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乌克兰卫星中断暴露现代战争的核心风险Ukraine’s Satellite Disruption Exposes a Central Risk of Modern Warfare

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SpaceX 首席执行官埃隆·马斯克周末声称,乌克兰军队“违反”了 Starlink(星链)的服务条款,该公司的商业卫星互联网网络已成为乌克兰抵御俄罗斯的核心。马斯克表示,SpaceX 已限制星链以防止这种所谓的滥用。乌克兰官员反驳了他的说法。他的指责是在服务受限原因不明朗超过一周后提出的。

Daily · The day's top stories, summarized for you. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk claimed over the weekend that the Ukrainian military had “violated” the terms of service for Starlink, the company’s commercial satellite internet network, which has become central to the country’s defense against Russia. Musk said SpaceX had restricted Starlink to prevent that alleged misuse. Ukrainian officials disputed his claim. His allegation came after over a week of uncertainty about why the services had been restricted.

乌克兰官员于 10 月 14 日报告称,影响 SpaceX 卫星通信的限制正在干扰无人机行动,切断了在每日俄罗斯空袭中的一条关键防线。乌克兰严重依赖星链进行前线通信、无人机能力和侦察;官员称,连接受限最终导致多项任务取消。

Ukrainian officials reported on Oct. 14 that restrictions affecting SpaceX’s satellite communications were disrupting drone operations, blocking a key line of defense amid daily Russian air attacks. Ukraine relies heavily on Starlink for frontline communications, drone capabilities, and reconnaissance; the throttled connection ultimately led to the cancellation of several missions, officials said.

限制还影响了 Starshield(星盾),这是一种使用星链技术但通过美国政府合同提供的军用级卫星通信服务。

The restrictions also affected Starshield, a military-grade satellite communications service that uses Starlink technology but is supplied through U.S. government contracts.

在中断开始一周多后,乌克兰国防部于 10 月 24 日表示,两项服务均已完全恢复。该部报告称,即使终端以超过 400 公里/小时的速度移动,连接仍保持稳定。

Over a week after the disruption began, Ukraine's Defense Ministry said on Oct. 24 that both services had been fully restored. It reported that connections remained stable even when terminals were moving at speeds above 400 km/h.

当时,中断原因尚未查明,但国防部长叶夫根尼·赫马拉强调了强大稳定连接的重要性,称其“对我们的前线、军事人员、无人机行动以及后勤和通信至关重要”。马斯克坚称,美国政府控制星盾的变更,这使得是谁授权了其限制——以及为何授权——成为疑问。

At the time, the cause for the interruption had not yet been clarified, but Defense Minister Yevheniy Khmara emphasized the importance of a strong and stable connection, calling it “vital for our front line, for our military personnel, for the operation of drones, and for logistics and communications.”Musk maintains that the United States government controls changes to Starshield, leaving questions about who authorized its restrictions—and why.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普拒绝透露参与决策的人员,而路透社10月15日的一份报道援引多名官员的话说,该命令来自白宫内部。消息人士未透露是谁授权或实施了这些限制,但一名美国高级官员否认是特朗普,报道称。

U.S. President Donald Trump declined to identify those involved in the decision, while a Reuters report from Oct. 15 cited multiple officials who said the order came from inside the White House. The sources did not identify who authorized or implemented the restrictions, but a senior U.S. official denied that it was Trump, the report said.

专家表示,这些中断暴露了现代战争中日益增长的脆弱性:军队依赖单一的私营技术供应商。

Experts say that the disruptions expose a growing vulnerability in modern warfare: military reliance on a single private technology supplier.

专家警告说,控制该技术的公司最终可以对军事行动施加重大影响,使政府依赖于传统外交渠道之外的高管和亿万富翁所有者所做的决定。

The company that controls the technology can ultimately wield significant influence over military operations, leaving governments dependent on decisions made by executives and billionaire owners outside traditional diplomatic channels, experts warn.

美国对“星盾”控制权为何对乌克兰至关重要 乌克兰对卫星通信的使用取决于华盛顿以及SpaceX做出的决定。这使得基辅既要应对私营供应商的限制,又要应对与特朗普政府紧张的关系。

Why U.S. control of Starshield matters for Ukraine Ukraine’s access to satellite communications depends on decisions made in Washington as well as at SpaceX. That leaves Kyiv navigating both a private supplier’s restrictions and a fraught relationship with the Trump Administration.

最近几周,特朗普多次指责乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂导致全球燃油价格上涨,并呼吁乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基停止这些袭击——尽管专家主要将油价飙升归因于美国与伊朗的冲突。

In recent weeks, Trump has repeatedly blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries for rising global fuel prices and called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop those attacks—despite the fact that experts have primarily attributed the price surge to the U.S. war with Iran.

