意大利央行上调了对该国经济的前景，与首相乔尔吉亚·梅洛尼（Giorgia Meloni）政府的预测相一致。
The Bank of Italy raised its outlook for the country’s economy, aligning with the predictions of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government.
“2026年上调的主要原因是，今年上半年中东危机的影响不如6月预期严重，此外数字化和能源转型相关的投资趋势 favorable，以及夏季季节旅游业的增长，”央行在最新的经济公报中表示。
“The upward revision for 2026 primarily reflects the fact that the impact of the Middle East crisis in the first two quarters of this year was less severe than anticipated in June, as well as favorable trends in investments related to the digital and energy transitions and, during the summer quarter, in tourism,” the central bank said in its latest economic bulletin.
今年（按工作日调整后）经济预计增长0.9%，高于6月预测的0.5%；若不进行该调整，预测增幅最高可达1%，与政府预测相符。
The economy is seen growing 0.9% this year, corrected for working days, up from 0.5% predicted in June. Without that adjustment, the forecast is for expansion of as much as 1%, matching the government forecasts.
央行指出，计划中的国防和能源支出将推动经济增长，2027年和2028年的经济增速分别预计为0.7%和0.8%。
Planned expenses for defense and energy will contribute to economic growth, the Bank of Italy said. The economy is seen growing 0.7% and 0.8% in 2027 and 2028 respectively.
意大利内阁日前批准了明年的预算案，该预算案在税收减免和对家庭及企业的援助之间取得平衡，秉持谨慎的财政立场，旨在使意大利的财政赤字保持在欧盟3%占GDP的上限范围内。
Italy’s cabinet has just approved the budget for next year. which balances tax cuts and aid to families and businesses with a prudent fiscal stance aiming to place Italy within the EU’s 3% of GDP deficit ceiling.
这份预算案是明年大选前的最后一份预算，正值梅洛尼面对日益严峻的投资者审视、日益争吵的执政联盟以及来自极右派对手罗贝里欧·范诺纳奇（Roberto Vannacci）的挑战之际。
It is the last budget before elections next year and comes at a critical juncture for Meloni who is fighting against heightened investor scrutiny. an increasingly quarrelsome governing coalition and a challenge from far right opponent Roberto Vannacci.
财政部长詹卡洛·乔尔吉埃蒂（Giancarlo Giorgetti）早前表示，他看到“风暴云”在眼前，需要保持国家在财政上的正确航向。伊朗战争推高了能源价格，给欧元区公民的生活带来压力。
Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said earlier this week that he sees “storm clouds” on the horizon, and a need to keep the country on course financially. The Iran war has driven up energy prices. putting a strain on citizens across the euro-area.
“核心通胀略有上升，”意大利央行表示。“消费者通胀预计将在2026年平均升至3.2%，在第四季度达到峰值，随后降至2027年的2.4%和2028年的1.7%。”梅洛尼曾要求欧盟在所谓的国家逃逸条款下为能源和国防提供额外空间。政府计划在两年内花费约280亿欧元（315亿美元），相当于国内生产总值的1.2%。这比之前为国防规划的支出少了70亿欧元。
“Core inflation has risen slightly,” the Bank of Italy said. “Consumer inflation is expected to rise to an average of 3.2% in 2026, peaking in the fourth quarter, before falling to 2.4% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028.”Meloni has asked the European Union for extra leeway for energy and defense under the so-called national escape clause. The government plans to spend around €28 billion ($31.5 billion) over two years, or 1.2% of gross domestic product. That’s €7 billion less than previously planned for defense.
意大利和德国10年期国债收益率差距（风险衡量指标）目前约为107个基点，略有收窄，此前本月早些时候曾达到一年多来的最高点。这些水平仍远低于梅洛尼2022年任期初期超过200个基点的水平。
The spread between Italian and German 10-year government bonds, a measure of risk, is around 107 basis points, narrowing slightly, after reaching its highest point in over a year earlier this month. Those levels are still well below the more than 200 basis points reached at the beginning of Meloni’s term in 2022.