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星链速度变慢、乌克兰无人机停摆:现代战争背后的私营力量Starlink slowed, Ukraine’s drones stalled: The private power behind a modern war

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10月14日乌克兰军队使用的卫星通信突然中断,暴露出现代战争中日益增长的一个脆弱性:军事行动越来越依赖于私人运营的技术,而这些技术的可用性可能会在毫无预警的情况下受到限制。

The sudden disruption of satellite communications used by Ukrainian forces on October 14 has exposed a growing vulnerability in modern warfare: Military operations increasingly depend on privately operated technology whose availability can be restricted without warning.

埃隆·马斯克旗下的SpaceX公司所提供的服务受到的限制,中断了乌克兰的无人机任务,其中包括旨在反击俄罗斯袭击的行动。这一事件引发了一场关于谁授权实施限制的争端,并再次引发了人们对商业卫星供应商能够对军事行动施加何种影响的质疑。

The limitations imposed on services provided by Elon Musk's SpaceX interrupted Ukrainian drone missions, including operations intended to counter Russian attacks. The incident has triggered a dispute over who authorized the restrictions and renewed questions about the influence commercial satellite providers can exert over military operations.

其影响不仅限于乌克兰,还波及中东。在那里,“星链”技术在美军针对伊朗的军事行动中发挥了作用,同时也为平民提供了一条规避政府强加的网络限制的途径。

The implications extend beyond Ukraine to the Middle East, where Starlink technology has played a role in US military operations against Iran while also providing civilians with a way to circumvent government-imposed internet restrictions.

乌克兰官员报告称,当卫星终端安装在时速超过大约160公里(100英里)的移动设备上时,便无法维持稳定的连接。一些军事单位在更低的速度下也遇到了中断情况,这迫使他们取消或中断了无人机任务.乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基警告称,这些限制削弱了乌克兰拦截速度更快的俄罗斯无人机的能力。尽管随后部分服务得以恢复,但在基辅寻求解决方案的同时,针对高速运转的限制依然存在。

Ukrainian officials reported that satellite terminals had stopped maintaining reliable connections when mounted on equipment traveling faster than approximately 160 kilometers per hour (100 mph). Some military units experienced disruptions at lower speeds, forcing them to cancel or interrupt drone missions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the restrictions had impaired Ukraine's ability to intercept faster Russian drones. Although some services were subsequently restored, limitations on high-speed operations remained in place as Kyiv sought a resolution.

10月22日,《华尔街日报》报道称,总统唐纳德·特朗普在前一天给马斯克打电话,要求他解除限制。美国和乌克兰官员表示,该系统周四运行得更为正常,不过一些乌克兰官员报告称,尚未恢复全部功能。

On October 22, The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump had called Musk a day earlier and asked him to lift the restrictions. US and Ukrainian officials said the system was operating more normally on Thursday, although some Ukrainian officials reported that full functionality had not been restored.

乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基于2026年10月8日在乌克兰切尔尼戈夫地区向媒体发表讲话。(图片来源:路透社/瓦连京·奥吉连科/资料图片)Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the media in the Chernihiv region, Ukraine, October 8, 2026. (credit: REUTERS/VALENTYN OGIRENKO/FILE PHOTO)

此次中断正值华盛顿与基辅因乌克兰打击俄罗斯石油设施而关系紧张加剧之际。

The disruption came during heightened tensions between Washington and Kyiv over Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil facilities.

然而,这些分歧是否影响了限制措施尚未得到证实。关于责任归属的问题产生了相互矛盾的说法。

However, whether those disagreements influenced the restrictions has not been established. The question of responsibility has produced conflicting accounts.

10月15日,路透社援引两名美国官员和一名知情的西方官员报道称,减缓军用卫星服务的命令源自白宫内部。

On October 15, Reuters reported, citing two American officials and a Western official familiar with the matter, that the order to slow the military satellite service originated inside the White House.

10月20日,《华尔街日报》援引美国官员和知情人士报道称,马斯克曾亲自下令减缓服务。

On October 20, The Wall Street Journal reported that Musk had personally ordered the slowdown, citing US officials and people familiar with the decision.

