意大利在大选临近之际坚持财政纪律，这对Scope Ratings（Scope评级）而言是一项关键考验，该机构维持了对意大利的正面展望。
Italy sticks with fiscal discipline as an election approaches is a key test for Scope Ratings, which kept its positive outlook on the country.
该公司重申了对欧元区第三大经济体的BBB+评级，并表示将关注随着总理焦尔吉娅·梅洛尼政府进入执政最后一年，对预算的克制态度能否持续。
The company reaffirmed its BBB+ score on the euro zone’s third-biggest economy and said it’s watching to see whether a restrained attitude to budgets can endure as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government enters its final year in office.
该公司在声明中表示：“Scope将监测这些政策承诺在下一个选举周期内是否得以维持，包括选举法可能发生的变化，以及2027年大选的结果是否能保持政策连续性、财政纪律和改革实施。”
“Scope will monitor whether these policy commitments are maintained through the next electoral cycle, including the possible changes to the electoral law and whether the outcome of the 2027 general elections preserves policy continuity, fiscal discipline and reform implementation,” the company said in a statement.
上调评级将意味着意大利重获自2018年以来在Scope的最高评级。其声明暗示，这一结果仍需时间才能实现。
An upgrade would mean allowing Italy to regain its highest score at Scope since 2018. The suggestion from its statement is that such an outcome will still take time to materialize.
在梅洛尼领导下，该国获得了一系列上调和评级改善，其中包括穆迪评级去年首次自2002年以来上调意大利评级。
Under Meloni, the country has seen a series of upgrades and improved ratings from assessors, including last year’s move by Moody’s Ratings to upgrade the country for the first time since 2002.
这些赞誉部分归功于政府的稳定性，以及为控制国家财政所做的努力，预计明年赤字将降至欧盟规定的国内生产总值3%限值以下。
Those plaudits are in part due to the government’s stability and the work done to keep the country’s finances in check with a deficit seen falling below the European Union’s 3% of economic output limit next year.
Scope表示：“对持续财政纪律和更强经济韧性的预期支撑了正面展望。高公共债务、疲弱的增长潜力和不利的人口结构仍是关键评级制约因素。”梅洛尼最新的预算案——大选前的最后一份预算案——在财政立场上也保持审慎，同时仍试图争取一些减税和对家庭及企业的援助。该预算案还充分利用了欧盟给予的额外空间，为能源和国防分配了约280亿欧元（约合313亿美元）的额外借款额度。
“Expectations of continued fiscal discipline and greater economic resilience support the positive outlook,” Scope said. “High public debt, weak growth potential and adverse demographics remain key rating constraints.”Meloni’s latest budget, the last before elections next year, is also conservative in its fiscal stance while still trying to eek out some tax cuts and aid to families and businesses. It also takes full advantage of extra leeway allowed by the EU with about €28 billion ($31.3 billion) in extra borrowing allocated to energy and defense.
意大利10年期国债收益率与德国同期国债收益率的利差已扩大至120个基点以上。不过，这仍低于她上台时超过200个基点的利差。
The spread between Italian 10-year bond yields and those of Germany has widened to more than 120 basis points. That’s still less than the over 200 basis-point spread when she came to power.