本周美国对乌克兰支持的中断，迫使基辅不得不面对一个严峻的问题：在失去特朗普总统本已减少的支持后，乌克兰能否继续与俄罗斯战斗？乌克兰总统泽连斯基升级了外交攻势，本周早些时候指责特朗普政府限制乌克兰使用埃隆·马斯克的“星链”卫星服务，并指责美方未能就俄罗斯即将发动的袭击提供常规情报。尽管特朗普在战争态度上有所转变，但到目前为止，美国的武器似乎仍在源源不断地流向欧洲。
The disruptions this week in U.S. support for Ukraine have forced Kyiv to face a grim question: Can it stay in the fight against Russia without any of President Trump’s already diminished support? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has escalated a diplomatic assault, earlier this week accusing the Trump administration of throttling its access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite services and failing to offer standard intelligence on incoming Russian strikes. So far, U.S. weapons seem to still be flowing to Europe despite Trump’s turns in the war.
关于是谁选择限制SpaceX的“星链盾”功能，外界的不确定性仍在继续，该功能此后已恢复，但路透社周四报道称，限制该卫星系统的命令来自白宫内部。据报道，国防部领导层被告知需要放慢该服务的运行速度。随后在周五，特朗普表示他和马斯克都没有导致“星链”中断，他在对记者讲话时称：“我没有这么做。不，我们根本没有这样做。”
Uncertainty continues to swirl around who chose to limit SpaceX’s Starshield function, which has since been restored, but Reuters reported Thursday that the order to limit the satellite system came from inside the White House. Leaders at the Defense Department reportedly were told that the service needed to be slowed. Then on Friday, Trump said that neither he nor Musk caused the Starlink outage, telling reporters: “I didn’t do that. No, we didn’t do that at all.”
加州大学圣迭戈分校政治学教授布拉尼斯拉夫·斯兰切夫表示，这一插曲凸显了美国与乌克兰之间日益加深的裂痕，这场争端将基辅置于危险境地，并几乎确保了它与俄罗斯的战争在可预见的未来将继续下去。
The episode highlights a growing rift between the U.S. and Ukraine, a dispute that puts Kyiv in danger and all but makes sure its war with Russia will stretch on for the foreseeable future, according to Branislav Slantchev, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego.
斯兰切夫说：“这对乌克兰的伤害不仅仅是限制了其在前线作战的能力。”他将乌克兰的“星链”和“星链盾”卫星服务被干扰的责任完全归咎于五角大楼，前者用于战场防御目的，后者则用于进攻行动。“星链盾”由美国政府控制，并于周二被减速。
“This hurts Ukraine in more ways than just limiting its ability to operate on the frontlines,” Slantchev said. He placed the blame squarely on the Pentagon for disrupting Ukraine's Starlink and Starshield satellite services, with the former used for defensive purposes on the battlefield and the latter used for offensive operations. Starshield is controlled by the U.S. government and was slowed on Tuesday.
他说，这一插曲助长了莫斯科继续坚持其要求的气焰，包括要求乌克兰做出重大领土让步，因为俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京“估计特朗普领导下的美国站在他这一边”。
斯兰切夫在接受《国会山报》采访时表示：“从本质上讲，这保证了战争将继续下去。乌克兰不会因为‘星链盾’连接受限而输掉战争，但这使得乌克兰削弱俄罗斯伤害其能力的任务变得难上加难。”
He said the episode encourages Moscow to keep pushing with its demands including major territory concessions from Ukraine, as Russian President Vladimir Putin “estimates that the U.S. under Trump is on his side.”
自特朗普去年开始其第二任期以来，华盛顿和基辅之间的关系本就紧张，在上周特朗普宣布解除对俄罗斯石油销售的制裁后，两国关系更是跌至新低。该协议允许柴油进入美国和全球市场，在莫斯科艰难争取战场战果之际为其提供了一条生命线。
“Essentially, this guarantees that the war will continue,” Slantchev told The Hill.
特朗普允许这些销售的决定似乎受到了美国国内高昂柴油价格的影响，柴油价格已成为国会选举中的一个议题，特别是在中西部地区。然而，鉴于高昂价格与霍尔木兹海峡动荡之间的联系，专家们对这一举措是否会降低柴油价格表示怀疑。
“Ukraine is not going to lose the war because of limited Starshield connectivity, but it makes Ukraine's task of incapacitating Russia's ability to hurt it much, much harder.”Relations between Washington and Kyiv, already strained since Trump began his second term last year, were pushed to a new low last week after he announced he was lifting sanctions on Russian oil sales.
