
杰克逊,密西西比州 — 拉斐尔·沃诺克正竭力让民主党人斯科特·科洛姆在深红的密西西比州当选。这是他对南方更大赌注的一部分。
JACKSON, Mississippi — Raphael Warnock is racing to get Democrat Scott Colom elected in deep-red Mississippi. It’s part of his bigger bet on the South.
科洛姆是一位富有魅力的地方检察官,在民意调查中距离击败共和党参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯仅一步之遥。而在缺乏更多专门资源的情况下,沃诺克本人正试图通过向该竞赛输送资金和捐助者来填补这一空白。
Colom, a charismatic local prosecutor, is within striking distance in the polls of unseating Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. And in the absence of more dedicated resources, Warnock himself is trying to fill the gap by directing money and donors to the race.
根据一位直接了解其努力的人士透露(该人士获准匿名以分享私人细节),他已直接向科洛姆的竞选委员会捐款超过50万美元。并且,在四场独立的募捐活动中,他一直试图引导参议院民主党的顶级捐助者支持此次竞选。
He has raised over $500,000 directly into Colom’s campaign committee, according to a person with direct knowledge of his efforts, granted anonymity to share private details. And, over the course of four separate fundraisers, has tried to steer Senate Democrats’ top donors to the race.
据POLITICO获得的活动录音显示,四月份,他在一次民主党捐助者早餐会上告诉与会者,他认为该党正在“忽视”密西西比州的竞选,引发了现场惊讶的笑声。
In April, he told attendees at a Democratic donor breakfast that he thinks the party is “sleeping on” the Mississippi contest, prompting surprised laughter from the crowd, according to a recording of the event obtained by POLITICO.
“我将要求你们抵制民主党忽视南方的倾向,”他对在场的捐助者说。“为了我们自身的利益,为了我们随时可能获胜的机会,我认为如果条件恰到好处,我们就能在密西西比州获胜。”沃诺克也被广泛视为潜在的总统竞选者,他正试图利用共和党在中期选举中极其不利的环境——这一环境正让越来越多传统红州变得可争夺。他不仅在密西西比州,而且在更广泛的南方地区奔走,以说服民主党人扩大在这一地区的布局,并在2028年前争取黑人选民的支持。
“I'm going to ask you to resist the Democratic tendency to ignore the South,” he told the assembled donors. “And for our own sake, for the sake of us having a possibility of winning over time, I think we can win in Mississippi if the conditions are just right.”Warnock, who is also widely seen as a potential presidential contender, is trying to capitalize on an incredibly unfavorable midterm environment for the GOP that has put more and more traditionally red states into play. He has been criss-crossing not just Mississippi, but the broader South, to convince Democrats to expand into the region and shore up their support with Black voters ahead of 2028.

他说,时机已经成熟,可以实施一种“新型南方战略”——这是对前总统理查德·尼克松在20世纪60年代末让共和党在该地区击败民主党的计划的一种演绎,该计划利用了白人对民权运动的反弹。
The time is ripe, he said, for a “new kind of Southern strategy” — a play off of former President Richard Nixon’s plan for Republicans to best Democrats in the region in the late 1960s that capitalized on white backlash to the civil rights movement.
到目前为止,这一直是个艰难的推销,尤其是在密西西比州:共和党控制着州政府的所有杠杆,特朗普在2024年以24个百分点的优势轻松获胜。密西西比州上一次将民主党人送入参议院是在1982年。
It’s been a hard sell so far, particularly in Mississippi: Republicans control all levers of state government, and Trump handily won by 24 points in 2024. The last time Mississippians sent a Democrat to the Senate was 1982.
尽管全国民主党人对科洛姆的竞选赞不绝口,但他们在扩大的参议院战场图上竞争的资源已经紧张,资金已被优先用于更昂贵、更高调的竞选,如爱荷华州、阿拉斯加州和缅因州。沃诺克为科洛姆筹集的50万美元仅占他本轮筹集的350万美元的15%。
Even though national Democrats speak highly of Colom’s candidacy, their resources to compete on an expanded Senate battleground map are already strained, and money has been prioritized in more expensive, high-profile contests like Iowa, Alaska and Maine. The half-million Warnock has raised for Colom is 15% of the $3.5 million he’s managed to raise over the cycle.
