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美国最不受尊敬的州长的胜利The Triumph of America’s Least Respected Governor

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州长凯西·霍楚尔访问曼哈顿的玛玛·廷戈儿童保育与学习中心。Adam Pape for The Atlantic

晨,当纽约市逐渐苏醒时,一位来自布法罗的娇小老太太会穿上运动鞋和棒球帽,与丈夫在曼哈顿东区的公寓附近散步45分钟。她的安保团队会保持距离,而几乎没有人能在这几次散步中认出凯西·霍切尔——尽管她已担任纽约州州长五年之久。

On many mornings, as New York City is waking up, a diminutive grandmother from Buffalo puts on sneakers and a baseball cap and takes a 45-minute walk with her husband around the streets near their apartment on Manhattan’s East Side. Her security detail keeps its distance, and hardly anyone seems to recognize Kathy Hochul on these strolls, even though she has been the governor of New York for the past five years.

在大型州的州长中,能享有如此程度匿名性的人并不多,但聚光灯迟迟没有聚焦到这位68岁的霍切尔身上。在她担任副州长的岁月里,安德鲁·库莫从未将她纳入自己的核心圈子。自2021年接任州长以来,她始终处于更重量级政治人物阴影之下——无论是觊觎白宫的民主党同僚,还是那些引发两极分化、更常登上头条的皇后区人物:特朗普总统和纽约市市长佐兰·马姆达尼。

Not many big-state governors enjoy such anonymity, but the spotlight has been slow to find the 68-year-old Hochul. Andrew Cuomo excluded her from his inner circle during her years as his deputy. Since succeeding him in 2021, she has operated in the shadow of much larger political personalities, be they fellow Democrats eyeing the White House or the polarizing Queens men—President Trump and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani—who generate far more headlines.

霍切尔担任州长头几年所受到的关注,大多为负面。2022年,她以6个百分点的优势赢得连任,这一差距在纽约州来说相对微弱,南希·佩洛西甚至指责这一结果导致民主党失去了对众议院的掌控。(那一年,民主党在纽约州输掉了五场原本有望获胜的国会选举。)到2024年底,霍切尔的支持率已跌破40%,而计划对她发起初选挑战的民主党人中,还包括她亲自挑选的副州长安东尼奥·德尔加多。

What attention Hochul attracted in her first years as governor was largely negative. She won her own full term in 2022 by six points, a relatively narrow margin for New York that Nancy Pelosi blamed for costing Democrats control of the House. (The party lost five winnable congressional races in New York that year.) By late 2024, Hochul’s approval rating had dropped below 40 percent, and the Democrats who were plotting primary challenges included her own handpicked lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado.

但过去两年间,她的处境实现了令人印象深刻的逆转。霍切尔因与特朗普和马姆达尼都建立了富有成效的关系而获得赞誉。她轻松击败了左翼对手(德尔加多于2月退出了州长竞选),也击退了右翼挑战者(众议员伊莉斯·斯特凡尼克的支持行动仅持续了一个多月)。霍切尔似乎正朝着再次赢得纽约州州长四年任期迈进;即便她仍未成为顶级政治明星,但也赢得了曾一度几乎忽视她的政党的尊重。

But the past two years have yielded an impressive turnaround. Hochul has drawn praise for forging productive relationships with both Trump and Mamdani. She easily dispatched opponents on her left (Delgado quit his campaign for governor in February) and her right (Representative Elise Stefanik’s bid lasted just more than a month). Hochul appears on track to secure another four-year term as New York’s governor, and if she remains something less than an A-list political celebrity, she has earned the respect of a party that all but dismissed her not long ago.

“凯西·霍楚尔是美国的翻盘州长,”曾是霍楚尔最严厉批评者之一的布朗克斯民主党众议员里奇·托雷斯对我说道。就在2024年底前,托雷斯还曾用诸如之类的词来形容她的表现;他警告说——这绝非一句赞美——她可能会成为民主党人的“新拜登”。但他已经学会了不要低估她。“你若这样做,风险自负,”托雷斯说。马姆达尼作为一名州议员曾表示霍楚尔“辜负了我们全州选民”,如今也经历了类似的转变。“她做得好得令人难以置信,”他在一次采访中对我说。

“Kathy Hochul is the comeback governor of America,” Representative Ritchie Torres, a Bronx Democrat who was once one of Hochul’s harshest critics, told me. As recently as late 2024, Torres used words such as , , and to describe her performance; he warned—and this was not meant as a compliment—that she could be the Democrats’ “new Biden.”But he has learned not to underestimate her. “You do so at your own peril,” Torres said. Mamdani, who as a state legislator said that Hochul had “failed our constituents across the state,” has had a similar conversion. “She’s done incredibly well,” he told me in an interview.

一些库默的忠实支持者将霍楚尔最近的成功归功于运气与技巧各半。全美民主党人在下个月的选举中势必会比2022年表现得好得多。正如接近州长的人士欣然承认的那样,一边是特朗普,另一边是民主社会主义者马姆达尼,这为温和派的执政开辟了广阔的空间。

Some Cuomo loyalists chalk up Hochul’s recent success to luck as much as skill. Democrats nationwide are poised to have a much better election next month than they did in 2022. And as people close to the governor readily acknowledge, having Trump on one side and Mamdani, a democratic socialist, on the other opens up a wide lane for a moderate to govern.