特朗普于10月15日表示,泽连斯基“比俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京更难打交道”,并于10月19日暗示“是时候让别人代表乌克兰谈判了”。佛罗里达国际大学杰克·D·戈登公共政策研究所兼职教授亚历克斯·克劳瑟表示,“星盾”争端超越了特朗普与泽连斯基关系的恶化,触及了一个更基本的问题:谁有权限制乌克兰的使用权?

Trump said on Oct. 15 that Zelensky was “more difficult to deal with” than Russian President Vladimir Putin and on Oct. 19 suggested that it was “time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine.”Alex Crowther, an adjunct professor at Florida International University’s Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, says the Starshield dispute goes beyond Trump’s souring relationship with Zelensky to a more basic question: Who has the authority to restrict Ukraine’s access?

“通常情况下,当[外国实体]与一家美国公司签署合同时,合同会明确规定谁有能力开启或关闭这些服务,以及在何种情况下可以开启或关闭,”克劳瑟说道,并质疑谁拥有对乌克兰所依赖服务的这种控制权。“是私营的星链,还是与美国政府签订合同的星盾?是马斯克?是赫格塞斯?还是特朗普?”“目前没人知道规则是什么,”他说。

“Usually when [a foreign entity] signs a contract with an American company, it says who has the capability to turn this stuff on and off, and the circumstances under which they can turn it on and off,” Crowther says, questioning who has that authority over the services Ukraine relies upon. “Is it Starlink, which is private, or is it Starshield, which is an American government contract? Is it Musk? Is it Hegseth? Is it Trump?”“Nobody knows the rules right now,” he says.

奥古斯塔大学政治学教授兰斯·亨特告诉《时代周刊》,这场争端暴露了由三方行为体——特朗普政府、SpaceX 和乌克兰——参与其中,且它们的优先事项可能互不兼容所带来的潜在问题。

Lance Hunter, a professor of political science at Augusta University, tells TIME that this dispute exposes the potential issues of having three different actors—the Trump Administration, SpaceX, and Ukraine—with potentially incompatible priorities.

对 SpaceX 的依赖如何限制乌克兰的军事自主权 亨特表示,乌克兰正在发生的事情凸显了战争对数字技术日益增长的依赖。他指出,除了传统的“坦克、炸弹、飞机”,这还包括人工智能、无人机和导航干扰等因素。

How dependence on SpaceX limits Ukraine’s military autonomy Hunter says that what is unfolding in Ukraine underscores warfare’s growing dependence on digital technology. Beyond traditional “tanks, bombs, planes,” he says that includes factors like artificial intelligence, drones, and navigation jamming.

亨特说,对持续技术服务的依赖创造了一种不同于传统军购的关系。

Reliance on ongoing technology services creates a different relationship from a traditional arms purchase, Hunter says.

他以传统军购为例,即私营公司向政府出售一定数量的导弹或拦截器。

He points to traditional arms deals in which a private company sells a government a set amount of missiles or interceptors.

“比如说你购买了一件武器、一辆车辆或任何有助于冲突的物体:此时你拥有它的所有权。你对它拥有控制权,”亨特告诉《时代周刊》。

“Let's say you purchase a piece of weaponry or vehicle or any type of object that helps you in the conflict: You own it at that point. You have control over it,” Hunter tells TIME.

然而,乌克兰与 SpaceX 的关系却有所不同;购买技术并不保证作战主权。

The relationship between Ukraine and SpaceX, however, is different; purchasing the technology does not guarantee operational sovereignty.

“乌克兰拥有大量可与星盾和星链对接的终端,在允许他们按需使用这些终端方面,他们非常依赖 SpaceX,”亨特继续说道。“这不仅仅是购买技术时的一次性依赖;现在是持续性的。”他补充说,这使得该公司对冲突拥有比以往更大的“影响力和杠杆作用”。

“Ukraine has a lot of transmitters which interface with Starshield and Starlink, and they're very much dependent on SpaceX as far as allowing them to use those when they need to,” Hunter continues. “There's not just a one-time dependence buying the technology; it's continual now.”That gives the company more “influence and leverage” over conflicts than it has before, he adds.

这改变了乌克兰等国家必须思考的方式:它们愿意与谁合作,以及如何权衡潜在代价。

It shifts the way that countries like Ukraine need to think about who they are willing to work with and how they weigh the potential costs.

为何乌克兰难以轻易替代“星链”与“星盾”亨特表示,在理想情况下,乌克兰会实现技术供应商多元化,以降低对“星链”的依赖。

Why Ukraine cannot easily replace Starlink and Starshield In a perfect world, Hunter says, Ukraine would diversify its technology suppliers to decrease reliance on Starlink.

