埃利奥诺雷·休斯发自里约热内卢——在极右翼候选人弗拉维奥·博索纳罗与左翼的路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦于10月25日迎来决胜轮选举前，腐败是许多巴西选民最关切的问题。但专家表示，腐败最大的影响或许不在于选民选择哪位候选人，而在于他们是否决定干脆放弃投票。
ELÉONORE HUGHES RIO DE JANEIRO — Corruption is a top concern for many Brazilian voters ahead of the Oct. 25 runoff between far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro and left-leaning Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva . But experts say its greatest impact may not be on which candidates voters choose, but on whether they decide to sit out of the election altogether.
在许多巴西人眼中，两位候选人都与贪腐有关。博索纳罗正因腐败、洗钱和逃税接受调查，而卢拉则曾因腐败和洗钱罪名在狱中度过了19个月，这些罪名后来被撤销。
In the minds of many Brazilians, both candidates are associated with graft. Bolsonaro is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion, while Lula spent 19 months in prison on corruption and money laundering charges that were later annulled.
对于那些坚定支持任一候选人的选民来说，这种涉嫌勾连的指控无助于遏制他们的热情。但专家表示，对腐败的普遍感知可能会增加弃权率和反现任情绪，从而可能有利于在首轮投票中比卢拉多获得220万票的博索纳罗。以下是关于腐败可能如何影响巴西总统决胜轮选举的分析。
For those who strongly support either candidate, such alleged ties will do little to curb their enthusiasm. But experts say that a generalized perception of corruption can increase abstention and anti-incumbency sentiment, potentially benefiting Bolsonaro, who received 2.2 million more votes than Lula in the first round.
在首轮投票期间，许多人排队投票，他们身穿红色帽子和T恤——表示支持卢拉的政党——或者身穿博索纳罗运动采用的巴西国旗的黄绿色，这反映出当时国家正深陷极化之中。
Here’s a look at how corruption could impact Brazil’s presidential runoff.
博索纳罗和卢拉的支持者对另一方高度不信任，并将对手视为一种威胁。专家表示，这类选民不太可能会重视关于腐败的指控。
During the first round, many lined up to cast their votes wearing either red hats and T-shirts — signaling support for Lula’s party — or the yellow and green of the Brazilian flag adopted by Bolsonaro’s movement, reflecting the polarization gripping the country.
伯南布哥联邦大学政治学教授纳拉·帕万表示：“我们有很强的能力去过滤掉违背我们信念的信息。人们不想去发掘关于他们候选人的真相，他们只想击败对手。”19岁的教育学和心理学学生卡米拉·托布吉·德阿基诺认为，腐败是一个跨党派的问题，也是巴西面临的一个重大问题。但她最关切的是她所看到的弗拉维奥·博索纳罗对民主构成的威胁。
Supporters of Bolsonaro and Lula are highly distrustful of the other side and view their opponents as a threat. Such voters are less likely to give weight to allegations of corruption, experts say.
她说：“如果我只投票给一个与任何腐败都没有牵连的候选人，我会投空白票。但这并不是巴西面临的选择。对我来说，这是一个能否在下次选举中投票的问题。”
“We have a great ability to filter information that goes against our beliefs,” said Nara Pavão, a political science professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco. “People don’t want to discover the truth about their candidates, they want to beat the opponent.”Camila Tobji de Aquino, a 19-year-old student of pedagogy and psychology, thinks that corruption is a cross-partisan issue and a significant problem in Brazil . But her main concern is what she sees as the threat Flávio Bolsonaro poses to democracy.
在大选前夕，一桩涉及巴西最高法院政客和法官的广泛丑闻占据了各大媒体头条，这使腐败成为了公众辩论的核心。
“If I were to vote only for a candidate not tied to any corruption, I would vote blank,” she said. “But that’s not the choice Brazil is facing. For me it’s a question of being able to vote in the next election.”A wide-ranging scandal involving politicians and judges at Brazil’s Supreme Court dominated headlines ahead of the presidential election, placing corruption at the heart of public debate.
曾主持法律案件将前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗因企图发动政变而送进监狱的大法官亚历山大·德莫赖斯，被怀疑与失败的马斯特银行前负责人有联系，弗拉维奥·博索纳罗也是如此。两人均否认有不当行为。
Justice Alexandre de Moraes , who chaired the legal case that put former President Jair Bolsonaro in prison for his attempted coup, is suspected of having ties to the former head of the failed Banco Master bank, as is Flávio Bolsonaro. Both have denied wrongdoing.
对许多巴西人来说，马斯特银行的丑闻勾起了他们对“洗车行动”的回忆，这是巴西历史上规模最大的腐败和洗钱调查，自2014年启动以来，数十名政客被卷入其中。
For many Brazilians, the Banco Master scandal stirs up memories of Operation Car Wash, the largest corruption and money-laundering investigation in Brazilian history that ensnared dozens of politicians after it was launched in 2014.
匹兹堡大学政治学博士候选人、一直研究腐败的劳拉·切利多诺普洛斯表示，一再发生的腐败丑闻可能会推高弃权率并影响未决定投票意向的选民。她说：“人们对政治感到幻灭。他们在这些阵营之间做出实际选择的动力减少了。”
Repeated corruption scandals may drive up abstention and affect undecided voters, said Laura Chelidonopoulos, who has studied corruption and is a political science PhD candidate at the University of Pittsburgh. “People become disenchanted with politics,” she said. “They have less motivation to actually choose between one of these two sides.”More than 33 million people, or 21% of the electorate, did not vote on Oct. 4, the highest first-round abstention rate since 1998. First-round abstention has risen gradually since 2006, according to data from Brazil’s electoral court.
根据巴西选举法院的数据，超过3300万人（占选民总数的21%）在10月4日没有投票，这是自1998年以来首轮投票弃权率最高的一次。自2006年以来，首轮投票的弃权率一直在逐渐上升。
José Tainan, a 36-year-old kitchen assistant from Rio de Janeiro’s Penha complex of favelas, said he struggled to remember when he last voted in an election, but thinks it was probably for Lula back in the 2000s.
36岁的若泽·泰南是里约热内卢佩尼亚贫民窟的一名厨房助理，他说自己很难记起上次投票是在什么时候，但他认为那可能还是在21世纪头十年为了支持卢拉。他将腐败列为自己停止投票的首要原因。
He cited corruption as the top reason why he stopped voting.
他说：“没有什么好选择。他们两个都不适合我。我宁愿为自己为什么没有投票说明理由。”
“There are no good options. Neither one of them suits me. I would rather justify why I didn’t vote,” he said.
18岁至70岁的公民必须投票。无正当理由未能投票的人将面临小额罚款。
Voting is mandatory for citizens aged 18 to 70. Those who fail to vote without a valid reason face a small fine.
里约贫困的贝尔福罗舒直辖市54岁的出租车司机马图萨莱姆·阿吉亚尔表示，他更希望只允许有清白记录的候选人进入政界。尽管如此，他还是会无视博索纳罗面临的贪腐调查，并依然投票支持他。
Matusalem Aguiar, a 54-year-old taxi driver from Rio’s impoverished Belford Roxo municipality, said he would prefer that only candidates with clean records be allowed to enter politics. Still, he will disregard the graft investigations faced by Bolsonaro and vote for him anyway.
阿吉亚尔在里约市中心等待下一位乘客时说：“必须要有所改变。有些人拥有很大的权力，而他们并没有以正确的方式管理这个国家。”
“There needs to be a change,” Aguiar said, as he waited for his next passenger in downtown Rio. “Some people have a lot of power and they’re not managing the country in the right way.”