特朗普总统否认参与了最初的限制。国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥随后表示,关于SpaceX服务速度和允许用途的决定,由商业安排管辖,而非白宫指令。

President Trump denied involvement in the original restrictions. Secretary of State Marco Rubio subsequently said that decisions about the speed and permitted use of SpaceX services were governed by commercial arrangements rather than White House directives.

鲁比奥还表示,乌克兰无法使用“星盾”,即SpaceX面向军事用途的卫星服务,这与乌克兰官员和美国参议员称该服务曾受限的说法相矛盾。

Rubio also said Ukraine did not have access to Starshield, SpaceX's military-oriented satellite service, contradicting Ukrainian officials and US senators who said the service had been restricted.

相互矛盾的解释引起了国会的关注。10月15日,一个两党参议员小组呼吁五角大楼监察长就服务中断事件展开调查。

The conflicting explanations have drawn scrutiny from Congress. On October 15, a bipartisan group of senators called for a Pentagon inspector general investigation into the disruptions.

10月19日,四名民主党参议员随后发出信函,要求太空探索技术公司(SpaceX)澄清其在限制乌克兰使用卫星服务一事中所扮演的角色。

Four Democratic senators followed on October 19 with a letter demanding that SpaceX clarify its role in restricting Ukraine's access to satellite services.

除了眼前的政治争端之外,这一事件还暴露出围绕由外部供应商控制的基础设施构建军事能力所带来的风险。乌克兰过度依赖星链(Starlink)技术。

Beyond the immediate political dispute, the episode has exposed the risks of building military capabilities around infrastructure controlled by an outside provider. Ukraine is over-reliant on Starlink technologyPatrick Bolder, a strategic adviser at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies who specializes in European defense, NATO, and military space operations, told The Media Line that Ukraine's reliance on Starlink has grown far beyond what its developers originally envisioned.“Starlink wasn't designed for military operations because it was designed for civil use,” Bolder said.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于2026年7月8日在土耳其安卡拉的贝斯特佩总统府,在北约领导人峰会期间与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基举行双边会晤。(图片来源:乔纳森·恩斯特/路透社)US President Donald Trump holds a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky alongside the NATO leaders summit at the Bestepe Presidential Compound, in Ankara, Turkey, July 8, 2026. (credit: JONATHAN ERNST/REUTERS)

海牙战略研究中心(Hague Centre for Strategic Studies)战略顾问帕特里克·博尔德(Patrick Bolder)对《媒体热线》(The Media Line)表示,乌克兰对星链的依赖已经远远超出了其开发者的最初设想。博尔德专门研究欧洲防务、北约和军事太空行动。

博尔德说:“星链不是为军事行动设计的,因为它是为民用设计的。”

Nevertheless, the network has become integral to Ukrainian military operations since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

尽管如此,自2002年2月俄罗斯发动全面入侵以来,该网络已经成为乌克兰军事行动不可或缺的一部分。

Q咨询公司(Q Advisory)创始人约翰·金(John King)描述了这项技术对军事规划人员的吸引力。

金说:“星链已成为军事优势的主要来源,因为它在常规通信受损或无法使用时,将人员、传感器和指挥官连接起来。其低地球轨道网络提供宽带,且延迟相对较小。其战略价值在于信息在观察威胁者与负责应对者之间流动的速度。”

John King, founder of Q Advisory, described the technology's appeal to military planners.“Starlink has become a major source of military advantage because it connects people, sensors and commanders when conventional communications are damaged or unavailable. Its low Earth orbit network provides broadband with relatively little delay. The strategic value is the speed with which information can move between those who observe a threat and those responsible for responding.”

对于乌克兰军队来说,卫星互联网已经成为一个互联指挥系统的一部分,而不仅仅是一种备用通信手段。

For Ukrainian forces, satellite internet has become part of an interconnected command system rather than simply a backup means of communication.