然而,霍楚尔的盟友们则更倾向于将她的翻盘归功于一位精明且坚韧的政治家对自身权力力量的理解。他们指出,在没有引起太大轰动的情况下,她兑现了民主党人认为该党为赢得失去的选民所必需的负担能力议程——该议程以扩大育儿、住房和能源生产为核心。性格急躁且暗中争强好胜的霍楚尔敦促其幕僚加快宣布对大型人工智能数据中心建设实施一年期暂停令,以便让她成为全美首位采取这一举动的州长。

Hochul’s allies, however, are more likely to attribute her turnaround to a canny and dogged politician understanding the power of her office. Without much fanfare, they point out, she has delivered the kind of affordability agenda—centered around expanded child care, housing, and energy production—that Democrats say the party needs to win back the voters they’ve lost. Impatient and quietly competitive, Hochul drove her staff to speed up the announcement of a one-year moratorium on the construction of large AI data centers so that she could be the nation’s first governor to make such a move.

她还对该州民主党的竞选机器进行了彻底改组,并在2024年使民主党人夺回了他们在两年前失去的四个国会席位。

She also overhauled the state party’s campaign apparatus, and in 2024, Democrats won back four of the congressional seats they had lost two years earlier.

在交谈中,霍丘尔有时说话非常轻柔,以至于让人难以听清。但在今夏的一系列采访中,她热情地强调,自己的成功源于一种深思熟虑的策略——旨在削弱她所描述的纽约政坛那种以自我为中心、充满对抗的文化,这种文化不仅让民主党人相互对立,也让他们与特朗普针锋相对。“我无需发动战争,”霍丘尔对我说。她说,她本可以通过先制造冲突、再击败对手来获得更多媒体报道。但她选择了不同的方式。“我会赢,但不必在此过程中摧毁他人,”她说,“并非每次都必须如此。”

In conversation, Hochul sometimes speaks so softly that she can be hard to hear. But in a series of interviews this summer, she was eager to tout her success as the product of a deliberate strategy to ratchet down what she described as an ego-driven culture of confrontation in New York politics—one that pitted Democrats against one another as well as against Trump. “I didn’t need to go to war,” Hochul told me. She could, she said, generate more media coverage by first creating conflict and then beating down her opponents. But she’s chosen a different approach. “I win, but I don’t have to destroy people in the process,” she said. “Not always.”

尽管如此,霍丘尔表示,她已认真注意到许多曾经的批评者如今已回归她的阵营:“有一长串人在请求原谅。”

Nonetheless, Hochul said she has taken careful note of the many former critics who have returned to her fold: “There’s a long line of people asking for forgiveness.”

霍丘尔是纽约州首位女性州长,因此她也是首位领导该州的女性母亲(她常常补充说,还是首位祖母)。她自称为“妈妈州长”。当我在曼哈顿一家餐厅的早餐桌上问她,是什么让她能够应对像特朗普和库莫这样骄傲自满的男性时,她没有提及任何专业或政治经验,而是将答案指向了育儿经历。“我带过幼儿,也带过青少年,”霍丘尔说。

Hochul is the first woman to serve as the governor of New York, and as such, she is also the first mother to lead the state (and, she often adds, the first grandmother). She calls herself the “mom governor,” and when I asked her, over breakfast at a Manhattan diner, what had prepared her to deal with prideful men such as Trump and Cuomo, she turned not to any professional or political experience but to child-rearing. “I’ve raised toddlers. I’ve raised teenagers,” Hochul said.

“在局势动荡不安时,我很多次都必须成为风暴眼,成为那个冷静而坚定的声音。”将特朗普比作孩子已经成了一种陈词滥调,但在特朗普第二个任期内,霍丘尔与任何一位民主党人一样,都找到了既能与他合作、又不会屈服于其要求的方法。(或许这也有助于她:与党内许多领导人不同,她并不打算在两年后取代他的职位。)

“So many times when things are swirling around, I’ve had to be the eye of the hurricane, be that calm voice.”Comparing Trump to a child has become something of a cliché, but as much as any Democrat during the president’s second term, Hochul has figured out a way to work with him without capitulating to his demands. (It probably helps that unlike many leaders in her party, she is not looking to take his job in two years.)

霍丘尔有时甚至成功说服特朗普改变立场,例如,他曾同意恢复对纽约州反恐资金的1.87亿美元削减。

Hochul has persuaded Trump to reverse course at times, such as when he agreed to restore $187 million in cuts to counterterrorism funding for New York.

她还声称,特朗普之所以没有将该州的国民警卫队联邦化,也没有在将其部署至其他城市中心后向纽约市增派移民和海关执法局(ICE)人员,正是她的功劳。今年2月,在白宫举行的一场州长会议上,特朗普对到会的各州领导人表示,除非霍丘尔提出要求,否则他不会加强在纽约的移民执法行动。

She also claims credit for Trump not federalizing the state’s National Guard or surging ICE into New York City following deployments into other urban centers. During a White House meeting of governors in February, Trump told the assembled state leaders that he would not ramp up immigration enforcement in New York unless Hochul requested it.

