法国债务动荡使欧洲的财政压力在最近几周变得格外突出，但投资者的注意力正在迅速转向意大利，因为其有争议的新政府支出计划。
French debt turmoil has thrust Europe's fiscal pressures into sharp focus in recent weeks, but investors' attention is quickly turning to Italy amid contentious new government spending plans.
意大利政府将于下周公布一份预算，其中包括最近批准的国防和能源拨款，这些拨款将在未来两年扩大该国的赤字，并使意大利的债务与GDP比率有望成为欧洲最高，高盛分析师如是说。
The Italian government will next week present a budget encompassing recently approved allocations to defense and energy, which are set to widen the country's deficit over the next two years and put Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio on track to become the highest in Europe, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
高盛欧洲资深经济学家Filippo Taddei表示，这些变化可能会在明年大选前进一步加大意大利政府债券的压力。
Filippo Taddei, senior European economist at Goldman, said the changes could heap further pressure on Italian government bonds ahead of next year's general election.
10月2日，总理乔治亚·梅洛尼领导的中右翼政府批准了在未来两年内为国防和能源支出额外借款280亿欧元（310亿美元）。尽管支出计划已被削减，但它已将意大利2027年的赤字目标提高至GDP的3.4%，2028年目标提高至GDP的3.2%。这高于今年4月的早期预测（分别为2.8%和2.5%），也高于高盛的预测。
On Oct. 2, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's center-right government approved an extra 28 billion euros ($31 billion) in borrowing over the next two years for defense and energy spending. Although scaled back, the spending plans have raised Italy's 2027 deficit target to 3.4% of GDP, and its 2028 target to 3.2%. That's up from earlier April projections of 2.8% and 2.5%, respectively, and above Goldman forecasts.
这些措施 — — 在国防和能源之间平均分配，每项在2027年和2028年每年约占GDP的0.3% — — 正值投资者对欧洲大陆政府债务失控日益担忧之际。
The measures — which are split evenly between defense and energy, with each worth about 0.3% of GDP per year in 2027 and 2028 — come amid rising investor jitters over runaway government borrowing across the continent.
法国债务困境：法国政府债券收益率在最近几天飙升至多年高点，因该国债务危机加剧，引发了人们对欧洲公共财政紧张的更广泛担忧。
French bond woes Yields on French government bonds have surged to multiyear highs in recent days, as the country's mounting debt crisis fuels wider concerns about Europe's strained public finances.
法国的基准10年期OAT收益率周五下降3个基点至4.85%，因油价下跌。10年期意大利国债（BTPs）收益率最后见于下降5个基点至4.55%。截至中欧时间1:40（东部时间7:40 a.m.），10年期德国国债（Bunds，欧元区债务基准）与意大利BTPs之间的利差约为108个基点。Taddei表示，鉴于赤字扩大，意大利的财政风险溢价可能在该国下次大选前上升，该大选将不晚于2027年12月22日举行。
France's benchmark 10-year OAT yield dipped 3 basis points on Friday to 4.85%, amid lower oil prices. Yields on 10-year Italian BTPs were last seen 5 basis points lower at 4.55%. The spread between 10-year German Bunds, the benchmark for eurozone debt, and Italian BTPs was about 108 basis points by 1:40 p.m. CET (7:40 a.m. E.T.) Taddei said Italy's fiscal risk premia could rise ahead of the country's next general election, due no later than December 22, 2027, on the back of the widening deficit.
一次接近的选举可能会留给财政紧缩的空间甚微，因为左右两派的政党都在寻求"加入支持增加支出的伙伴"以建立可行的联盟，他解释道。"宽松的财政政策、收紧的金融条件以及接近的选举竞争，在经历了四年的财政紧缩之后，似乎正准备削弱债务前景，"他在周四的一份备忘录中表示。"重大上行惊喜"意大利议员周四投票决定改革该国的选举制度，从混合模式转向更具比例性的制度。
A close-run election could leave little scope for fiscal consolidation, as parties on both the right and left look to "add spending-supportive partners" to build viable coalitions, he explained. "Looser fiscal policy, tighter financial conditions and a close electoral race appear poised to weaken the debt outlook after four years of fiscal consolidation," he said in a note Thursday. 'Significant upward surprise' Italian lawmakers voted Thursday to overhaul the country's electoral process, switching from a hybrid model to a more proportional system.
