针对北约成员国保加利亚和罗马尼亚海域内多艘货船发生的致命袭击事件，北约紧急召开了关于黑海安全问题的会议。然而，任何派遣北约舰艇的行动都取决于土耳其是否改变其坚决拒绝让北约舰艇进入黑海的立场。
A wave of deadly attacks on cargo ships in the waters of NATO members Bulgaria and Romania has jolted the alliance into calling an emergency meeting on Black Sea security. Yet any move to send NATO ships hinges on Turkey reversing its steadfast refusal to allow warships into the Black Sea.
周四，两艘化学货轮在罗马尼亚港口附近遭到无人机袭击。此前一周内，保加利亚海域也发生了类似袭击事件，已有20多名船员遇难或失踪。
Thursday saw two chemical tankers struck by drones close to a Romanian port. It follows two similar attacks in Bulgarian waters in the past week. More than 20 sailors have been killed or remain missing.
“战争已经全面蔓延到了黑海地区，”总部位于伊斯坦布尔的Bosphorus Observer咨询公司的海事分析师Yoruk Isik表示，“与战争爆发初期相比，无人机技术的发展极大地扰乱了海上交通秩序。”Isik认为，这些最新袭击事件进一步凸显了俄罗斯与乌克兰之间冲突的加剧。“俄罗斯和乌克兰的港口一直是主要攻击目标，但现在就连北约成员国控制的海域（如保加利亚和罗马尼亚海域）也受到了袭击。”
“The war has come in full force to the Black Sea now,” said Yoruk Isik, a maritime analyst who runs the Istanbul-based Bosphorus Observer consultancy. “With the change in technology compared to the beginning of the war, drones really disrupted maritime traffic.”According to Isik, the latest attacks underscore the growing spread of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. “Russian ports and Ukrainian ports are heavily targeted, but now even in NATO waters ships are getting hit, in Bulgarian waters, Romanian waters.
“如今，已经没有任何地方是安全的了，”Isik强调道。最新袭击事件的目标是位于乌克兰重要航运路线上的船只，这使俄罗斯成为北约怀疑的主要对象——因为俄罗斯正在加紧对乌克兰贸易的打击。
“We are at a point where there is no safe place.”The latest strikes targeted vessels along a key Ukrainian shipping route, casting Russia as NATO’s prime suspect as Moscow intensifies its assault on Ukrainian trade.
在周四与保加利亚和罗马尼亚（均为北约成员国）领导人会面后，北约秘书长马克·鲁特表示，北约将“继续与黑海地区的盟友密切合作，并根据需要调整自身的威慑和防御策略”。
After meeting on Thursday with the leaders of Bulgaria and Romania, both NATO members, Secretary-General Mark Rutte said the military alliance would “continue to work closely with our allies in the Black Sea, adjusting our deterrence and defence posture as needed”.
罗马尼亚总统尼库索尔·丹表示，北约将于下周召开危机会议讨论这一局势。
Romanian President Nicușor Dan said NATO would hold a crisis meeting next week to discuss the situation.
作为黑海地区的“守门人”，北约可以考虑部署防空系统来保护保加利亚和罗马尼亚的海域安全。不过，任何海军舰艇的部署都取决于北约成员国土耳其的配合——根据1936年《蒙特勒公约》，土耳其通过土耳其海峡控制着黑海的进出通道。
Gatekeeper to the Black Sea NATO could deploy air defence systems against drones to protect Bulgarian and Romanian waters. But any deployment of naval ships will depend on NATO member Turkey, which controls access to the Black Sea through the Turkish Straits under a long-standing international treaty, the 1936 Montreux Convention.
自2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，安卡拉一直阻止俄罗斯和乌克兰军舰，以及不属于黑海沿岸国的北约成员国军舰进入，主张通过外交手段解决。
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ankara has blocked entry of Russian and Ukrainian warships or military vessels belonging to NATO members without a Black Sea coast, arguing for a diplomatic solution.
近几周，土耳其政府一直试图就商业航运达成停火协议，但未成功。伊西克表示，这一失败加上最近袭击事件的升级，越来越让人质疑安卡拉仅依赖外交的做法。
In recent weeks the Turkish government has sought to broker a ceasefire on commercial shipping, without success. Isik claims that failure, coupled with the latest escalation in attacks, is increasingly calling into question Ankara’s reliance on diplomacy alone.
“要么他们将取得突破，克里姆林宫将降级局势，要么安卡拉将接受现实，即这里需要一支更具可信度的武力——更大的舰船必须进来，”这位分析师说。
“Either they’re going to have a breakthrough and the Kremlin is going to de-escalate, or Ankara is going to accept the reality that there needs to be a more credible force here – bigger vessels have to come,” the analyst said.
