
铜正日益成为政府和工业的战略资源,因为人工智能、电网投资和国防开支的增加正推动对这种工业金属的需求,投资者表示。
Copper is becoming increasingly strategic to governments and industries as artificial intelligence, power-grid investment and defense spending increase demand for the industrial metal, investors say.
铜是电子、建筑和交通运输的关键组成部分,常被视为经济活动的晴雨表。今年,由于确保可靠供应的需求加剧,铜的表现优于黄金。
The metal — a key component in electronics, construction and transportation, and often seen as a barometer of economic activity — has outperformed gold this year, as the need to secure reliable supplies has intensified.
截至目前,铜年内涨幅达15.8%,过去12个月涨幅超过30%。相比之下,黄金期货年内下跌4.11%,过去12个月下跌4.52%。现货黄金过去12个月下跌4.89%,年内下跌4%。
Copper has rallied 15.8% year-to-date, and is up more than 30% over the past 12 months. By comparison, gold futures have slipped 4.11% year-to-date, and are down 4.52% over the past 12 months. Spot gold is 4.89% lower over the past 12 months, and 4% down year-to-date.
在接受CNBC《Squawk Box Europe》节目采访时,Ivanhoe Electric首席执行官Taylor Melvin表示,各国、地区和行业正日益聚焦于为国家安全、经济增长和技术基础设施确保金属供应。Melvin表示,这种转变有助于支撑铜价。
Speaking to CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe," Ivanhoe Electric CEO Taylor Melvin said countries, regions and industries are increasingly focused on securing access to metals for national security, economic growth and technology infrastructure. Melvin said that shift has helped support copper prices.
他说:“在全球范围内,现在正是从事铜矿开采的好时机,尤其是在美国。”Melvin所在的总部位于亚利桑那州的采矿和勘探公司专注于铜、金、银、镍和钴。
"It's certainly a good time to be in copper mining globally, and specifically in the United States," said Melvin, whose Arizona-based mining and exploration company focuses on copper, gold, silver, nickel and cobalt.
Melvin还说:“我们如今正处于一个世界,过去我们称之为‘关键金属’的金属,如今在各方面都真正成为‘战略金属’。”Melvin是在伦敦时间周一LME周(全球金属行业年度盛会)开始时发表上述言论的。
"We're really in a world right now where the metals that we used to refer to, and still do, as critical metals are really becoming strategic metals, in every sense of the word," said Melvin, who spoke as LME Week, the annual gathering of the global metals industry, began in London on Monday.
人工智能与国防需求 这种转变正值投资者对人工智能支出的可持续性以及超大规模数据中心建设提出质疑之际,这导致科技股近期出现波动。但Melvin表示,他预计铜将能够抵御近期的波动。
AI and defense demand That shift comes as investors question the sustainability of AI spending and the hyperscaler build-out, which has led to a recent wobble in tech stocks. But Melvin said he expects copper to withstand the recent volatility.
“这是一个新兴的需求领域,而且它确实几乎是铜的刚性需求,”他谈到科技行业对这种金属的需求时说。“很难想象这些大型科技公司中的任何一家会基于铜的成本来做出建设超大规模数据中心的投资决策。”他补充道:“同样的刚性需求也适用于另一个正在出现的需求领域,那就是国家安全、国防预算。因此,当你看铜需求时,科技、人工智能基础设施的影响,我认为我们都可以同意这个市场正在增长。
"It's a new pocket of demand, and it really is almost an inelastic demand for copper," he said of the tech sector's need for the metal. "It's hard to think that one of these large-scale technology companies is going to make an investment decision on a hyperscale data center based on the cost of copper." He added: "That same inelasticity applies to another demand pocket that's emerging, which is national security, national defense budgets. So when you look at copper demand, the impact of technology, artificial intelligence infrastructure, I think we can all agree that that market is growing.
“当然,这些[科技]估值出现了一定程度的回撤和退缩。但两件事可以同时成立——你可以看到资本市场在股票价值上的情绪波动……但也可以成立的是,这些行业正在增长,并且它们将成为我们金属增量需求的来源。”美国铜关税 这一上涨也得到了对美国是否会对精炼铜征收关税的不确定性的支撑。2025年,商务部建议从2027年1月1日起征收15%的关税,但尚未公开宣布对该提议关税的最终决定。
"There certainly has been a bit of a retrench, a retreat, in those [tech] valuations. But two things can be true at the same time — you can have a capital market move in sentiment on equity values… but it can also be true that those industries are growing, and they're going to be a source of incremental demand for our metal." U.S. copper tariffs The rally has also been supported by uncertainty over whether the U.S. will impose a tariff on refined copper. In 2025, the Commerce Department recommended a 15% tariff beginning Jan. 1, 2027, but no final decision on the proposed levy has been publicly announced.
“由于美国可能征收关税的潜在影响,世界上大部分铜目前被储存在美国,而且尚不清楚这些库存是否会对市场其他部分可用,”阿伯丁投资公司高级投资总监、abrdn Future Minerals基金共同经理伊恩·派尔说。
"Because of the potential for US tariffs, a large share of the world's copper is now stored in the U.S., and it isn't clear those stocks will be available to the rest of the market," said Iain Pyle, senior investment director at Aberdeen Investments and co-manager of the abrdn Future Minerals Fund.
“与此同时,中国的库存看起来异常低,而且那里的溢价正在上升。”派尔在10月15日的一份报告中称铜是“供应无法跟上需求的市场中最清晰的例子”。”需要以持续高铜价的形式提供更高的激励。
"At the same time, Chinese inventories look exceptionally low and premiums there are rising." In an Oct. 15 note, Pyle called copper the "clearest example" of a market where supply cannot keep up with demand. "Higher incentives will be needed in the form of sustained higher copper prices.
“围绕关税公告仍然存在一些回调的风险,但我们认为基本面显然看涨,价格飙升的潜力已经增加。”
"There is still some risk of a pullback around tariff announcements, but we see the underlying fundamentals as clearly bullish, and the potential for a spike in prices has increased."