在纽约引人注目的广告活动是一组位于州界附近的广告牌。广告牌上写着：“您现在正离开纽约（就像其他人一样）。”该州的人口自新冠疫情以来一直未能恢复，截至2025年，仍比疫情前减少约20.1万人。纽约州长凯西·霍楚尔的纽约州存在惩罚性税收、庞大的福利体系、高昂的公用事业成本以及过多表现不佳的学校。
The ad campaign turning heads in New York is a set of billboards near the state border. “YOU ARE NOW LEAVING NY (LIKE EVERYONE ELSE),” the signs say. The state’s population never recovered from Covid-19, and it’s still down about 201,000, as of 2025. Gov. Kathy Hochul’s New York has punitive taxes, a bloated welfare state, high utility costs, and too many failing schools.
那么，为什么民调显示霍楚尔领先于共和党提名人、拿骚县行政长官布鲁斯·布拉克曼？一个原因是民主党正在动员选民反对特朗普总统。特朗普的关税政策及其对伊朗的战争为霍楚尔提供了一个替罪羊，用以解释她所在州更大且持续存在的可负担性问题。另一个更令人沮丧的想法是，纽约正陷入一个自我强化的向左倾斜的恶性循环之中。
So why do polls have Ms. Hochul leading the Republican nominee, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman? One answer is that Democrats are mobilized to vote against President Trump. Mr. Trump’s tariffs and war in Iran have given Ms. Hochul something to blame for her state’s larger and enduring affordability problems. A more depressing thought is that New York is spinning down a self-reinforcing spiral to the destructive left.
该州人口约2000万，而佛罗里达州为2350万。早在2013年，两州人口仍相近，均约为1960万。然而，纽约州的预算规模是佛罗里达州的两倍，达到2680亿美元，而纽约市的预算另外约为1250亿美元。
The state has about 20 million people, compared with 23.5 million for Florida. As recently as 2013, both states had about the same population of 19.6 million. Yet New York state’s budget is twice as big as Florida’s at $268 billion, and New York City’s is another $125 billion or so.
在税收竞争力排名中，税收基金会将纽约州列为全国第50位。在财产税方面排名倒数第四（第47位），销售税排名第42位，个人所得税排名倒数第一（第50位）。
On its ranking of state tax competitiveness, the Tax Foundation puts New York at No. 50 overall. It ranks 47th worst for property taxes, 42nd for sales taxes and 50th for individual income taxes.
纽约市居民需缴纳最高州个人所得税税率10.9%，再加上市政府征收的3.876%，合计税率约为14.78%。再加上联邦最高边际税率37%，政府实际上会拿走下一美元收入的一半以上。难怪佛罗里达州0%的个人所得税看起来如此有吸引力。
New York City residents pay the top state income tax of 10.9%, plus 3.876% to City Hall, for a combined rate of about 14.78%. Add the federal top marginal rate tax of 37%, and the government takes more than half of the next dollar. Is it any wonder Florida’s 0% income tax looks attractive?
然而，社会派民主党人仍渴望更多政策倾斜。随着霍楚尔所属的政党日益左倾，她小心翼翼地维持着与社会派人士的良好关系，最近还与众议员亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯一同开展竞选活动。州长霍楚尔支持对第二套住房征收附加税这一欠妥的提议，这几乎等同于公开支持佐兰·马姆达尼市长提出的“向富人征税”主张。奥尔巴尼的每个人都清楚：选举过后，州议会必将通过新的增税法案，而霍楚尔也会签字批准，目的不过是给马姆达尼提出的全民托儿计划提供资金罢了。
Yet socialist Democrats are hungry for more, and as Ms. Hochul’s party veers left, she is careful to stay on good terms with the socialists, campaigning recently with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The Governor all but co-signed Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s pledge to “tax the rich” this year, by endorsing an ill-conceived pied-à-terre levy on second homes. Everyone in Albany knows that the Legislature will pass, and Ms. Hochul will sign, another tax increase after the election to (pretend to) fund Mr. Mamdani’s universal child care plan. Mr. Blakeman wants to break the cycle of tax, spend and decline.