泽连斯基公开反对该协议，称自己感到被背叛，对于这一批评，特朗普则以切断美国情报共享相威胁。特朗普还要求乌克兰停止袭击俄罗斯炼油厂，并称应该撤换泽连斯基的总统职务。特朗普辩称，乌克兰对俄罗斯基础设施的袭击导致了燃料价格上涨。
The agreement allows diesel to enter the U.S. and global marketplace, giving Moscow a lifeline as it struggles to make gains on the battlefield. Trump’s decision to allow the sales appeared influenced by the high cost of diesel in the United States, which has become an issue in congressional races, particularly in the Midwest.
华盛顿坚称并未停止情报共享，但周二这一说法受到质疑。此前乌克兰指出，“星链”服务出现中断，据报道乌克兰在基辅遭到两次俄罗斯弹道导弹袭击前并未收到盟友的预警。四年多来，美国一直向基辅提供大量的卫星和通信情报。
泽连斯基的国防技术顾问谢尔盖·别斯克列斯特诺夫表示，SpaceX在夜间毫无预警地对其“星链”卫星互联网终端实施了限速，这“导致了一系列任务的失败”。
Yet there are doubts among experts of whether the step will reduce diesel’s costs given the connection between the high prices and turbulence in the Straight of Hormuz. Zelensky has spoken out against the deal, saying he feels betrayed, criticism that Trump met with threats to cut off U.S. intelligence sharing. Trump also demanded that Ukraine stop attacking Russian oil refineries, saying Zelensky should be replaced as president.
他在电报群上说：“很明显，这一行动绝非巧合，与当前的政治局势有关。”
Trump has argued the Ukrainian attacks on the Russian infrastructure have contributed to rising fuel prices.
随后，泽连斯基周三表示，“星链”运行放慢是一个“重大错误”，并警告称，如果网速没有恢复，乌克兰人可能会死亡。这位乌克兰领导人还表示，美国没有站在“历史正确的一边”。
Washington insists it had not stopped intelligence sharing, but that was called into doubt on Tuesday after Ukraine noted the disruption in Starlink service after the country reportedly was not alerted by allies ahead of two Russian ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv.
直到周五，对于围绕“星链”服务的谜团，特朗普一直保持沉默。马斯克曾表示，“星链盾”系统由美国政府拥有和控制，以此撇清任何关联。
The U.S. for more than four years has provided significant satellite and communications intelligence to Kyiv.
马斯克周三在X上的一篇帖文中表示：“速度或使用的任何限制都由美国军方和最终的美国总统决定。”他指的是特朗普。“‘星链’是SpaceX拥有和控制的商业服务。‘星链’的使用仅限于平民或防御活动，不能用于进攻性军事行动，因为对于一家商业公司来说这样做是不合适的。”
Zelensky’s defense tech adviser, Serhii Beskrestnov, said that SpaceX without warning had introduced speed limits on its Starlink satellite internet terminals overnight, which “led to the failure of a number of missions.”
在2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后不久向乌克兰提供“星链”的马斯克，过去曾关闭过该卫星互联网服务。据报道，在2022年9月乌克兰试图从俄罗斯手中夺回领土时，马斯克下令关闭“星链”，导致乌克兰军队陷入通信中断。
“It is obvious that this action cannot be a coincidence and is connected to the current political situation,” he said on Telegram. Zelensky then said Wednesday that the slowdown of Starlink was a “big mistake” and warned that Ukrainians could die if speeds were not restored.
周四，据报道基辅在夜间对俄罗斯炼油厂实施了打击后，似乎不再有所顾忌。在此之前，乌克兰曾表示应特朗普的要求，将暂停打击克里姆林宫的能源目标。但莫斯科并未达成类似的协议，并在严寒黑暗的冬季来临之前，继续打击乌克兰的能源基础设施。
The Ukrainian leader also said that the U.S. is not “on the right side of history. Trump until Friday had remained quiet on the mystery surrounding the Starlink service. Musk has said Starshield systems are owned and controlled by the U.S. government, deflecting any involvement. “Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS,” Musk said in a post to X on Wednesday, referring to Trump. “Starlink is a commercial service owned and controlled by SpaceX. Usage of Starlink is limited to civilian or defensive activities and cannot be used for offensive military action, as doing so would be inappropriate for a commercial company.” Musk, who provided Starlink to Ukraine shortly after Russia invaded the country in February 2022, has turned off the satellite internet service in the past. In September 2022, as Ukraine was attempting to retake territory from Russia, Musk reportedly gave an order to turn off Starlink, putting Ukrainian troops in a communications blackout. On Thursday the gloves seemed to come off for Kyiv after it reportedly said that it conducted a strike overnight against a Russian oil refinery. Prior to that, Ukraine had said it would hold off on striking Kremlin energy targets at Trump’s request. But Moscow did not make a similar agreement and has continued to hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of a brutally cold and dark winter.