金在一次军事行动中阐释了这意味着什么。“失去连接可能同时中断多项活动:接收视频、共享预警、协调部队或控制连网平台。”10月的事件也引发了人们对两项SpaceX服务区别的关注,这两项服务的名称有时被混用。谁控制“星盾”系统——马斯克还是美国政府?

King illustrated what that means during a military operation.“Losing a connection can interrupt several activities at once: receiving video, sharing a warning, coordinating units or controlling a connected platform.”The October incident also brought attention to the distinction between two SpaceX services whose names have sometimes been used interchangeably. Who controls Starshield systems - Musk or the US government?

“星链”是SpaceX的商业卫星宽带服务,最初为民用和商业客户开发。“星盾”基于“星链”技术构建,旨在用于政府和国家安全应用,包括安全通信、地球观测和专用卫星载荷。

Starlink is SpaceX's commercial satellite broadband service, originally developed for civilian and business customers. Starshield, which builds on Starlink technology, is designed for government and national security applications, including secure communications, Earth observation, and specialized satellite payloads.

尽管这两个系统共享技术基础,但它们不一定提供完全相同的能力,也不一定在相同的合同安排下运行。

Although the systems share technological foundations, they do not necessarily provide identical capabilities or operate under the same contractual arrangements.

金表示,在解读乌克兰部队损失了什么的说法时,这一区别很重要。“因此,乌克兰的通信服务不应与‘星盾’名称相关的所有情报能力混为一谈。在网络上传输情报,不同于收集情报。”

King said the distinction is important when interpreting claims about what Ukrainian forces have lost.“Ukraine's communications service should therefore not be confused with every intelligence capability associated with the Starshield name. Carrying intelligence over a network is different from collecting that intelligence.”

马斯克辩称“星盾”系统处于美国政府控制之下,而鲁比奥则将商业服务限制的决策描述为SpaceX的事务。与此同时,乌克兰官员报告称,他们认定为“星盾”的服务出现了中断。关于技术、合同和操作权限的精确划分仍存争议。

Musk has argued that Starshield systems fall under US government control, while Rubio has described decisions about commercial service restrictions as matters for SpaceX. Ukrainian officials, meanwhile, have reported disruptions affecting services they identify as Starshield. The precise division of technical, contractual, and operational authority remains disputed.

对博尔德而言,这一局势引发了对华盛顿对乌克兰政策的更广泛担忧。

For Bolder, the situation raises broader concerns about Washington's approach to Ukraine.

他辩称,限制军事援助和通信能力可能会对基辅施加更大压力,迫使其接受与俄罗斯谈判中的不利条件。

He argued that restricting military assistance and communications capabilities could increase pressure on Kyiv to accept unfavorable terms in negotiations with Russia.

金对于从此次中断中得出更广泛的战略结论则更为谨慎。“限制乌克兰的连接可能会削弱乌克兰协调行动和防御攻击的能力,从而对莫斯科有利。这种好处的程度取决于受影响的服务、持续时间和备份的可用性。但这并不意味着失去一个网络就会自动决定战争的结果。合理的结论是,依赖性会产生筹码和额外的脆弱性,即使这种中断是暂时的。”

King was more cautious about drawing broader strategic conclusions from the disruption.“A restriction on Ukrainian connectivity can benefit Moscow by weakening Ukraine's ability to coordinate operations and defend against attacks. The scale of that benefit depends on the affected services, duration, and availability of backups. It does not follow that losing one network automatically determines the outcome of the war. The sound conclusion is that dependence creates leverage and additional vulnerability, even when disruption is temporary.”

关于星链在中东被不当使用的指控类似的问题也出现在中东,在涉及美国、以色列和伊朗的战争期间,星链技术在那里既用于军事目的,也用于民用目的。

Accusations that Starlink has been improperly used in the Middle EastSimilar questions have emerged in the Middle East, where Starlink technology has served both military and civilian purposes during the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.

今年5月,《路透社》报道称,针对伊朗行动的美军“LUCAS”单向攻击无人机使用了与星链相关的连接,这引发了 SpaceX 与五角大楼之间关于服务定价的分歧。

In May, Reuters reported that American LUCAS one-way attack drones operating against Iran had used Starlink-related connectivity, prompting disagreements between SpaceX and the Pentagon over service pricing.

