投资者若担心人工智能交易可能降温，可关注医疗保健和消费品必需品股票，高盛如此建议。高盛分析师、Ben Snider带领的团队周五写道：“在利率持续施压数月后，对资本成本上升的担忧已导致股市下调了增长预期。” “投资者头寸的大幅缩减放大了股市波动。过去两周，我们的周期性股与防御性股配对指数下跌了6%，利率和信贷市场也反映了类似的压力。”
Investors worried that the artificial intelligence trade might lose steam should look to health care and consumer staples stocks, according to Goldman Sachs. "After months of intensifying pressure from interest rates, concerns about the rising cost of capital have caused the equity market to downgrade its growth expectations," Goldman analysts led by Ben Snider wrote Friday. "A sharp reduction in investor positioning has amplified equity market moves. During the past two weeks our Cyclicals vs. Defensives pair has declined by 6%, and rates and credit markets have reflected similar pressures."
因此，高盛筛选出一批近期表现落后但可能迎来“追赶”行情的防御型公司。该银行的防御策略出台之际，能源价格上涨和利率上升令经济前景蒙上阴影，融资成本上升也引发了对AI基础设施建设能否持久的质疑。高盛估计，目前AI资本支出约占标普500指数盈利增长的五分之一，但随着支出增长放缓，这一比例预计将下降。
As a result, Goldman screened for a group of defensive companies that have recently lagged but could be poised for a "catch up" trade if investors suddenly dial back earnings growth expectations. The bank's defense playbook comes as rising energy prices and interest rates cloud the economic outlook, with higher financing costs raising questions about the durability of the AI infrastructure buildout. Goldman estimates AI capital spending currently contributes about half of S & P 500 earnings growth, but expects that to diminish as spending growth slows.
高盛基准情景仍预计盈利持续增长。不过，它现在认为消费类股票可能出现“追赶”行情，这得益于其宏观经济预测师预计2027年会出现更弱的能源价格和更低的利率，从而支撑家庭消费。然而，对较弱结果感到担忧的投资者，“应关注具有'优质'属性的防御行业股票”，高盛表示。以下是高盛筛选名单中的几家代表性公司：泰氏食品凭借11%的过去四个季度自由现金流收益率脱颖而出，为名单中最高。
Goldman's base case still calls for continued earnings growth. But it now sees the likelihood of a catch-up trade in consumer-facing stocks, fueled by weaker energy prices and falling interest rates that its macroeconomic forecasters anticipate in 2027, which will support household spending. Investors concerned about a weaker outcome, however, "should focus on stocks in defensive industries with 'quality' attributes," Goldman said. Here are several names from that made the Goldman screen: Tyson Foods stands out with an 11% trailing four-quarter free cash flow yield, the highest among the companies on Goldman's screen.
据FactSet数据，这家食品饮料公司过去六个月股价下跌近17%。泰氏食品的自由现金流收益率也达到3.72%。另一家入选公司是CVS Health，其9%的自由现金流收益率也使其入围。
Shares of the food and beverage company are down nearly 17% over the past six months, according to FactSet data. Tyson also yields 3.72%. CVS Health also made the cut thanks to its 9% free cash flow yield.
其股票今年累计上涨15%，但过去三个月下跌15%。FactSet数据显示，CVS的股息收益率为2.88%。
Its stock has gained 15% for the year, but has fallen 15% in the past three months. CVS offers a 2.88% yield, FactSet data shows.