但这仍是沃诺克的一项战略举措:如果科洛姆爆冷获胜,将提升这位参议员的个人形象,因为他继续为参加总统竞选留下空间。即使科洛姆失败,南方也是2028年代表的宝库——而且黑人选民在该地区的民主党初选中占主导地位。
It’s still a strategic move on Warnock’s part: An upset win by Colom would boost the Senator’s own profile as he continues to leave the door open to running for president. And even if Colom loses, the South is a treasure trove of delegates for 2028 — and Black voters dominate the region in Democratic primaries.
当被问及他是否对白宫本人感兴趣时,沃诺克回避了回答,他说他“正在思考和祈祷我的技能能发挥最高和最佳的用途。”他补充道:“我多次站在十字路口,在那一刻,我总是知道该做什么。”
Pressed whether he’s interested in the White House himself, Warnock evaded, saying he’s “trying to think and pray about the highest and best use of my skills.”“I’ve been at crossroads many times, and in the moment, I've always known what to do,” he added.
其他民主党人认为,无论沃诺克在2028年做什么,这项工作都是有帮助的。
Other Democrats see the work as helpful regardless of what Warnock does in 2028.
“2028年的议论是他会倾听的,但我不认为这是他行动清单中的一部分,”曾参与沃诺克参议院竞选的佐治亚州民主党战略家安德鲁·希顿说。“无论那边发生什么,2028年都将是一个非常忙碌的一年——尤其是如果他决定不参选的话——我认为毫无疑问,他计划再次参选参议院。”摆脱今年连任的限制,沃诺克一直在卡罗来纳州、密西西比州和他佐治亚州的家乡之间奔波,以支持地方候选人并阐述他对政党未来的愿景——这一愿景贯穿了启动他政治生涯的地区。
“The ’28 chatter is something he will listen to, but I don't think it's something that's part of a checklist he's marching towards,” said Georgia Democratic strategist Andrew Heaton, who has worked on Warnock’s Senate campaigns. “Regardless of what happens on that front, ’28 is going to be a very busy year because — especially if he decides not to run — I think there's no question he's planning on running for the Senate again.”Free from the constraints of reelection this year, Warnock has traveled across the Carolinas, Mississippi and his Georgia home to support local candidates and pitch a vision of his party’s future that runs through the region that launched his political career.

在竞选途中接受POLITICO采访时,沃诺克将民主党在2020年佐治亚州的胜利——包括他自己的胜利、参议员乔恩·奥索夫的胜利以及前总统乔·拜登的胜利——与他在密西西比州看到的有利于民主党发展的条件进行了类比。他指出,如果民主党现在不投入,也不投入那些构成党联盟核心的黑人选民,这种胜利将从前景中消失。
terviews with POLITICO on the campaign trail, Warnock drew parallels between Democrats’ 2020 wins in Georgia — his own, Sen. Jon Ossoff’s and former President Joe Biden’s — and the conditions he sees emerging in the Magnolia State for Democratic growth. Those kinds of wins will disappear from the horizon if Democrats fail to invest now and in the Black voters who are core to the party’s coalition, he argued.
密西西比州黑人人口占比超过35%,对民主党争取有色人种选民的努力至关重要,因为许多选民在2024年转向了特朗普和共和党。近年来,密西西比州的强势民主党候选人曾获得约45%的选票,但尚未有人能够在此实现胜利,而该州有着长期存在的种族线两极分化投票历史。
Mississippi, where over 35% of the population is Black, would be key to the Democratic Party’s efforts to win back voters of color, as many shifted toward Trump and Republicans in 2024. Strong Democratic candidates have reached around 45% of the vote in the state in recent years, but none have been able to punch through for a victory in Mississippi, which has a long history of extremely polarized voting along racial lines.
