit 4.7% this month and the yield gap with safe-haven Bunds - a market gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold Italian debt - reached its widest in almost 18 months.
今年以来，BTP收益率已上升超过100个基点，并有望录得自2022年以来的最大年度涨幅，彼时通胀激增引发利率上升。
The BTP yield has risen more than 100 basis points so far this year and is set for the biggest annual jump since 2022, when an inflation surge sparked a rise in interest rates.
瑞士银行瑞银建议投资者做空BTP，预测德债-BTP利差将从1月的60个基点扩大至150个基点，目前该利差约为105个基点。做空头寸是指押注资产价格将下跌。
Swiss bank UBS has recommended that investors go short BTPs, forecasting that the Bund-BTP spread, which was as narrow as 60 basis points in January, will widen to 150 bps. It currently stands at around 105. A short position is a bet that an asset will weaken in price.
高盛集团的塔德迪表示，意大利的债务与GDP比率在2025年已攀升至136.7%，并将在至少2028年前持续上升。他警告称，如果10年期BTP债券收益率持续高于4%，未来几年债务将继续增加。
Goldman Sachs' Taddei said Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio, which climbed to 136.7% in 2025, will remain on a rising path at least until 2028, and warned that if 10-year BTP yields remain above 4% the debt will continue to increase in future years.
更高的债券收益率意味着更高的债务偿付成本。意大利财政部数据显示，去年意大利的利息支出已超过1000亿欧元，而9月份的平均发行成本从一年前的2.75%上升至3%。
Higher bond yields mean higher debt-servicing costs. Italian interest spending exceeded €100 billion last year, while average issuance costs rose to 3% in September from 2.75% a year earlier, Treasury data showed.
政府曾设定目标，计划今年将预算赤字降至国内生产总值的2.9%，刚好控制在欧盟3%的上限以内；但为了增加国防开支并应对能源成本的飙升，未来两年赤字将再次超过3%。
The government has targeted the budget deficit to fall this year to 2.9% of gross domestic product, just inside the EU's 3% ceiling, only to rise back above 3% in the next two years in order to hike defence spending and tackle surging energy costs.
然而，形势也并非完全悲观。前两个季度的经济增长表现优于预期，本月政府还将2026年全年的增长预测从0.6%上调至1%。这主要得益于欧盟提供的数十亿欧元后疫情时代资金，这些资金推动了投资增长。
The picture is not all bleak, however. Growth held up better than expected in the first two quarters and the government this month hiked its full-year 2026 growth forecast to 1% from 0.6%, thanks in large measure to billions of euros of EU post-COVID funds which have lifted investments.
随着该计划下的欧盟付款预计将在12月结束，TS Lombard全球宏观主管达维德·奥内利亚表示，意大利现在需要结构性改革，而不仅仅是财政审慎。
With EU payments under the programme due to end by December, TS Lombard global macro director Davide Oneglia said the country now needed structural reforms, not just fiscal caution.
“梅洛尼并没有一个宏大的经济计划，”他上周在伦敦举行的TS Lombard会议上表示。“仅仅维持现状是不够的，她自身的政治稳定也并非板上钉钉。”评级机构穆迪去年将意大利的主权评级从“Baa3”上调至“Baa2”，但上周在一份新报告中表达了类似的担忧。
"Meloni doesn't have a big plan for the economy," he said at a TS Lombard conference last week in London. "Not rocking the boat is not enough and her own political stability is not certain." Ratings agency Moody's, which a year ago upgraded Italy's sovereign rating to "Baa2" from "Baa3", raised similar concerns in a new report last week.
报告指出：“经济增长放缓、财政纪律松懈或改革动力减弱，都将使预计的债务削减路径面临风险。”
"Slower growth, reduced fiscal discipline or weaker reform momentum would put the projected debt reduction trajectory at risk," it said.