意大利主要商界游说团体意大利工业联合会周三预测，该国经济今年将增长1%，较3月时作出的0.5%的先前预测有所上调，但该组织警告称，预计2027年将再度出现经济放缓。
Italy's economy will grow by 1% this year, the country's main business lobby Confindustria forecast on Wednesday, hiking a previous 0.5% estimate made in March but warning that a renewed slowdown is expected in 2027.
意大利工业联合在其半年期报告中表示，今年前景的改善很大程度上要归功于欧盟的新冠疫情后复苏基金（PNRR），该基金提振了投资，并确保了前两个季度强于预期的增长。
The improved outlook this year is thanks in large measure to European Union post-COVID-19 funds (PNRR) which have boosted investments and ensured firmer-than-expected growth in the first two quarters, Confindustria said in its twice-yearly report.
该组织表示，中东的动荡导致全球油价的涨幅小于预期。在意大利，能源成本向其他商品和服务价格的传导比担心的要弱。然而，今年下半年的季度增长将很疲软。由于PNRR的结束、近期油价上涨以及更高的通货膨胀率和利率，2027年的经济增长将放缓至0.6%。意大利工业联合会对2026年1%的经济增长预测与乔治娅·梅洛尼政府的预测一致。
It said turmoil in the Middle East had driven up global oil prices by less than expected In Italy, the pass-through from energy costs to prices of other goods and services has been weaker than feared However, quarterly growth in the second half of the year will be weak Growth will slow to 0.6% in 2027 due to the end of the PNRR, the recent rise in oil prices, and higher inflation and interest rates Confindustria's 2026 growth forecast of 1% is in line with that of Giorgia Meloni's government.
政府对2027年的预测为0.8%。去年的经济增长率为0.6%。意大利工业联合会预测2026年预算赤字占国内生产总值的比例为2.9%，与政府一致。该组织将其对意大利2026年平均通胀率的预测从2.5%大幅上调至3.2%。
For 2027 the government forecasts 0.8% Growth last year came in at 0.6% Confindustria forecast the 2026 budget deficit-to-gross domestic product ratio at 2.9%, in line with the government It sharply hiked its forecast for Italy's 2026 average inflation rate to 3.2% from 2.5%