然而,在最高法院削弱《投票权法案》之后,出现了黑人选民以更高人数涌向投票站的迹象——一些民主党人希望这可能改变该州的政治格局。
But in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to gut the Voting Rights Act, there are signs Black voters are surging to the polls in higher numbers — and some Democrats hope that could remake the state’s politics.
“投资于党的基础并让基础理解党认识到这些是忠诚的民主党选民,黑人选民想要其他选民想要的东西,这符合党的利益,”沃诺克说。“他们想要所有家庭都想要的那种繁荣和机遇。”
“It is in the interest of the party to invest in the base and have the base understand that the party understands that these are loyal Democratic voters, and Black voters want what other voters want,” said Warnock. “They want the same kind of prosperity and opportunity that all families want.”
科洛姆则更为直率。当被问及他是否认为忽视密西西比州及其参议院选举相当于党忽视黑人选民时,他说:“是啊,当然,100%。”民主党过去不介意在竞选最后阶段向传统红州投入大量资金,但密西西比州尚未进入该名单的前列,而科洛姆仍面临与海德-史密斯缩小差距的艰巨挑战。建设类似佐治亚州那样被证明有效的全州草根基础设施需要时间和资源,而在这一选举周期,这些资源尚未在密西西比州以显著规模到位。
Colom was more blunt. Asked if he equates ignoring Mississippi and its Senate race to the party ignoring Black voters, he said: “Yeah, of course, 100 percent.”Democrats have not been averse to flooding money into traditionally red states in the final stretch of the campaign, but Mississippi has not yet made it high on that list, where Colom still faces an uphill battle to close the gap with Hyde-Smith. Building out the statewide grassroots infrastructure that has proved effective in places like Georgia takes time and resources, which have yet to land in Mississippi at a significant scale this cycle.
“民主党正在密西西比州进行投资,但力度不够。而且,我认为,当然也远不及我认为我们应该投入的程度,也远不及我们本可以投入的程度,”沃诺克在该州竞选活动之间的一次采访中表示。他当时有点赶时间:在为科洛姆筹款和与当地宗教领袖举行活动之间,沃诺克想去看望民权时代巨人梅格·伊弗斯的故居。伊弗斯于1963年在自己杰克逊住宅的车库处被枪击身亡。
“Democrats are investing in Mississippi, but not enough. And, I think, certainly not as much as I think we should, and not as much as we could,” Warnock said in an interview between campaign stops in the state. He was in somewhat of a rush: between a fundraiser for Colom and an event with local faith leaders, Warnock wanted to visit the home of Medgar Evers, the civil rights era titan who was shot and killed in the car port of his Jackson home in 1963.
“我们在这里的投入已经足以迫使对方在密西西比州展开竞争,这是一种进步,但仍然不够,”他说。
“We're playing enough here to force the other side to compete in Mississippi, and that is an improvement, but it's not enough,” he said.

科洛姆本人一直在恳求全国民主党人将注意力集中在他这次竞选上。
Colom himself has begged national Democrats to focus on his race.
“密西西比州一直以来都具有竞争力。只是它一直没有得到应有的关注和资源,”科洛姆在其竞选总部接受采访时表示。
“Mississippi has really always been competitive. It just hasn't got the attention, the resources it deserves,” Colom said in an interview at his campaign headquarters.
一些支持已经到位:与民主党结盟的超级政治行动委员会American Bridge本月早些时候向该竞选注入了超过200万美元;而早在本周早些时候,《纽约时报》报道称,一位巨额捐赠者计划将其个人财富中的700万美元一分为二,用于支持科洛姆的竞选以及其他几场竞选。几位顶级民主党人已经采取行动表达他们的支持。
Some has come: American Bridge, a Democrat-aligned super PAC, pumped over $2 million into the race earlier this month, and earlier this week the New York Times reported that a single megadonor is set to split $7 million of his personal wealth between Colom’s race and others. Several top Democrats have made an effort to signal their support.
