意大利最大的商业游说团体表示，不断恶化的能源冲击可能会抹去意大利明年的经济增长，高昂的电价和欧盟碳成本正在损害工业竞争力。
A worsening energy shock could wipe out Italy’s economic growth next year, with high power prices and European Union carbon costs hurting industrial competitiveness, according to the country’s largest business lobby.
意大利最大的雇主组织意大利工业联合在其秋季预测中表示，如果布伦特原油平均价格达到每桶约126美元（约为9月水平的四分之一左右），政府预计的明年0.6%的经济增长可能会被“抹去”。该组织称，如果油价为115美元、欧洲天然气价格为每兆瓦时89欧元，也会出现同样的情况。
The government’s expected economic growth of 0.6% next year could be “wiped out” if Brent crude averaged about $126 a barrel, or roughly a quarter above September levels, Confindustria, Italy’s biggest employers’ organization, said in its autumn forecast. The same would happen with oil at $115 and European gas at €89 per megawatt-hour, it said.
在此次发出警告之际，在由中东冲突和霍尔木兹海峡航运中断引发的能源冲击背景下，总理焦尔吉娅·梅洛尼的政府正在筹备2027年预算。罗马方面还在极力推动修改欧盟碳市场，并正与布鲁塞尔合作采取措施遏制电价。
The warning comes as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government prepares its 2027 budget amid the energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Rome is also pushing to change the EU carbon market and is working with Brussels on measures to curb power prices.
意大利工业联合会表示，逐步取消欧盟免费碳排放配额面临给工业带来进一步压力的风险。
Confindustria said the phaseout of free EU carbon permits risks putting further pressure on industry.
该组织表示：“免费配额的取消将导致更多公司倒闭。”并估计该成本将超过受该系统涵盖的18%制造商的年度营业利润。
“The elimination of free allowances will lead to further company closures,” it said, estimating the cost would exceed annual operating earnings for 18% of manufacturers covered by the system.
意大利工业联合会认为，工业排放的大幅下降在很大程度上反映的是产能损失，而不是工厂变得更加清洁。据其估计，在2005年至2025年期间，随着386家工厂关闭，工厂倒闭占到欧盟碳市场涵盖的意大利制造商排放量下降43%的一半以上。V该报告预测意大利今年的增长率为1%，随后在2027年放缓至0.6%，通货膨胀率预计分别平均为3.2%和2.2%。2026年前九个月，意大利的电价比德国高出35%。
Confindustria argues that much of the decline in industrial emissions reflected lost production capacity rather than factories becoming cleaner. It estimates that closures accounted for over half of the 43% drop in emissions from Italian manufacturers covered by the EU carbon market between 2005 and 2025, as 386 plants shut over the period. The report forecasts growth of 1% this year for Italy, before slowing to 0.6% in 2027, with inflation averaging 3.2% and 2.2%, respectively. Italian electricity prices were 35% higher than in Germany in the first nine months of 2026.