Gene Marks 总体而言，特朗普的经济情绪较差，但小企业似乎相当有信心。根据此处几项调查，美国有3400万家小企业。它们雇佣了全国约一半的劳动力，并创造了全国约一半的GDP。它们是一个重要的投票群体。因此，随着我们进入11月的中期选举，他们对经济的感受如何？总体而言，唐纳德·特朗普的经济情绪较差，但小企业——尽管是一个难以调查的多样化群体——似乎相当有信心。一些最近发布的调查和报告有助于了解他们的情绪。信心总体保持稳定。
Gene Marks Overall, economic sentiment for Trump is poor, but small businesses seem fairly confident, according to several surveys here are 34m small businesses in the United States. They employ approximately half of the country’s workers and generate about half of the country’s GDP. They’re an important voting block. So how are they feeling about the economy as we head into November’s midterm elections? Overall, economic sentiment for Donald Trump is poor but small business – admittedly a diverse demographic that’s hard to poll – seems fairly confident. A number of recently published surveys and reports can help understand their mood. Confidence is generally stable.
本周，全美独立企业联合会表示，其小企业乐观指数降至长期平均水平略下，而不确定性略有上升。劳动力质量是26%业主的首要担忧，通胀则是20%业主的担忧。扩张计划有所削弱，尽管仍有17%的业主计划在未来三个月内增加就业岗位。
This week, the National Federation of Independent Businesses said that its Small Business Optimism Index fell to just below its long-term average, while uncertainty rose slightly. Labor quality was the top concern for 26% of owners and inflation for 20%. Expansion plans weakened, though 17% still plan to add jobs during the next three months.
然而，根据最近发布的Justworks/美国商会小企业指数，小企业信心在第三季度显著改善。被调查的750家小企业中，有72%表示他们对当前的现金流感到满意，但只有27%认为美国经济状况良好。通胀仍然是最大的问题，被54%的业主提及。雇佣情况既不强劲也不疲软。
However, small-business confidence improved significantly in the third quarter, according to the recently published Justworks/US Chamber Small Business Index Some 72% of the 750 small businesses surveyed say they are comfortable with their current cash flow, but only 27% believe the US economy is in good health. Inflation remains the biggest problem, cited by 54% of owners. Hiring is not strong, but not weak either.
HR平台Gusto估计，小企业在9月份新增了28,000个岗位，这是自1月份出现下降以来连续第八个月实现就业增长。根据该公司的数据，招聘速度较8月份修正后的18,500个岗位增长有所加快，增长在各行业、地区和企业规模中普遍出现，其中医疗保健和社会援助是表现最强劲的行业之一。特别值得注意的是，一些规模最小的雇主仍在参与扩张，而不是就业增长仅集中在大型企业中。
HR platform Gusto estimated that small businesses added 28,000 jobs in September, making it the eighth consecutive month of employment gains following a decline in January. According to the company’s data, hiring accelerated from August’s revised gain of 18,500 jobs and growth was broad across industries, regions and company sizes, with healthcare and social assistance among the strongest sectors. Particularly notable is that some of the smallest employers continue to participate in the expansion, rather than job growth being concentrated solely among larger companies.
在其最新发布的《小企业就业观察》报告中，另一家大型人力资源和薪资处理服务公司Paychex（也是我公司的客户）表示，9月份的招聘基本持平于其2026年迄今为止的平均水平，员工人数少于50人的企业整体就业情况呈“稳定”。
In its latest Small Business Employment Watch report, Paychex, another large HR and payroll processing service (and a client of my company), said that hiring in September essentially matched its 2026 year-to-date average with overall employment among companies with fewer than 50 employees appearing “stable”.
该国最大的人力资源和薪资处理服务公司ADP报告称，美国私营企业在9月份新增了90,000个岗位，招聘自5月以来首次出现加速，此前三个月增长放缓。教育和医疗保健以及休闲和酒店业领涨，而金融活动和专业及商业服务则较为疲软。对小企业而言，值得注意的是，雇佣1至19名员工的企业新增了18,000个岗位。根据ADP的数据，私营部门雇主尚未转入衰退模式，尽管招聘较之前时期有所放缓，但企业仍在继续增加员工。
the country’s largest HR and payroll processing service, reported that US private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, with hiring accelerating for the first time since May following three months of slowing growth. Education and healthcare and leisure and hospitality led the gains, while financial activities and professional and business services were weaker. Importantly for small businesses, establishments employing one to 19 workers added 18,000 jobs. According to ADP, private-sector employers have not shifted into recession mode and although hiring has cooled from earlier periods, businesses are still adding employees.