梅洛尼领导的右翼联盟表示，这一变化将带来更稳定的政府，并避免选举后出现混乱的谈判。但左翼反对者认为，这些变化旨在帮助梅洛尼继续掌权。
Meloni's right-wing coalition says the change will lead to more stable governments and avoid chaotic post-election dealmaking. But left-leaning opponents said the changes are designed to help Meloni cling to power.
梅洛尼的政府——将在下周公布其最后一次选前预算——因降低赤字而受到赞誉，该赤字在2025年达到3.1%。
Meloni's administration — which will deliver its final pre-election budget next week — has been praised for lowering the deficit, which reached 3.1% in 2025.
作为回报，债券市场奖励了意大利新发现的政治稳定性，梅洛尼最近成为二战以来任期最长的意大利领导人。
Bond markets, in turn, have rewarded the country's new-found political stability, with Meloni recently becoming the longest-serving Italian leader since the World War II.
这些支出增加符合欧盟的"国家逃逸条款"，该条款允许成员国在国防和能源投资方面临时享有预算灵活性，以应对俄罗斯在乌克兰战争和中东冲突造成的冲击。
The spending hikes comply with the EU's National Escape Clause, which permits member states temporary budget flexibility on defense and energy investments to address shocks caused by Russia's war in Ukraine and the Middle East conflict.
然而，塔德伊表示，新的赤字目标是一个"重大上行惊喜"。"我们发现，财政赤字上升加上收益率上扬，很可能使债务占GDP的比率在2028年前呈上升趋势，届时将稳定在约137%——届时将成为欧洲最高水平，"塔德伊指出。"在当前环境下，收益率上升构成关键挑战，我们发现，如果10年期收益率结构性升至4%以上，很可能使意大利的债务占GDP比率在此之后呈上升趋势。""
Still, Taddei said the new deficit targets are a "significant upward surprise". "We find that higher fiscal deficits, in addition to rising yields, look set to put the debt-to-GDP ratio on an upward path until 2028, before stabilizing around 137% — the highest in Europe by then," Taddei noted. "Higher yields provide a key challenge in the current environment, and we find that a structural shift to 10-year yields higher than 4% would likely set Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio on an increasing path beyond that."
艰难的财政决策"康斯坦丁·维特，PIMCO投资组合经理表示，全球债券收益率的近期抛售重新将焦点放在了基本面相对较弱的国家。
'Difficult fiscal decisions' Konstantin Veit, portfolio manager at PIMCO, said the recent selloff in global bond yields has renewed the focus on countries with relatively weaker fundamentals.
维特指出，虽然法国政府债券被海外投资者广泛持有 — — 使其更容易受到负面新闻流的影响 — — 但意大利主权债务则主要由国内投资者持有，这通常是“一个稳定因素”。 “虽然意大利的债务更高，但它拥有更强的初级平衡、相对有利的发展轨迹、政治稳定以及进行必要调整的历史，”维特说。
Veit noted that while French government bonds are widely held by overseas investors — leaving them more exposed to negative news flow — Italian sovereign debt, in contrast, is mainly in domestic hands, which is typically "a stabilizing factor." "While Italy has higher debt, it has a stronger primary balance, a relatively favorable trajectory, political stability and a history of making the necessary adjustments," Veit said.
与法国相比，意大利整体目前似乎处于“相对更有利的位置”，他补充道，具有“更强的基本面、更直接的政治格局以及采取艰难财政决策的记录。”但投资者已经开始将注意力转向意大利债务中的机遇。
Compared to France, Italy overall seems in a "relatively better place" at this stage, he added, with "stronger fundamentals, a more straightforward political configuration, and a track record of taking difficult fiscal decisions." But investors are already zeroing in on opportunities in Italian debt.
瑞银投资银行欧洲利率策略主管雷诺特·德博克最近公布了对意大利国债（BTPs）的空头头寸，押注意大利债务可能成为欧洲主权债务中的下一个薄弱环节。
Reinout De Bock, head of European rates strategy at UBS Investment Bank, recently unveiled a short position in Italian BTPs, wagering that Italian debt could emerge as the next weak link in European sovereign debt.
“我认为意大利可能会赶上，人们也会在这些更高的收益率下对意大利更加担忧，尽管意大利已经进行了许多改革，”德博克在CNBC的《Squawk Box Europe》节目中说道。
"I think Italy maybe will catch up, and people will get more concerned about Italy as well at these higher yields, despite a lot of reforms that have been done in Italy," de Bock told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."