据该报道称,SpaceX 试图将每个终端的每月连接费用从约5,000美元提高到2万5,000美元,其理由是这些无人机使用的是与其价格更高的航空层级相当的服务。《路透社》报道称,五角大楼官员对拟议的定价表示反对,但最终同意支付更高的费用。

According to the report, SpaceX sought to increase the monthly connectivity fee from approximately $5,000 to $25,000 per terminal, arguing that the drones were using a service comparable to its more expensive aviation tier. Pentagon officials objected to the proposed pricing but ultimately agreed to the higher fees, Reuters reported.

马斯克对《路透社》的报道提出了异议,称民用星链服务被不当用于军事目的。

Musk disputed the Reuters report, saying that civilian Starlink services had been improperly used for military purposes.

五角大楼也对该报告提出质疑,尽管双方均未提供详细证据来反驳其核心发现。这一分歧凸显了当军事能力依赖于受合同条款和定价安排约束的商业技术时,可能出现的复杂情况。

The Pentagon also challenged the report, although neither provided detailed evidence contradicting its central findings. The disagreement highlighted the complications that can arise when military capabilities depend on commercial technologies governed by contractual terms and pricing arrangements.

在伊朗境内,星链发挥了不同的作用。伊朗当局在政治动荡期间曾多次限制互联网接入,使卫星连接成为部分居民与外界联系的为数不多的途径之一。当局的回应是没收未经授权的终端,并试图干扰卫星连接。10月,一名伊朗高级官员声称,政府已在今年早些时候的抗议活动中成功使星链终端瘫痪。这些努力的程度尚未得到独立证实。

Starlink helps Iranian dissidents communicate during imposed blackoutsIn Iran itself, Starlink has played a different role. Iranian authorities have repeatedly restricted internet access during periods of political unrest, leaving satellite connections among the limited means available to some residents seeking to communicate with the outside world. The authorities have responded by confiscating unauthorized terminals and attempting to disrupt satellite connections. In October, a senior Iranian official claimed that the government had successfully disabled Starlink terminals during protests earlier in the year. The extent of those efforts has not been independently established.

金警告说,不要根据星链可供伊朗平民使用的证据,得出关于其军事用途的结论。“单独来看,卫星互联网帮助一些伊朗人在国家实施的断网期间进行通信,而当局则没收终端并实施干扰。平民接入与军事连通性必须分开评估;其中一方的证据不能确立特定的目标定位或情报任务。”

King cautioned against drawing conclusions about the military uses of Starlink from evidence of its availability to Iranian civilians.“Separately, satellite internet has helped some Iranians communicate during state-imposed blackouts, while authorities have confiscated terminals and used jamming. Civilian access and military connectivity must be assessed separately; evidence of one does not establish a particular targeting or intelligence mission.”

博尔德还讨论了向伊朗反对派团体提供星链终端的提议。他表示,此类举措可能会将商业供应商的影响力延伸至通信行业之外。“他们应该为此负责吗?难道不应该对此制定一些规则吗?”

Bolder also discussed proposals to supply Starlink terminals to Iranian opposition groups. Such initiatives, he suggested, could extend a commercial provider's influence well beyond the communications industry.“Should they be responsible for such a thing? Shouldn't there be some rules on this? I wonder.”

对于欧洲国家而言,乌克兰的经历为一场关于依赖美国军事和技术能力的长期争论增添了紧迫性。

European governments, defense systems rely on US systemsFor European countries, Ukraine's experience has added urgency to a longstanding debate about dependence on American military and technological capabilities.

其他卫星通信服务商正在为政府和国防客户开发服务,但在武装冲突期间,没有简单直接的方法可以由一个网络替代另一个网络。

Other satellite communications providers are developing services for government and defense customers, but there is no straightforward way to substitute one network for another in the middle of an armed conflict.