霍楚尔告诉我,她与特朗普的对话有时很融洽,有时则剑拔弩张。她试图迎合他的虚荣心和商业利益,警告他大规模冰局突袭带来的“混乱”不仅会损害他自己的利益,还会波及他在纽约的许多富有朋友。“我已经用过很多次这个论点了,”霍楚尔说。“我们只是基于共同利益来调整论证角度,而且奏效了——大多数时候。”

Hochul told me her conversations with Trump are sometimes cordial and sometimes combative. She tries to appeal to his vanity and business interests, warning him that the “chaos” of major ICE raids would hurt not only his own bottom line but those of his many wealthy friends in New York. “I’ve used that many times,” Hochul said. “We just angle the argument based on a shared interest, and it works—most times.”

去年,她游说特朗普接手宾州车站的重建项目,这是全美最繁忙的交通枢纽,也是霍楚尔口中的“地狱般的烂摊子”。霍楚尔正确地推断这位老牌开发商会接受她的提议,这一举动让她摆脱了一个困扰其前任们的项目。(正如其风格所显示的,特朗普团队已透露总统希望在该综合体上盖上自己的名字,而霍楚尔尚未公开否决这一提议。)

Last year she pitched Trump on taking over the redevelopment of Penn Station, the nation’s busiest transit hub and an eyesore that Hochul referred to as “a hellhole.”Hochul correctly surmised that the longtime developer would take her up on the offer, and the move relieved her of responsibility for a project that had bedeviled her predecessors. (Characteristically, Trump officials have made it known that the president wants his name stamped on the complex, a proposal that Hochul has yet to publicly veto.)

在竞选期间,特朗普公开攻击霍楚尔,为她的共和党对手、长岛郡行政长官布鲁斯·布莱克曼助选。特朗普称她“愚蠢”和“蠢货民主党人”,最近批评她反对对加拿大的关税,并拒绝配合他将安大略湖更名为“美国湖”。

The president has leveled public attacks on Hochul as he campaigns for her Republican opponent, Bruce Blakeman, a county executive on Long Island. Trump has called her “stupid” and a “Dumocrat,” criticizing her most recently for opposing his tariffs on Canada and for refusing to go along with his renaming of Lake Ontario as “Lake America.”

然而在私下里,总统的语气往往截然不同。据一位知情助手透露,他会对霍楚尔说:“你对我这么刻薄,但我还是喜欢你。”他们有时也会谈论政治。去年12月斯特凡尼克退出州长竞选的那天,霍楚尔恰好与特朗普通了电话。斯特凡尼克作为国会中特朗普的重要代言人,曾希望获得总统的背书,在初选中对抗布莱克曼,但特朗普保持了中立。

In private, however, the president’s tone is often different. He’ll tell Hochul, according to an aide privy to their calls, “You’re so mean to me, but I like you anyways.”They’ll sometimes talk politics as well. Hochul happened to have a call with Trump on the day last December when Stefanik quit the governor’s race. Stefanik, a top Trump surrogate in Congress, had wanted the president’s endorsement in a primary against Blakeman, but Trump had stayed neutral.

霍楚尔告诉我,她问总统为何不支持斯特凡尼克,考虑到她一直是如此坚定的盟友。霍楚尔说,特朗普支支吾吾,一边赞扬斯特凡尼克,一边提到他与布莱克曼的长久友谊。

Hochul told me she had asked the president why he hadn’t backed Stefanik, given how strong an ally she had been. Trump hemmed and hawed, she said, praising Stefanik while also noting his long friendship with Blakeman.

霍楚尔不让他躲过这个问题,再次追问。最后,特朗普对布莱克曼评价道:“他长得像那么回事(He looks the part)。” 霍楚尔在办公室复述这通电话时说:“所以我才竞选对抗布莱克曼。” 然后,她带着一丝豪言壮语补充道:“这也是他明年会进入特朗普内阁的原因。”(2022年败给霍楚尔的特朗普盟友李·泽尔丁,现任他的环保局局长。)白宫未回应置评请求。

Hochul, not letting him dodge the question, pressed again. Finally, Trump said of Blakeman: “He looks the part.”“So that’s why I’m running against Blakeman,” Hochul said as she recounted the call in her office. Then, in a bit of bravado, she added: “And that’s why he’ll be in Trump’s Cabinet next year.” (The Trump ally whom Hochul defeated in 2022, Lee Zeldin, is now his EPA administrator.) The White House did not respond to requests for comment.

相比之下,霍楚尔与马姆达尼的关系更容易处理。从一开始,他们的政治优先事项基本一致。马姆达尼去年赢得纽约市长民主党提名后,霍楚尔背书支持他对抗以第三方身份参选的库莫,当时纽约另外两位最有影响力的民主党人——众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯和参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默——均未表示支持马姆达尼。

By comparison, Hochul’s relationship with Mamdani has been easier to manage. From the start, their political priorities were largely aligned. After Mamdani won the Democratic nomination for mayor last year, Hochul endorsed his campaign against Cuomo, who was running on a third-party ballot line, at a time when neither of New York’s other two most powerful Democrats, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, were offering Mamdani their support. (Mamdani returned the favor by endorsing Hochul’s bid in February.)