前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯和前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格计划在选举日前访问该州。参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默及其民主党参议院竞选委员会主席、参议员克斯滕·吉利布兰德各自为科洛姆举办了独立的筹款活动,据一位知情人士透露(该人士获准匿名以分享私人细节)。此外,特拉华州参议员丽萨·布兰特·罗切斯特(民主党参议院竞选委员会副主席)也曾在密西西比州与科洛姆一起开展竞选活动。
Former Vice President Kamala Harris and former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg plan to visit the state before Election Day. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and his Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair, Kirsten Gillibrand, have each hosted separate fundraisers for Colom, according to a source familiar with the events, granted anonymity to share private details. And Delaware Sen. Lisa Blunt Rochester, a DSCC vice-chair, campaigned with Colom in Mississippi.
科洛姆的竞选委员会在夏季筹得的资金超过了海德-史密斯,为其筹集了130万美元,而后者仅筹得略高于64万美元。但这笔数额相比其他州涌入的数千万美元仍显微不足道。
Colom’s campaign committee outraised Hyde-Smith’s over the summer, posting $1.3 million to her just over $640,000. But it pales in comparison to the tens of millions that have flooded into other states.

在单独的声明中,DSCC和参议院多数派PAC的发言人赞扬科洛姆是一位强有力的候选人,但表示他们受到支出限额的限制。两个团队都表示他们正在“密切关注”这场竞选。
In separate statements, spokespeople for the DSCC and Senate Majority PAC lauded Colom as a strong candidate, but said they were constrained by how much they could spend. Both groups said they were monitoring the race “closely.”
共和党人仍在公开表达他们对保持该席位的信心。海德-史密斯的竞选经理杰克·蒙森在一份声明中将科洛姆与华盛顿民主党人联系起来,并表示竞选“计划让科洛姆拥有充足的资源。我们正在执行我们自己的竞选计划,这一点我们已经考虑在内。”在他在密西西比州短暂停留一天之后,沃诺克面临着一个鲜明的对比:当民主党人向南部州投入资源时,他们能够做到什么。
Republicans are still publicly maintaining their confidence in their hold on the seat. Jake Monssen, Hyde-Smith’s campaign manager, tied Colom to Washington Democrats in a statement and said the campaign “planned for Colom to have plenty of resources. We are executing our own campaign plan with that in mind.”One day after his sojourn in Mississippi, Warnock was presented with a stark contrast in what Democrats are capable of when they devote resources to a Southern state.
周四,他来到北卡罗来纳州,在那里,民主党参议院候选人罗伊·库珀在筹款和民调方面正压倒他的共和党对手迈克尔·惠特利。作为本轮选举周期中民主党顶尖的候选人招募对象之一,库珀自竞选一开始就吸引了大量资源和全国关注。
He was in North Carolina on Thursday, where Democratic Senate nominee Roy Cooper is dominating his Republican opponent, Michael Whatley, in fundraising and polling. As one of Democrats’ top candidate recruits of the cycle, Cooper has attracted significant resources and national attention from the outset of the race.
但密西西比州和北卡罗来纳州在人口、收入和人口结构方面存在巨大差异——这种变化并非一夜之间发生的。自奥巴马总统2008年在那里取得胜利以来,民主党人就开始在该州大规模投入资源,并在2013年共和党主导的州政府重新划定该州国会选区地图后进一步加大了力度。
But Mississippi and North Carolina are two enormously different states, in population, income, and demographics — and that change didn’t happen overnight. Democrats began significantly investing in the state ever since President Barack Obama’s 2008 victory there and ramped up their efforts after the GOP-led state government redrew the state’s congressional maps in 2013.
“在过去的13年里,这付出了很多努力,”众议员瓦莱丽·福希(D-N.C.)在达勒姆党徒拉锯活动启动仪式的侧边说道。“我们的目光从未离开过目标,因为我们相信我们能够实现这种改变,我们需要成为我们想要看到的改变,我们现在已经付诸行动,我们将因此而获胜。”
“It's taken a lot over the last 13 years,” Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.) said on the sidelines of a party canvass kickoff in Durham. “Our eye has never been taken off the ball, and because we believe that we could make that change, that we needed to be the change that we wanted to see, we have put that in action now, and we're going to win because of it.”