他指出，罗马尼亚和保加利亚的海军无法单独处理此类行动，其冷战时期的舰船即将服役期满。
He pointed out that the navies of Romania and Bulgaria are not equipped to handle such an operation alone, with Cold War-era ships nearing the end of their lifespan.
“因此，土耳其的参与对于北约在黑海的任何成功计划都至关重要。”俄罗斯的影响力 尽管土耳其拥有的货船在最近几周遭到袭击，且土耳其高度依赖黑海贸易，但安迦拉迄今仍将其强大的海军置于一旁。
“So Turkey's engagement is key to any successful NATO planning in the Black Sea.”Russian leverage Despite Turkish-owned cargo ships coming under attack in recent weeks, and Turkey’s deep reliance on Black Sea trade, Ankara has so far kept its powerful navy on the sidelines.
安卡拉中东技术大学国际关系专家侯赛因·巴格奇表示，土耳其担心冲突升级，并将谨慎对待允许北约舰船进入黑海。
International relations expert Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University, says Turkey fears an escalation in the conflict and will be wary of allowing NATO ships into the Black Sea.
“我不认为政府敢这么做，”巴格奇说。“可能政府认为这是将土耳其拖入战争的挑衅……土耳其害怕在黑海与俄罗斯发生冲突，这在某种程度上是土耳其心理上的一种创伤。”他还表示，莫斯科对安卡拉也拥有强大的影响力。
“I do not think the government would dare,” said Bagci. “Probably the government considers this a provocation to drag Turkey into the war... Turkey is afraid of getting involved in the Black Sea against Russia, this is somehow a trauma in the Turkish mind.”Moscow also retains powerful leverage over Ankara, he suggested.
俄罗斯的国家核能公司罗萨托姆（Rosatom）即将在土耳其南部的阿库尤（Akkuyu）完成一座耗资数十亿美元的核电站的建设。安卡拉方面认为，这座核电站对于减少土耳其对进口能源的依赖至关重要。巴吉奇（Bagci）表示：“在俄罗斯完成核电站建设的同时，现在反对俄罗斯是毫无道理的。”
Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom is about to complete a multi-billion-dollar nuclear power station in Akkuyu, southern Turkey. Ankara sees it as vital to the drive to reduce its heavy dependence on imported energy. “It is illogical to oppose Russia now while you let the Russians complete the nuclear plant,” said Bagci.
埃尔多安暗示土耳其可能与俄罗斯建立更紧密的核能合作关系，这令土耳其的盟友感到不安。安卡拉还意识到：如果允许北约舰艇进入该海域却禁止俄罗斯军舰通行，可能会激怒莫斯科，从而引发俄罗斯对土耳其作为黑海“门户国”地位的挑战。
Erdogan hints at larger nuclear partnership with Russia, unsettling Turkey's allies Ankara also knows that letting NATO vessels in while barring Russian warships could provoke Moscow into contesting Turkey’s prized status as the gatekeeper to the Black Sea.
然而，研究《蒙特勒公约》的土耳其退休外交官塞利姆·库纳尔普（Selim Kuneralp）警告称，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京很可能早已将土耳其对黑海通道的控制权视为自己的目标。库纳尔普指出：“这很可能影响了俄罗斯的军事行动能力；我怀疑普京对当前局势非常不满。因此，如果俄罗斯在战争中获胜，很有可能会主动提出要求：‘这种情况是不可接受的，我们希望从现在起无论是否发生战争，都能自由通行军舰’。”作为《蒙特勒公约》的签署国，俄罗斯有权每五年要求修订该公约。
However, retired Turkish diplomat Selim Kuneralp, an expert on the Montreux Convention, warns Turkey’s control over Black Sea access is likely already in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s sights. “This has probably had an impact on Russia’s ability to conduct the war, and I doubt that Putin is very happy with the situation,” said Kuneralp. “So if he were to win the war, there is a very strong risk that he will take the initiative of saying: ‘this is unacceptable and we want to have free passage of warships from now on, regardless of whether there is a war’.”As a signatory, Moscow has the right to call for a revision of the Montreux Convention every five years.
几个世纪以来，俄罗斯曾多次与当时的奥斯曼帝国为控制土耳其海峡而发生战争。冷战初期，就连约瑟夫·斯大林也曾试图争夺这一控制权，但美国介入并阻止了他的计划。
For centuries, Russia fought repeated wars with the then Ottoman Empire for control of the Turkish Straits. In the early years of the Cold War, even Joseph Stalin tried his hand, but the United States intervened and thwarted him.
如今，安卡拉必须在俄罗斯与北约盟友之间保持微妙的平衡，以避免历史上的敌对关系再次爆发。
Now Ankara walks a tightrope between Moscow and its NATO partners to avoid a resurrection of those historical rivalries.