(马姆达尼今年二月背书霍楚尔竞选连任,以示回报。)霍楚尔也有既得利益,希望新市长能保持纽约市犯罪率下降的势头,因为选民对公共安全的担忧曾搅乱她2022年的竞选。在背书马姆达尼前,她告诉我,曾恳请他承诺留任警察局长杰西卡·蒂施——这位技术官僚兼亿万富翁继承人被商界许多人视为稳定力量。霍楚尔暗示曾将留任蒂什作为支持的条件。

Hochul also had a vested interest in the new mayor maintaining a drop in crime in New York City after voter concerns about public safety upended her 2022 campaign. Before endorsing Mamdani, she told me, she implored him to pledge that he would keep as police commissioner Jessica Tisch, the technocrat and billionaire heiress whom many in the business community had credited as a stabilizing force. Hochul hinted that she had made Tisch’s retention a condition of her support.

“这对我很重要,”她说。(马姆达尼告诉我,该通话影响了他的决定,但他将她对蒂施的推荐描述为“更多是一种建议”。)几周后马姆达尼公开宣布留任决定时,曾致电霍楚尔提前通知。“我听到了你的意见,”他对州长说道。

“It was important to me,” she said. (Mamdani told me that the call factored into his decision, though he described her push for Tisch as “more of a recommendation.”) When Mamdani made his choice public several weeks later, he called Hochul to give her a heads-up. “I heard you on that,” he told the governor.

马姆达尼在11月赢得市长选举后,霍楚就应对特朗普向他提出了建议。在两人当月于白宫会面前,她敦促这位当选市长要与总统“寻找共同利益”。“把瞄准镜从纽约市身上移开,”霍楚告诉他,她向我回忆道。“别让我们成为靶心。”马姆达尼最终以一种令几乎所有人都感到惊讶的程度迷住了特朗普,帮助消除了人们对该市成为政府下一个打击目标的担忧。

After Mamdani won the mayoral election in November, Hochul gave him advice on dealing with Trump. Before the two met in the White House that month, she urged the mayor-elect to “find common interest” with the president. “Take the sights off of New York City,” Hochul told him, she recalled to me. “Don’t let us be in the bull’s-eye.”Mamdani ended up charming Trump to a degree that surprised nearly everyone, helping allay fears that the city was next on the administration’s list of targets..

州长霍楚尔在曼哈顿高桥娱乐中心的新闻发布会前与纽约市长佐兰·马姆达尼握手。Adam Pape for The Atlantic Hochul greets New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani before a press conference at Manhattan’s High Bridge Recreation Center.

“我完全采纳了那条建议,”市长说。“对我来说,这说明了她如何看待这项工作,即如何最好地为民众服务。如果你是从这一预期结果倒推,它就能让你为每一次会面做好准备,无论你与会面对象的共识或分歧程度如何。”当然,霍楚和马姆达尼并非在所有事情上都意见一致。她反对他在竞选期间推动对百万富翁和企业增税,以资助社会项目的扩张。

“I absolutely took that advice,” the mayor said. “To me, it speaks to how she looks at this work as how best to deliver for people. And if you are working backwards from that as your intended outcome, it allows you to prepare for each and every meeting, no matter the level of agreement or disagreement with whomever you’re meeting with.”Hochul and Mamdani, of course, do not agree on everything. She opposed his campaign push to raise taxes on millionaires and corporations to fund an expansion of social programs.

最近,她批评了该市推出针对昂贵第二住宅的新税——所谓的“空置豪宅税”——并温和地建议他把精力集中在城市事务上,而不是去挑战以色列总理内塔尼亚胡(马姆达尼希望联邦政府以战争罪逮捕他)。但总体而言,两人相处得非常融洽。“她很真诚,”马姆达尼说。“无论我是站在她身边出席新闻发布会,还是坐在桌子对面与她交谈,都是同一种对话。”他带着一丝讽刺意味地指出,在政治圈,这种情况往往并不存在。

More recently, she criticized the city’s rollout of a new levy on expensive second homes—the so-called pied-à-terre tax—and gently suggested that he keep his focus on the city rather than pick fights with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (whom Mamdani wants the federal government to arrest for war crimes). But on the whole, they have gotten along swimmingly. “She is sincere,” Mamdani said. “Whether I’m standing next to her at a press conference or whether I’m sitting across from her at a table, it’s the same kind of conversation.”He noted wryly that in politics, that often isn’t the case.

霍楚能当上一天州长都是历史的偶然。她从来不是库莫的执政伙伴,更谈不上是他的继承人。他曾多次试图在竞选搭档中替换掉她。

That Hochul spent even a day as governor is an accident of history. She was never a governing partner of Cuomo’s, much less his heir apparent. He tried multiple times to replace her on his ticket.

