
高盛表示,投资者风险偏好恶化可能恰恰意味着现在是买入股票的时机。这家华尔街巨头投行称,其风险偏好指标近期首次转为负值,为3月以来首次,这一反向信号促使高盛在战术上将未来三个月的股票建议调整为超配。
Goldman Sachs said that a worsening risk appetite among investors might actually mean now is the time to buy stocks. The giant Wall Street investment bank said that its risk appetite indicator recently turned negative for the first time since March, a contrarian signal that led Goldman to shift tactically to an overweight recommendation in equities for the next three months.
近几周,人工智能题材股票大幅回撤,包括半导体制造商和韩国股市,导致投资者情绪恶化。上周,iShares半导体ETF连续第九个交易日下跌,创下20年来最长连跌纪录。高盛表示,这次抛售可能已形成足够有意义的基础,让投资者开始重新增加敞口,因为强劲的盈利、较低的股票估值和较轻的仓位暗示未来有反弹空间。
Investor sentiment has worsened in recent weeks following a sharp drawdown in artificial intelligence plays, including semiconductor makers and stocks in South Korea. Last week, the iShares Semiconductor ETF notched a ninth straight day of losses, the longest such decline in 20 years. The selloff could have created a meaningful enough base from which investors can start to add back exposure, given that strong earnings, lower stock valuations and lighter positioning suggest renewed upside ahead, Goldman said.
伦敦资产配置研究主管Christian Mueller-Glissmann在报告中写道:“短期内,因AI担忧、中东局势紧张和中期选举,可能还有更多波动,但我们认为盈利支撑加上较轻仓位和较低估值,应有助于股市走向年底。”
"Near term there might be more volatility due to AI concerns, Middle East tensions and midterm elections, but we think earnings support with lighter positioning and lower valuations should help equities into year-end," London-based head of asset allocation research Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote in a note.
尽管高盛可能更乐观,但该行仍维持现金超配建议,并对信用债维持低配、对久期维持中性。
Whole Goldman may be more optimistic, the bank continues to carry an overweight recommendation for cash, and is underweight credit and neutral duration.
高盛并非唯一将近期看跌情绪升温视为有利反向信号的机构。富国银行的买卖情绪指标上周跌破-1水平,Macro Risk Advisors指出其市场情绪评分已从约61暴跌至27左右。
Goldman Sachs is not the only firm to regard a recent increase in bearish sentiment as a favorable, contrarian signal. Wells Fargo's buy/sell sentiment gauge crossed the -1 level last week, and Macro Risk Advisors noted that its market sentiment score had plunged to around 27 from roughly 61.