该国已在扩大国内武器生产,包括拦截无人机。但对于爱国者拦截导弹等关键防空武器,乌克兰仍依赖外国供应商。

The country has already been expanding its domestic weapons production, including interceptor drones. But it remains dependent on foreign suppliers for critical air-defense weapons like the U.S.-made Patriot interceptor missiles.

这种依赖使其易受短缺和延误之苦。10月26日,泽连斯基表示,乌克兰已等待近一个月,等待国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯批准为其爱国者和“国家先进地空导弹系统”(NASAMS)防空系统提供导弹。

That dependence has left it vulnerable to shortages and delays. On Oct. 26, Zelensky said Ukraine had been waiting nearly a month for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to approve supplies of missiles for its Patriot and NASAMS air-defense systems.

但复制卫星通信网络则是另一番挑战。亨特说,“星链”技术并非政府能轻易在国内复制,且全球极少有供应商能提供可比拟的能力。

But replicating satellite communications networks presents a different challenge. Starlink technology is not something a government can easily reproduce domestically, Hunter says, and few providers worldwide offer comparable capabilities.

他说:“‘星链’在速度、可用性、灵活性等方面,某种程度上垄断了这项技术。他们不可能只需拨动一下开关就能实现技术多元化。这需要大量时间、资源和精力,而且在欧洲,我们没有看到欧洲国家或私营公司拥有同等水平的技术。”他最后表示,当乌克兰试图分别与特朗普政府和马斯克协商关系时,该国陷入了“进退维谷”的境地。

“Starlink has a monopoly on that technology to a degree, as far as the speed, the availability, the flexibility,” he says. “It's not like they can just flip a switch and diversify that technology. It takes a lot of time. It takes a lot of resources. It takes a lot of effort, and also in Europe we don't see that same level of technology with some of the European countries and also with some of the private companies.”In the end, he says that Ukraine is stuck between “a rock and a hard place” as the country tries to negotiate its relationships with the Trump Administration and, separately, with Musk.

“乌克兰依赖这些机构的政治立场全部保持一致,”他谈到乌克兰时说。“突然间,你就某种程度上失去了自主权。”

“You're reliant on the politics of those bodies all matching up,” he says of Ukraine. “All of a sudden, you kind of lose that autonomy.”

“如果他们真的对抗美国政府或SpaceX,他们可能会获得更少的技术,并被切断得更彻底,”他补充道。“但如果他们完全不反抗,也不为自身利益争取,那么在施加杠杆作用方面,他们可能会处于更弱势的地位。”

乌克兰为何质疑马斯克的星链言论10月24日,马斯克在社交媒体发文称,SpaceX曾故意限制星链接入,因为乌克兰军队违反星链服务条款,将这一民用卫星网络用于进攻性无人机打击。

“If they really push back against the U.S. government or SpaceX, they have the potential of receiving less of the technology and being cut off to a greater extent,” he adds. “But if they don't really push at all and advocate for their interest as well, then they could be in a weaker position as far as having leverage exerted over them.” ## Why Ukraine disputes Musk’s Starlink claims In a social media post on Oct. 24, Musk said that SpaceX had restricted Starlink access deliberately because Ukraine's military violated Starlink's terms of service by using the civilian satellite network for offensive drone strikes.

“乌克兰军队违反星链服务条款,将其用于进攻性无人机打击杀人。该漏洞已于上周关闭,”马斯克在一条帖文中说。“利用星链这一民用商业服务进行进攻性无人机打击杀人向来不被允许,也不应被允许。”马斯克解释称,星链仍是“乌克兰防务的关键”,但不能用于进攻性军事行动。乌克兰官员随即反驳了马斯克的说法。

“Ukraine military violated Starlink terms of service and used it for offensive drone strikes to kill people. That loophole was closed last week,” Musk said in one post. “Using Starlink, a civilian commercial service, for offensive drone strikes to kill people has never been allowed, nor should it be.”Musk explained that Starlink continues to be “critical to the defense of Ukraine,” but that it could not be used for offensive military operations. Ukrainian officials promptly disputed Musk’s claims.

国防技术顾问谢尔盖·别斯克列斯特诺夫在Telegram发文称,现有的操作和速度限制使得军方“在物理上不可能”利用星链实施中程或纵深进攻打击。

Defense technology adviser Serhii Beskrestnov wrote in a Telegram post that operational and speed restrictions are in place that make it “physically impossible” for the military to use Starlink for medium- or deep-range offensive strikes.

“马斯克不了解星链在乌克兰的操作限制,这非常奇怪,”他写道。“星链在俄罗斯领土上无法运行。”

“It is very strange that Elon Musk is unaware of the operational limitations of Starlink in Ukraine,” he wrote. “Starlink does not function over the territory of Russia.”

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