2018年,她通过调动关键上州县份的民主党领袖为其候选人资格声援,成功挫败了一次挑战。2021年初,库莫团队曾试图为霍楚尔在拜登政府中安排一个“软着陆”职位,但库莫因性骚扰指控被迫下台,此事才未能成行。霍楚尔告诉我,她曾故意拖延时间,提议一些她明知得不到的职位——比如驻加拿大大使。“我拖过了时间,”霍楚尔说。

She fended off one attempt, in 2018, by marshaling calls of support for her candidacy from Democratic leaders in key upstate counties. In early 2021, Cuomo’s team sought to find a soft landing for Hochul in the Biden administration, but Cuomo was forced out of office over sexual-harassment claims before it could happen. Hochul told me she had stalled for time, suggesting roles—such as ambassador to Canada—that she knew she wouldn’t get. “I ran out the clock,” Hochul said. (Through a spokesperson, Cuomo declined an interview request, but his predecessor, former Governor David Paterson, told me that Cuomo had told him directly that he planned to replace Hochul during a 2022 campaign.)

(通过发言人,库莫拒绝了采访请求,但他的前任、前州长大卫·帕特森告诉我,库莫曾直接告诉他,计划在2022年竞选中替换掉霍楚尔。)霍楚尔成功保住副州长职位,体现了她的坚持,甚至可以说是倔强,这帮助她一步步爬上摇摇欲坠的政治阶梯。她很少是民主党权力掮客的首选,但她展现出了为自己而战的意愿,逐渐消磨对手。她也多次从男性政治家的缺乏自律中获益。

Hochul’s success in keeping her job as lieutenant governor reflects a persistence, even a stubbornness, that has helped her climb up a rickety political ladder. She has rarely been the first choice of Democratic power brokers, but she’s shown a willingness to fight for herself, wearing down opponents. She’s also benefited repeatedly from the lack of discipline of male politicians.

2011年初,霍楚尔在布法罗担任县书记官时,附近选区的一位已婚共和党众议员克里斯·李因被曝光曾向在Craigslist上认识的一名女子发送自己的裸上身照片而辞职。(以当今更为猥琐的标准来看,那桩丑闻算相当轻微。)党内领袖希望霍楚尔竞选县行政长官,因为他们怀疑她能否在共和党刚在六个月前将民主党赶出众议院多数派地位的红区赢得特别选举。

In early 2011, Hochul was serving as a county clerk in Buffalo when a married Republican House member in a nearby district, Representative Chris Lee, resigned amid revelations that he had sent a shirtless photo of himself to a woman he met on Craigslist. (The scandal was rather tame by today’s tawdrier standards.) Party leaders wanted Hochul to run for county executive, doubting she could win a special election in a red district just six months after Republicans had swept Democrats out of the House majority.

但在女儿的鼓励下,霍楚尔决定竞选联邦众议员。民主党人拿出民调显示她在本地竞选中稳操胜券;他们警告她,如果竞选众议员,全国党部不会提供任何帮助。霍楚尔毫不退让。“那真是让我火冒三丈,”她告诉我。

But Hochul, with encouragement from her daughter, decided to run for Congress. Democrats brought her polling showing her that she’d be a shoo-in for the local race; they warned her that she’d receive no help from the national party if she ran for the House. Hochul wouldn’t budge. “That just pissed me off,” she told me. “At that point I’m like, .”

那时我心里想,……不久后,她开始不断给民主党国会竞选委员会主席史蒂夫·以色列打电话、发邮件,试图说服他这场选举值得党投入。“就是不断的外联,”他告诉我。不过,以色列仍然犹豫。“我不想在刚担任委员会主席时,就把钱投进一场完全徒劳的选举,”以色列说。在承诺支持之前,他给了霍楚尔筹款和民调目标,认为她根本不可能达成。

Before long, she began pestering the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Steve Israel, with calls and emails to convince him that the race was worth the party’s investment. “Just relentless outreach,” he told me. Still, Israel was reluctant. “I did not want to start my chairmanship of the committee by sinking and wasting money on an absolutely futile race,” Israel said. Before committing support, he gave Hochul fundraising and polling targets that he believed would be impossible for her to meet.

当她超额完成时,DCCC把她请求的资金发给了她,霍楚尔最终获胜,这场重大逆转提振了全国民主党,并在一段时间内让她成为党内宠儿。次年因重新划区使她面对更保守的选民,她的席位险些失守,但她的韧性给党内领袖留下了深刻印象。

When she exceeded them, the DCCC gave her the money she requested, and Hochul ended up winning, a major upset that buoyed Democrats nationwide and, for a time, made her a darling of the party. Hochul would narrowly lose her seat the following year after redistricting gave her an even more conservative electorate, but her tenacity made a lasting impression on party leaders.