金表示,这个问题比缺乏竞争更为具体。“我会将SpaceX的地位描述为运营依赖的高度集中,而不是对所有军事卫星通信已被证实的垄断。其他供应商是存在的。困难在于取代网络容量、合适终端以及与现有行动整合的特定组合。”

King said the problem is more specific than a lack of competition.“I would describe SpaceX's position as an acute concentration of operational dependence, rather than a proven monopoly over all military satellite communications. Other providers exist. The difficulty is replacing the particular combination of network capacity, suitable terminals and integration into existing operations.”

博尔德则将重点放在欧洲与美国关系带来的政治后果上。“我们信任美国,我们与美国做了很多生意,我们依赖美国,而现在你看到信任已经消失,但依赖依然存在,我们把自己逼入了一个可能受到勒索的境地,”他警告称。

Bolder focused on the political consequences of Europe's relationship with the United States.“We trusted the US, and we did a lot of business with the US, and we depended on the US, and now you see that the trust is gone but the dependency is still there and we've maneuvered ourselves in a position where we can be blackmailed,” he warned.

欧洲各国政府已开始通过欧盟计划中的安全卫星通信星座IRIS²等项目寻求更大的独立性。

European governments have begun pursuing greater independence through programs such as IRIS², the European Union's planned secure satellite communications constellation.

根据8月份宣布的一项协议,该项目将扩展至348颗卫星,初步发射计划于2029年进行,此后逐步推出服务。

Under an agreement announced in August, the project will expand to 348 satellites, with initial launches planned for 2029 and services introduced progressively thereafter.

该星座旨在为欧洲各国政府、国防部队和紧急服务部门提供安全的通信。然而,其开发无法立即取代乌克兰目前所需的能力。

The constellation is intended to provide secure communications for European governments, defense forces, and emergency services. However, its development cannot immediately replace the capabilities Ukraine currently needs.

博尔德认为,欧洲必须实现其战略依赖的多样化,即使这样做需要巨额投资。

Bolder argued that Europe must diversify its strategic dependencies, even if doing so requires substantial investment.

军方应做好应对通信网络故障的准备。金则更强调在现有安排中构建韧性。

Militaries should be prepared for communications network failures King placed greater emphasis on building resilience into existing arrangements.

他说,各国政府应当制定明确的规则,以确定谁可以授权对服务进行更改、如何处理紧急限制,以及供应商在军事行动期间维持连通性负有哪些义务。

Governments, he said, should establish clear rules determining who may authorize changes to services, how emergency restrictions are handled, and what obligations providers have to maintain connectivity during military operations.

还应当提供并定期测试独立的通信系统,以便在主网络不可用时,军事行动仍能继续。

Independent communications systems should also be available and regularly tested so that military operations can continue if a primary network becomes unavailable.

这场辩论反映了军事规划中更广泛的转变。北约于2019年将太空确认为一个作战领域,承认了卫星系统对于通信、情报、监视和军事协调的重要性。

The debate reflects a broader shift in military planning. NATO recognized space as an operational domain in 2019, acknowledging the importance of satellite systems for communications, intelligence, surveillance, and military coordination.

乌克兰的经历表明,当支持先进军事技术的通信基础设施受到另一方的限制时,仅拥有先进的军事技术是不够的。

Ukraine's experience has demonstrated that possessing advanced military technology is not enough when the communications infrastructure supporting it can be restricted by another party.

金表示,围绕“星链”的争议应该促使各国政府重新审视他们如何衡量战备状态。

“对于未来的冲突,力量的衡量标准将是一支部队在其首选网络不可用时,是否仍能继续做出决策。‘星链’展示了商业创新的非凡价值。各国政府现在需要以可靠的协议、切实可行的替代方案以及负责任的公共决策来与这种创新相匹配。”

King said the disputes surrounding Starlink should prompt governments to reconsider how they measure military readiness.“For future conflicts, the measure of strength will be whether a force can keep making decisions when its preferred network becomes unavailable. Starlink has shown the extraordinary value of commercial innovation. Governments now need to match that innovation with dependable agreements, practical alternatives, and accountable public decisions.”

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