
CNBC主持人吉姆·克雷默表示,1987年的股市崩盘提供了一个重要教训,可应用于近期的人工智能股票抛售。
CNBC’s Jim Cramer said the 1987 market crash offers an important lesson that can be applied to the recent AI stock sell-off.
周一是黑色星期一39周年纪念日,当时道琼斯工业平均指数单日暴跌22.6%。这场历史性崩盘部分由旨在保护投资者免受损失的投资组合保险策略所推动。然而,这些策略反而引发了自动抛售浪潮,导致股价暴跌。
Monday marked 39 years since Black Monday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 22.6% in a single session. The historic crash was fueled in part by portfolio insurance strategies designed to protect investors against losses. Instead, they triggered waves of automatic selling that sent stocks plummeting.
“疯狂的自动抛售摧毁了股票,即使底层公司本身相当强劲,”《疯狂行情》主持人回忆道。“回顾起来,那是一个绝佳的买入机会。”克雷默认为,当前的人工智能交易中存在类似的脱节现象。
"Rampant, automatic selling destroyed stocks, even as the underlying companies were quite strong," the "Mad Money" host recalled. "In retrospect, it was a spectacular buying opportunity." Cramer sees echoes of that disconnect in the current AI trade.
上周,标准普尔500指数下跌近2%,创下6月下旬以来最大单周跌幅;纳斯达克综合指数暴跌4.5%,终结了四周连涨势头。半导体和数据中心股票受创尤为严重,许多股票同步下跌,尽管公司基本面并无明显恶化。
The S&P 500 fell nearly 2% last week, its biggest weekly decline since late June, while the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 4.5%, snapping a four-week winning streak. Semiconductor and data center stocks were particularly hard hit, with many falling together despite no apparent deterioration in company fundamentals.
“本节目试图传授的一点是,股票与公司基本价值之间可能存在多大偏离,”克雷默说。
"One of the things I try to teach on this show is how much stocks can diverge from the underlying value of the companies," Cramer said.
克雷默怀疑,周五的抛售可能因对冲基金清算而加剧,类似于今年夏天高度杠杆化的情境意识基金倒闭。虽然另一起清算尚未得到证实,但此类事件可能迫使基金抛售股票以弥补损失,从而拖累股价,无论这些公司是否陷入困境。
Cramer suspects Friday's sell-off may have been intensified by a hedge fund liquidation, similar to the collapse of highly leveraged fund Situational Awareness earlier this summer. While another liquidation has not been confirmed, such events can force funds to unload stocks to cover losses, dragging down shares regardless of whether the companies are in trouble.
“我认为我们现在正在看到同样的情况 — — 股票与基本面几乎没有关系 — — 在一些数据中心股票中,但并非全部,”他说。“它们会成批上涨,即使它们不应该 — — 至少不是这么快。而当它们下跌时,它们会同步下跌,公司内部没有任何变化,就像1987年那样。” 对于投资者来说,教训在于区分股票因业务恶化而下跌和因公司无法控制的外部力量而下跌。
"I think we're seeing the same thing right now — stocks having little to nothing to do with the fundamentals — in some, but not all, of the data center stocks," he said. "They all go up in bunches, even if they shouldn't — at least not this fast. And when they go down, they go down in unison, with nothing happening at the companies, just like '87." For investors, the lesson is to distinguish between a stock falling because its business is weakening and one declining because of forces beyond the company's control. "On the anniversary of the great crash, remember on this Green Monday that you may be seeing huge moves based on the machinations of money managers, who are out over their skis, or crushing the slalom, all totally divorced from the fundamentals, without a shred of alimony," Cramer concluded.
“在大崩盘周年之际,记得在这个'绿色星期一',你可能正在看到基于资金经理操纵的巨大波动,他们要么超出了自己的能力范围,要么在斜坡赛中碾压一切,所有这些都与基本面完全脱节,没有一丝赡养费,”克雷默总结道。
He called it "Green Monday" because the S&P 500 and Nasdaq made back some of their Friday losses in the first trading day of the week. Sign up now for the CNBC Investing Club to follow Jim Cramer's every move in the market. Questions for Cramer?
他之所以称其为“绿色星期一”,是因为标普500指数和纳斯达克指数在本周第一个交易日收回了周五部分损失。
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