2014年需要新的副手时,库莫邀请她加入连任竞选。他的第一任副州长因长期在州内偏远地区驾车导致背部受伤而拒绝连任。(副职没有专机,远非光鲜亮丽。)霍楚尔为票箱提供了性别平衡,并有助于提升库莫在西纽约的表现——这是他在2010年选举中少数失利的地区之一。霍楚尔上位后,库莫四年后在布法罗所在的伊利县获胜。此后,她对库莫的价值逐渐下降。

In need of a new running mate in 2014, Cuomo asked her to join his reelection bid. His first lieutenant governor had declined another term, citing the toll that hours-long drives through the state’s hinterlands had taken on his ailing back. (The No. 2 post, which does not come with a plane, is anything but glamorous.) Hochul provided Cuomo gender balance on the ticket and the chance to improve his performance in western New York, one of the few regions he had lost in his otherwise-dominant showing in the 2010 election. With Hochul aboard, Cuomo won Erie County—home of Buffalo—four years later. After that, her usefulness to him faded.

霍楚尔于2021年8月升任州长,并非突如其来;库莫数月来一直被要求辞职,他在宣布将下台后仍坚持留任两周(违背霍楚尔的意愿)。但霍楚尔的开局并不顺利。“她的过渡相当艰难,”上州民主党议员、霍楚尔的长期朋友约瑟夫·莫雷尔对我说。

Hochul’s ascension to the governorship, in August 2021, was not exactly sudden; Cuomo had faced calls to resign for months, and he lingered in office (against Hochul’s wishes) for two weeks after announcing he would step down. But Hochul did not get off to a strong start. “She had a pretty tough transition,” Representative Joseph Morelle, an upstate Democrat and longtime friend of Hochul’s, told me.

霍楚挑选的第一位副州长仅上任七个月,就在因受贿罪被起诉后辞职。她与民主党控制的州议会展开了激烈的较量,议会否决了她对州最高法院首席法官的提名人选。许多选民开始认为她能力不足;共和党人开始称她为“全美最糟糕的州长”——这个标签至今仍被他们用于竞选广告中。

Hochul’s first pick for lieutenant governor lasted just seven months until he resigned after being indicted on bribery charges. She battled with the Democrat-controlled legislature, which rejected her nominee for chief judge of the state’s highest court. Many voters came to believe she was out of her depth; Republicans began calling her the “worst governor in America”—a label they are still using in campaign ads.

霍楚的第一个完整任期竞选之路同样坎坷。她的助手们现在承认,她对日益增长的犯罪率以及涌入该州的移民(其中一些是被共和党州长用大巴运送过来的)所引发的担忧反应迟钝。尽管她在担任副州长期间曾广泛走访纽约州各地,但对于许多选民来说她依然是个陌生人,甚至还有人把她的姓氏读错。

Hochul’s first campaign for a full term was rocky too. Her aides now acknowledge that she was slow to respond to concerns about rising crime and the influx of migrants arriving in the state (some because they were bused in by Republican governors). Though she had traveled widely across New York as lieutenant governor, she remained unknown to many voters, some of whom still mispronounce her name as -ul.

霍楚是一个多世纪以来第一位来自布法罗的州长。这座伊利湖畔的城市在文化和地理上比纽约市更接近克利夫兰,而纽约市则是该州民主党选民基本盘的集中地。她喜欢展现出坚定的形象。当我问及她任职初期遭受的指责时——这些指责有时似乎近乎无礼,她想起了母亲经常重复的一句话:“未经你的允许,没有人能让你感到难受,而我绝不给予任何人这种允许。”

Hochul is the first governor in more than a century from Buffalo, a city on the shores of Lake Erie that is culturally and geographically closer to Cleveland than it is to New York City, home to the bulk of the state’s Democratic voter base. She likes to project a steely image. When I asked about the opprobrium she received early in her tenure, which sometimes seemed to veer into disrespect, she recalled a saying that her mother used to repeat: “No one can make you feel bad without your permission, and I give it to no one.”

但她的顾问们告诉我,事实上她对批评和轻蔑相当敏感。佩洛西的指责尤为刺痛人心;多年后,一位助手在提到这位前众议院议长时,依然先骂了一连串脏话。

But her advisers told me that she can, in fact, be quite sensitive to criticism and slights. The finger-pointing by Pelosi stung particularly hard; years later, one aide prefaced a reference to the former speaker with a string of expletives.

尽管霍楚一直极力避免与同党民主党人爆发旷日持久的公开争斗,但她在幕后也玩过不少强硬政治手段。“人们以为她好欺负,其实不然,”布鲁克林的州参议员罗克珊·佩尔索对我说,她将这种看法很大程度上归咎于人们对女性当权者的固有偏见。

Although Hochul has sought to avoid drawn-out public battles with fellow Democrats, she’s played her share of hardball politics behind the scenes. “People think that she is a pushover when she really is not,” a Brooklyn state senator, Roxanne Persaud, told me, attributing those perceptions in large part to assumptions that people have about women in power.

