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就业数据表明,特朗普面临的是现实问题,而非公关问题Job numbers make clear that Trump has a reality problem, not a public relations problem

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由于民意调查显示公众对经济普遍不满,唐纳德·特朗普上周强调了两点。首先是总统宣称相信经济现状如此惊人,值得被视为美国历史上最伟大的经济体。这位共和党人的第二点是,他唯一的问题与公共关系有关。

With public opinion polls showing broad public dissatisfaction with the economy, Donald Trump spent last week emphasizing two points. The first was the president’s stated belief that the economic status quo is so amazing that it deserves to be seen as the single greatest economy in the history of the United States. The Republican’s second point was that his only problem relates to public relations.

特朗普周三表示:“我们在宣传方面做得非常糟糕,在治理国家方面做得非常出色。”一天后,特朗普补充道,“我们唯一做得不好的就是公共关系。”

“We’re doing an extremely poor job of promotion and an extremely great job of running the country,” Trump said on Wednesday added a day later“The only thing we’re doing badly at is public relations.”These are certainly sentiments that might soothe the president’s ego, but on Friday morning, reality intervened once again: The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest report the last round of data before the midterm elections, showed the economy added just 29,000 jobs in September as the unemployment rate inched higher to 4.2%.

这些情绪当然可能会安抚总统的自尊心,但周五上午,现实再次介入:美国劳工统计局的最新报告中期选举前的最后一轮数据显示,9月份经济仅增加了29,000个就业岗位,失业率小幅上升至4.2%。更糟糕的是,夏季工资增长继续降温,未能跟上通胀率的步伐,7月和8月的就业总数被下调。

Making matters worse, wage growth continued to cool over the summer failing to keep pace with the inflation rate, and job totals from July and August were revised down. In fact, according to the latest figures, the economy jobs in July, marking the sixth time since last summer that job growth in the U.S. turned negative — something that did not happen at any point during Joe Biden’s presidency.

事实上,根据最新数据,7月份经济就业增长,这是自去年夏天以来美国就业增长第六次转为负增长,这在乔·拜登担任总统期间的任何时候都没有发生过。

All told, the U.S. economy has added 728,000 jobs over Trump’s 21-month second term.

总而言之,特朗普21个月的第二任期内,美国经济已增加728,000个就业岗位。在过去21个月里,经济增加了近318万个就业岗位。

Over the previous 21 months, the economy added nearly 3.18 million jobs. To contextualize the data, I put together this chart to show month-to-month totals since the 2020 election.

为了将数据背景化,我整理了这张图表,以显示自2020年大选以来的月度总数。蓝柱指向拜登的总统任期,红柱指向特朗普的总统任期。

The blue columns point to Biden’s presidency, while the red columns point to Trump’s. On CNN’s “State of the Union,” Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council and the top economist in the White House, argued that Americans should believe “the government hard data” instead of recent polls.

在美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)的“国情咨文”节目中,国家经济委员会主任、白宫顶级经济学家凯文·哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)认为,美国人应该相信“政府的硬数据”,而不是最近的民意调查。当时,主持人杰克·塔珀提醒他的客人,政府硬数据显示9月份就业增长乏力。“哦,来吧,”哈塞特回答说:“那只是上个月。”公平地说,这并不是一个完全令人愤慨的立场。事实上,我长期以来一直认为,月度变化不如更大的趋势重要。

At that point, host Jake Tapper reminded his guest that the government hard data showed anemic job growth in September. “Oh, come on,”Hassett replied“That’s just last month.”In fairness, that’s not an entirely outrageous position to take. Indeed, I’ve long argued that month-to-month changes are not as important as larger trends.

然而,哈塞特和他的老板面临的问题是,更大的趋势实际上描绘了一幅更糟糕的景象。我整理了一张额外的图表,显示了从1月到9月的逐年就业增长,这有助于表明特朗普当前任期的第一年是自大衰退以来美国就业增长最差的一年,而他当前任期的第二年则是最差的。

The problem for Hassett and his boss, however, is that the larger trends actually paint an even worse picture. I put together an additional chart showing job growth by year, spanning January through September, which helps show that the first year of Trump’s current term was the worst for American job growth since the Great Recession, and the second year of his current is worst.

迄今为止,白宫甚至没有试图解释为什么共和党总统第二任期开始后国内就业市场恶化。

To date, the White House hasn’t even tried to explain why the domestic job market worsened after the Republican president’s second term began.

帖子职位数字明确表明特朗普存在现实问题,而不是公关问题MS NOW

The post Job numbers make clear that Trump has a reality problem, not a public relations problem MS NOW