Intuit则描绘出略有不同的就业形势。其基于从数百万QuickBooks用户处收集数据的Intuit QuickBooks小企业指数显示，员工人数在1至9人之间的美国企业在9月份就业人数下降了7,000个岗位，且就业在大多数行业和地区出现下降。收入仍然保持稳固。
Intuit painted a slightly different jobs picture. Its Intuit QuickBooks Small Business Index which is based on data it gathers from its millions of QuickBooks customers, found that employment at US businesses with one to nine employees fell by 7,000 jobs in September and that jobs declined across most sectors and regions. Revenues remain solid.
Intuit 的 QuickBooks 数据显示，上月收入大幅增长，通胀调整后的平均月收入增长了 1.68%，且 12 个行业中有 11 个、所有地区以及 20 个州中的 19 个都出现了增长。
Intuit’s QuickBooks data shows that revenues moved sharply up this past month as inflation-adjusted average monthly revenue increased 1.68% and growth occurring in 11 of 12 industries, every region and 19 of 20 states.
支付处理服务公司 Fiserv 表示，其 9 月数据显示美国小企业的销售有所改善。然而，该公司报告称，消费者行为仍然保持选择性，即使客户在购物时花费更多，客流量也有所下降。经济增长在第三季度持续。
Fiserv a payment-processing service, said that its September data showed improving sales among US small businesses. However, the company reports that consumer behavior remains selective and that traffic has been weaker even as customers spend more when they do shop. Economic growth continued in the third quarter.
总体而言，美国制造业在 9 月仍牢固地处于扩张区间。供应管理协会（ISM）的制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）在经历多年收缩后，已连续九个月增长。尽管价格上涨，新订单、生产和就业均保持扩张态势，订单积压也有所增加。一如既往，ISM 报告称服务业也出现了又一个月的扩张（已连续 27 个月），且新订单仍然“特别强劲”。
Overall, US manufacturing remained firmly in expansion territory in September. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index marked its ninth consecutive month of growth after years of contraction. Despite rising prices, new orders, production and employment all remained expansionary and order backlogs increased. As usual, the ISM reported yet another month of expansion in the service sector (it’s been 27 consecutive months) with new orders remaining “particularly strong”.
《华尔街日报》及其他媒体近日报道称，第一季度年化增长率被上调至 2.5%，此前为 2.1%；第二季度增长率被上调至 2.2%，此前为 1.5%。其编辑认为，这表明“美国经济的表现远好于悲观头条所暗示的情况”。费城在企业创建方面落后。
The Wall Street Journal and other media sources reported recently that first-quarter annualized growth was revised to 2.5% from 2.1%, and second-quarter growth was increased to 2.2% from 1.5%, which, its editors argued shows that the “US economy is performing considerably better than pessimistic headlines imply”. Philadelphia lags in business creation.
我的业务位于费城，这是一个摇摆州中偏向民主党的地区。我的客户到目前为止今年似乎大多经营得不错，但和全国大多数小企业一样，他们仍在努力应对更高的成本和紧张的劳动力市场。
My business is based in Philadelphia, a heavily Democratic area in a swing state. My clients appear to mostly be doing well so far this year but, like most small businesses around the country, continue to struggle navigating higher costs and a tight labor market.
这种轶事证据在一定程度上得到了WSFS银行5月份调查的支持，该调查发现“尽管存在通胀和经济不确定性，费城地区企业的信心出乎意料地强劲”。在这项研究中，92%的所有者和企业决策者表示他们的公司正在达到或超出预期，而66%预计在未来一年内实现增长。
This anecdotal evidence is somewhat supported by a May survey by WSFS Bank that found “surprisingly strong confidence among Philadelphia-area businesses” despite inflation and economic uncertainty. In that study, 92% of owners and business decision-makers say their companies are meeting or exceeding expectations, while 66% anticipate growth during the next year.
然而，费城也有其自身独特的问题，特别是人均新增小企业数量低于其他大城市。皮尤研究中心的一项最新研究发现，2012年至2022年间，费城黑人、西班牙裔和女性拥有的小企业数量增加了39%，显示出有意义的创业增长，但包括融资渠道受限、监管要求、税收、商业空间以及公司扩张困难在内的障碍继续制约着该市的企业成立。
Philadelphia, however, has its own unique problems, particularly adding fewer small businesses per capita than other large cities. A recent study from Pew Research found that the number of Black-, Hispanic- and female-owned small businesses increased 39% between 2012 and 2022, showing meaningful entrepreneurial growth, but barriers including access to capital, regulatory requirements, taxes, commercial space and the difficulty of scaling companies continued to restrain business formation in the city.
民主党策略师詹姆斯·卡维尔曾说过，在选举候选人时，“经济才是关键，傻瓜”。对共和党来说，好消息是经济具有韧性，全国小企业的整体情绪总体乐观，尽管他们面临诸多挑战。但这能否克服总统的低支持率？
The Democratic strategist James Carville once said that when it comes to electing candidates, “it’s the economy, stupid”. The good news for the Republicans is that the economy is resilient and the overall mood of the country’s small businesses is generally optimistic, despite the many challenges they face. But will that overcome the president’s low approval ratings?