布莱克曼则希望打破这种“增税—开支膨胀—经济衰退”的恶性循环。在最近的一场辩论中，他还指出纽约州禁止水力压裂开采的举措剥夺了当地居民获得经济发展的机会，要知道宾夕法尼亚州边境那边的居民正享受着这类发展红利。然而霍楚尔却刻意歪曲他的立场：“想象一下他希望纽约州北部变成什么样子吧：到处都是石油天然气钻井平台，到处都是排放浓烟的化石燃料发电厂。”
In a recent debate, he also argued that New York’s ban on fracking denies residents the economic development they can see across the border in Pennsylvania. Yet here’s how Ms. Hochul caricatured his position: “Picture what he wants to see upstate: He wants oil and gas rigs everywhere. He wants fossil-fuel generating factories spewing smoke everywhere.”Does Ms. Hochul think this is what Pennsylvania’s Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is doing?
难道霍楚尔认为宾夕法尼亚州的民主党州长乔什·夏皮罗也在推行这样的政策吗？显然并非如此，只不过她以为自己能蒙骗住选民罢了。
No, though she thinks she can fool voters. In July the average residential cost of electricity in New York, 29.9 cents a kilowatt-hour, was 37.7% higher than in Pennsylvania, and 18.7% higher than in New Jersey.
今年7月，纽约州居民用电的平均价格为每千瓦时29.9美分，这一数值比宾夕法尼亚州高出37.7%，也比新泽西州高出18.7%。面对气候保护团体对化石燃料行业的敌视态度，霍楚尔非但没有采取强硬立场，反而向选民发放最高200美元的能源补贴，可这笔钱对于弥补他们上涨的电费而言不过是杯水车薪。
Rather than stand up to the climate lobby’s hostility to fossil fuels, Ms. Hochul is mailing voters energy “rebate checks” up to $200 that amount to a fraction of their higher bills. Mr. Blakeman has run a spirited campaign, and Republicans of his variety who support abortion rights can win in Northeast states, once voters get fed up enough with left-wing, one-party rule.
布莱克曼的竞选活动开展得有声有色。像他这样支持堕胎权的共和党人完全有可能在东北部各州赢得选举——只要选民们受够了左翼势力的一党独大。霍楚尔则算不上政治上的能人：2014年，时任州长安德鲁·科莫从默默无闻的政治圈层中选中她作为竞选搭档；2021年科莫辞职后，霍楚尔便接任州长之职。一年后她成功连任，但得票率比预期要低得多。
Ms. Hochul is no political dynamo. Gov. Andrew Cuomo plucked her from political obscurity to be his running mate in 2014. Then she inherited the job when he quit in 2021. A year later Ms. Hochul won a term of her own, but it was closer than expected.
作为共和党人赢得纽约州全州选举，需要在友好县份提升共和党选票，同时限制在纽约市的失利幅度。但上个月的一项民调显示，特朗普先生在该州可能选民中的支持率为29%，而霍楚尔女士提及他如此之多，以至于你会以为特朗普先生正在竞选州长。
Winning New York statewide as a Republican involves running up the GOP vote in friendly counties, while limiting the margin of loss in the Big Apple. But a poll last month said Mr. Trump’s approval among the state’s likely voters was 29%, and Ms. Hochul mentions him so often you’d think Mr. Trump is running for Governor.
纽约选民的外流甚至可能对霍楚尔女士的政治前景有利：每一个因经商或抚养家庭过于艰难而逃离该州的沮丧居民，都意味着少了一票支持变革。人口普查局表示，仅在2024年，纽约州净流失约6.5万居民，流向佛罗里达州、得克萨斯州、康涅狄格州和新泽西州。前一年这一数字为8.6万。
The New York voter exodus may even work to Ms. Hochul’s political benefit: Every frustrated resident who flees the state, because it’s too hard to run a business or raise a family, is one fewer vote for change. The Census Bureau says in 2024 alone New York lost about 65,000 residents on net to Florida, Texas, Connecticut and New Jersey. The year before, 86,000.
这就是为什么州边界上的那些广告牌引起了一些关注。但它们也凸显了共和党面临的挑战。许多纽约人正用脚投票。一旦他们离开，就无法从迈阿密投出布拉克曼选票。[视频] 《华尔街日报》观点：左翼正在针对杰西卡·蒂施
That’s why those billboards at the state border got some attention. But they also point to a challenge for the GOP. Many New Yorkers are voting with their feet. Once they do, they can’t cast a Blakeman ballot from Miami. [video] WSJ Opinion: The Left Comes for Jessica Tisch