亚当·帕佩 为《大西洋》报道Adam Pape for The Atlantic

在德尔加多去年搬去挑战她之后,霍楚尔夺走了他的办公室并重新分配了几乎所有的员工。霍楚尔的盟友告诉我,她必须证明自己并非仅仅是“那位来自布法罗的好姑娘”。“你可以感受到人们何时对自己的政治立场感到舒适,我认为她现在正散发出这种自信,这让选民充满信心,”阿尔·夏普顿牧师对我说。“我常根据政治人物是否有足够的自信和胆识说‘不’来评判他们,她做到了。”

After Delgado moved to challenge her last year, Hochul took away his office space and reassigned almost all of his staff. Hochul allies told me that she had to demonstrate that she was not merely, as one of them put it, “the nice lady from Buffalo.”“You can sense when people become comfortable in their own political skin, and I think she exudes that now, which gives voters confidence,” the Reverend Al Sharpton told me. “I judge a lot of politicians based on, do they have enough self-confidence, enough spine, to say no? And she does.”

霍楚尔并未赢得左翼所有批评者的支持。几周前,我收到美国运输工人工会国际主席约翰·萨穆尔森的联系,他得知我正在撰写关于霍楚尔的报道。他并不是她的粉丝。“她对建立关系一无所知,”萨穆尔森说。他批评她处理各种劳资纠纷的方式,包括今年五月长岛铁路工人的罢工,并指责她在谈判中屡次食言。“她完全不可信,像个垃圾场的狗一样。”

Hochul hasn’t won over all of her critics on the left. A few weeks ago, I was contacted by John Samuelsen, the international president of the Transport Workers Union of America, who had heard I was working on a story about Hochul. He was not a fan. “She’s absolutely clueless about fostering relationships,” Samuelsen said. He criticized her handling of a variety of labor disputes, including a strike by Long Island Rail Road workers in May, and he accused her of repeatedly going back on her word in negotiations. “She’s just completely untrustworthy, and kind of like a junkyard dog.”

在2024年选举期间,霍楚尔因突然暂停实施长期计划的进入曼哈顿车辆收费而激怒了纽约市的进步派。这项全国首创的政策——拥堵定价——本承诺同时缓解交通、改善空气质量,并为这座拥有百年历史的地铁系统注入亟需的资金。大多数人认为此举是为了讨好纽约市周边共和党占据的选区的郊区选民的政治安抚,因为民主党担心如果政策推进会引发选民的强烈反弹。

During the 2024 election, Hochul infuriated progressives in New York City by abruptly pausing implementation of a long-planned toll on vehicles driving into Manhattan. The first-in-the-nation policy, known as congestion pricing, held the promise of simultaneously relieving traffic, improving air quality, and providing a much-needed infusion of money into the city’s century-old subway system. Most saw the move as a politically motivated sop to suburban voters in GOP-held seats around New York City, where Democrats feared a voter backlash if the policy went forward.

选举结束后,霍奇尔通过恢复征收通行费但降低费率的方式达成了一项折中方案。随后,特朗普又送了她一份“礼物”:甚至在他尚未第二次就职之前,他就宣布自己的政府将阻止该州的计划,此事最终被诉诸法庭。为了增强效果,白宫还发布了一张特朗普头戴王冠、旁边写着“国王万岁”的图片。

After the election, Hochul worked out a compromise by reviving the toll but at a lower rate. Then Trump handed her a gift: Before even taking office for a second time, he declared that his administration would block the state’s plan, and the issue wound up in the courts. For added effect, the White House posted an image of Trump wearing a crown beside the declaration LONG LIVE THE KING.

总统的介入将民主党内部围绕税收的派系之争,转变为一场团结全党的斗争,也让霍奇尔得以捍卫本州的主权,抵制联邦政府的越权行为。“纽约州超过250年都没有在国王统治下生活过,我们绝不可能现在才开始。”州长宣称。近两年后,通行费仍然有效——法院始终裁定支持该州——而这一问题也并未成为中期选举中的主要争议点。这一事件正是霍奇尔州长任期的缩影:开局坎坷,历经妥协,展现出一定的韧性,也离不开不少运气。

The president’s involvement turned a factional Democratic fight over taxes into a battle that unified the party and allowed Hochul to defend her state’s sovereignty against federal overreach. “New York hasn’t labored under a king in over 250 years, and we sure as hell are not going to start now,” the governor declared. Nearly two years later, the toll remains in effect—courts have consistently ruled in the state’s favor—and the issue is not a major flash point in the midterm campaigns. The episode exemplifies Hochul’s tenure as governor—a rocky start, some compromise, a little resilience, and more than a bit of luck.

霍奇尔并非一位极具魅力的公众演讲者,甚至算不上特别流畅。在我参加的活动上,她常常把话说得含糊不清,偶尔还会把精心打磨的口号讲得支离破碎。今年5月,她在球队即将进入NBA总决赛前,试图驳斥特朗普自称是纽约尼克斯队铁杆球迷的说法,结果却适得其反。“我倒是想问问他,能不能说出1993年冠军队的首发阵容,看看他答得怎么样。”

Hochul is not a scintillating public speaker, or even an especially smooth one. At the events I attended, she had a tendency to garble her words, occasionally turning finely honed sound bites into mush. In May, her attempt to dunk on Trump’s claim that he was a huge New York Knicks fan ahead of the team’s NBA Finals run backfired. “I’d ask him to name the starting lineup from the 1993 championship team and see how he does,” Hochul said, mistaking the year of the team’s last NBA trophy by two decades.

