据高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）对冲基金覆盖部门负责人托尼·帕斯夞里洛（Tony Pasquariello）称，上周四，华尔街自7月以来最大规模抛售期间，对冲基金以两年来最快速度抛售科技股，这对该交易的信心造成严重怀疑。
Hedge funds sold technology stocks at the fastest pace in two years last Thursday during Wall Street’s biggest rout since July, casting serious doubt over conviction in the trade, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Tony Pasquariello.
尽管标普500指数（S&P 500 Index）已横盘三个月，但表面平静掩盖了自6月底以来的“持续业绩回撤”，当时人工智能交易开始回调，帕斯夞里洛在给客户的报告中写道。他表示，对冲基金已连续数周削减股票的净敞口和总敞口。
While the S&P 500 Index has been range-bound for three months, the apparent calm masks a “sustained performance drawdown” since the end of June as the AI trade retraced, the head of hedge fund coverage at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to clients. The funds have been cutting both net and gross exposure to equities for weeks, he said.
“我们是否见到了投降？虽然无法精确判断，但根据我的行业拼图和与客户的交谈，感觉市场确实切到了一些骨头，”帕斯夞里洛在描述周四交易时写道。当天，纳斯达克100指数下跌2.9%。周一，科技股反弹，该指数上涨1%。
“Have we seen capitulation? While it’s impossible to gauge with precision, based on my franchise mosaic and client conversations, it felt like the market did cut into some bone,” Pasquariello wrote of Thursday’s trading. The Nasdaq 100 slid 2.9% that day. Tech stocks bounced on Monday, with the index up 1%.
他在一份日期为10月23日的报告中表示，导致抛售的压力部分源于持仓和基本面。投资者在上半年强劲表现后，在人工智能主题上持有大量多头头寸，但市场此后“合谋打压共识头寸”，帕斯夞里洛表示。
The pressure causing the selling was partly due to positioning and fundamentals, he said in note dated Oct. 23. Investors have carried heavy length in the artificial intelligence theme after a strong first half, but the market has since “conspired to hammer consensus positions,” according to Pasquariello.
人工智能领域的超大型公司继续执行，需求没有减弱的迹象。但随着支出承诺不断累积，投资者正就电力和资本供应提出尖锐问题，他写道。油价突破以及临近的美国中期选举也给市场情绪增加了压力。
Megacap companies in the AI arena keep executing and demand shows no sign of ebbing. But as spending commitments stack up, investors are asking hard questions about the supply of power and capital, he wrote. Oil’s breakout and the approaching US midterm elections add to the strain on sentiment.
他表示，市场上有许多通常先于潜在转折出现的迹象。他指出，杠杆投资者已连续一个月进行去风险操作，隐含波动率走强，周期股相较防御性股票遭受重创。与此同时，高盛的风险偏好指标出现了自3月以来的首次负面读数。
There are a number of signs in the market that typically precede a potential turn, he said. He pointed to a month of de-risking across levered investors, firmer implied volatility and a hard hit to cyclicals compared with defensives. At the same time, Goldman’s risk appetite indicator is giving its first negative reading since March.
他还指出，剔除AI股票的标普500指数正朝着三年来最佳月度表现前进，同时也警告称，仓位因素在基准指数表现分化中发挥了重要作用。
In addition, the S&P 500 excluding AI stocks is tracking its best month in three years, he noted, while cautioning that positioning has played a significant role in the divergence in performance from the benchmark index.
对于帕斯夸里埃洛来说，这种局面并不表明是时候增加风险了。在指数长期在同一水平附近交易并消耗掉热门头寸之后，他说自己目前“没有问题在离岸边稍近一点的地方游泳”。本周超大规模云服务商财报密集披露，微软公司和Alphabet公司将于周三收盘后发布财报，亚马逊公司则于周四发布。高盛预计，标普500指数盈利增长将从今年的29%放缓至2027年的18%。这意味着对宏观逆风的抵消力度减弱，尽管帕斯夸里埃洛表示，在双位数利润增长的情况下出现熊市的情况非常罕见。
For Pasquariello, the setup doesn’t signal that it’s time to add risk. After months of the index trading around the same levels and chewing up popular positions, he said he has “no issue with swimming a bit closer to shore right now.”Hyperscaler earnings are on deck this week, with Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. reporting after Wednesday’s close and Amazon.com Inc. on Thursday. Goldman expects S&P 500 earnings growth to slow to 18% in 2027 from 29% this year. That leaves less of a counterpunch to macro headwinds, although it’s very rare for bear markets to exist alongside double-digit profit growth, Pasquariello said.
“牛市应该会延续，但其力度将减弱，过程也会更加曲折，”他写道。
“The bull market should live on, but it will pack less punch and be messier along the way,” he wrote.