霍奇尔说道,但她把球队上一次赢得NBA冠军的年份说错了整整二十年。在一次学校活动中,尽管那位州参议员就站在她身后,霍奇尔却尴尬地叫错了他的名字。

During a school event, Hochul awkwardly misidentified the state senator who represented the area even though the lawmaker was standing right behind her.

她更擅长零售式政治。霍楚尔似乎真的享受那些无休止的介绍、拍照机会和见面会,而许多政治家只把这些当作必要的繁琐事务来容忍。她建立的联系也显得真诚。在长岛一个倾向共和党的地区的另一所学校,我看到一位当地校长在私下会议中哽咽,表达了对她来访以及她来庆祝的新幼儿园中心的感激之情。

She’s better at retail politics. Hochul seems to actually enjoy the endless introductions, photo ops, and meet-and-greets that many politicians only tolerate as necessary tedium. The connections she makes also feel sincere. At a different school in a Republican-leaning area of Long Island, I watched as a local superintendent got choked up during a private meeting while he described his appreciation for her visit and the new pre-K center she was there to celebrate.

霍楚尔曾自称是“拜登的民主党人”,而且和前总统一样,她常常以自己的成长经历为参考点。她的父母最初在靠近她父亲工作的贝塞尔钢铁厂的拖车公园里结婚,随后搬到一间小公寓。“那是一段艰苦的生活,”她在布朗克斯的听众面前说。“我的父母在某种意义上把尊严和成功定义为拥有一个家。”在幼儿园中心的开幕式上,她回忆起自己作为年轻母亲在职场的艰辛。“我根本找不到负担得起、方便的托儿服务,”她说。

Hochul used to describe herself as “a Biden Democrat,” and much like the former president, she’ll often use her own upbringing as a reference point. Her parents started their marriage living in a trailer park near the Bethlehem Steel plant where her father worked, before moving to a small apartment. “It was a tough life,” she told the audience in the Bronx. “My parents, in one sense, had their dignity, their success defined by the home.”At the opening of the pre-K center, she recalled her struggles as a young mom in the workforce. “I could not find affordable, accessible child care at all,” she said.

除了犯罪率下降和幼儿园及托儿中心的扩建,霍楚尔还在推动一项250亿美元的计划,在全州建设或维护10万套可负担住房。她在选举年不忘发放福利,宣布州政府将开始向符合条件的家庭发放200美元的能源返现支票,以抵消物价上涨的压力。(霍楚尔还将在2025年寄出“通胀退款”支票。)霍楚尔关于数据中心的行政命令使她站在华盛顿正在关注的议题前沿。在全州各地的活动中,她将人工智能与更广泛的经济议程联系起来,称其旨在保护工人——尤其是女性——免受工作岗位被取代的威胁。

In addition to the drop in crime and expansion of pre-K and child-care centers, Hochul is promoting a $25 billion plan to construct or maintain 100,000 affordable homes across the state. Not above an election-year giveaway, she announced that the state would begin sending eligible families $200 energy-rebate checks, aimed at offsetting rising prices. (Hochul also mailed out “inflation refund” checks in 2025.) Hochul’s executive order on data centers placed her on the leading edge of an issue that is consuming Washington. At events across the state, she links AI to a broader economic agenda that she says is aimed at protecting workers—particularly women—from the threat of job displacement.

霍楚预计将比第一任期时更轻松地赢得下一个任期。她究竟能提升多少票数仍是一个未知数:昆尼皮亚克大学的一项民意调查显示她领先布莱克曼19个百分点,但其他调查发现差距要小得多,她的助手们也提醒人们不要指望会出现压倒性的胜利。如今的选民群体更加极化,而且话说回来,即便在全州政坛活跃了十多年之后,霍楚仍在向部分选民进行自我介绍。

Hochul is expected to win her next term more easily than she did her first. Exactly how much she’ll improve remains an open question; a Quinnipiac University poll showed her leading Blakeman by 19 points, but other surveys have found the gap to be much smaller, and her aides caution not to expect a landslide. The electorate is more polarized now, and besides, even after more than a decade in statewide office, Hochul is still introducing herself to some voters.

她告诉我,当她不戴着棒球帽进行伪装时,越来越多的人开始注意到她。最近,当我看着她在布鲁克林和哈莱姆区的社区节日上四处走动时,有许多人围着她拍照。另一些人则表现得兴致索然。

She told me that when she’s not disguising herself in a baseball cap, more and more people take notice of her. As I watched her make the rounds at neighborhood festivals in Brooklyn and Harlem recently, plenty of people surrounded her for photos. Others showed little interest.

在布鲁克林卡纳西区的一个节日结束时,霍楚正走回她的防弹SUV,这时附近公园长椅上的一名男子认出了她,并站起来向她问好。她走过去打招呼,两人进行了愉快的交流。在她离开时,这名男子向州长提出了最后一个问题:“请问你叫什么名字来着?”

At the conclusion of a festival in the Canarsie section of Brooklyn, Hochul was walking back to her armored SUVs when a man on a nearby park bench recognized her and stood up to say hello. She walked over to greet him, and they had a pleasant exchange. As she was leaving, he asked the governor one more question: “What’s your name again?”