字号·· | 护眼
semafor

投资者:伊朗战争重新定义了能源安全For investors, the Iran war redefined energy security

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

叙利亚卡米什利居民区屋顶上的太阳能电池板。Solar panels on the rooftops of residential properties in Qamishli, Syria.

伊朗近八个月的战争引发了数十年来最严重的能源冲击之一,暴露出那些令人惊讶地轻松吸收冲击的国家与被迫做出痛苦权衡的国家之间的巨大鸿沟。事实证明,韧性更多源于系统层面的思维、长期投资和深思熟虑的规划,而非任何单一技术或政策。

Nearly eight months of war in Iran have produced one of the most severe energy shocks in decades, exposing a sharp divide between the countries that absorbed it with surprising ease and those forced into painful tradeoffs. Resilience, it turns out, comes less from any single technology or policy than from systems-level thinking, long-term investment, and deliberate planning.

应对得最好的国家并不总是拥有最多能源资源的国家。它们是那些在其能源系统中构建了灵活性、冗余度和替代路径的国家。

The countries that coped best were not always those with the most energy resources. They were the ones that had built flexibility, redundancy, and alternative pathways into their energy systems.

中国动用了战略储备、替代管道进口和燃料替代。美国受益于创纪录的国内油气产量、区域储存以及太阳能发电改善夏季电网稳定性,并拥有安全的北美供应链。高度电气化的国家如挪威依靠水电、热泵、电动汽车以及远离冲突区的基础设施。

China drew on strategic reserves, alternative pipeline imports, and fuel switching. The US benefited from record domestic oil and gas production, regional storage and solar to improve summer grid stability, and secure North American supply chains. Highly electrified countries such as Norway relied on hydropower, heat pumps, EVs, and infrastructure located far from the conflict zone.

新兴市场表现更差。孟加拉国和巴基斯坦实施了限电和其他需求削减措施。欧洲和亚洲较富裕的经济体主要通过为液化天然气和其他燃料支付大幅更高的价格才避免了短缺。分界线不在于生产国与消费国之间,而在于拥有选择的国家与没有选择的国家之间。对政府和投资者而言,有三条经验教训尤为突出:国内电子更安全。

Emerging markets fared worse. Bangladesh and Pakistan imposed electricity restrictions and other demand-reduction measures. Wealthier economies across Europe and Asia largely avoided shortages only by paying sharply higher prices for LNG and other fuels. The dividing line ran not between producers and consumers, but between countries with options and countries without them. Three lessons stand out for governments and investors: Domestic electrons are safer electrons.

原则很简单:能源链条越短、越安全,一个国家带入危机的脆弱性就越少。在国内生产、发电或储存的能源,往往比必须穿越脆弱供应链和地缘政治咽喉要道的能源更可靠。鲜有国家能实现彻底的能源独立,但所有国家都能降低其对单一故障点的敞口。

The principle is straightforward: The shorter and more secure the energy chain, the fewer vulnerabilities a country carries into a crisis. Energy that is produced, generated, or stored at home is often more reliable than energy that must travel through vulnerable supply chains and geopolitical chokepoints. Few countries can achieve outright energy independence, but all of them can reduce their exposure to single points of failure.

仅凭成本优势和技术成熟度,太阳能和储能近年来已实现快速规模化。随着需求从中东转向拥有更安全全球贸易路线通道的地区,部分生产商将扩大石油和天然气产量。伊朗战争也在为核能和地热能释放公共和私人资金。核能值得重新关注,既是能源资产,也是国家安全资产,因为反应堆提供可靠电力,很大程度上不受短期地缘政治冲击影响。

Solar and storage have scaled quickly in recent years on cost and technical readiness alone. Some producers will expand oil and gas output as demand shifts away from the Middle East to places with safer access to global trade routes. The Iran war is also unlocking public and private money for nuclear and geothermal energy. Nuclear deserves renewed attention as both an energy and national security asset, since reactors provide reliable electricity largely insulated from short-term geopolitical shocks.

小型模块化反应堆可更进一步,为军事设施、先进制造工厂和人工智能数据中心提供就近的可靠电力。同时,深部钻探和新型增强地热系统的突破,可将全天候电力获取范围大幅拓展至“传统地热区域”之外。电气化现在既是安全战略,也是气候战略。每一度国产电子都能降低对全球燃料市场中断风险的敞口。这将压力转移到了电网身上。挑战不再仅仅是发足够的电,而是建设所需系统,在需要的时间、地点输送电力。

Small modular reactors could go further, supplying dependable power close to military installations, advanced manufacturing facilities, and AI data centers. Meanwhile, breakthroughs in deep drilling and new enhanced geothermal systems could vastly expand access to around-the-clock power beyond “traditional geothermal regions.”Electrification is now as much a security strategy as a climate strategy. Every domestically produced electron reduces exposure to disruptions in global fuel markets. That shifts the burden onto the grid. The challenge is no longer simply generating enough power. It is building the systems required to deliver that power where and when it is needed.

美国电网是全球最大电网之一,且老化迅速。约70%的输电线路使用超过25年,大型电力变压器平均服役近四十年。变压器需求激增,但美国仅有一家专用电工钢国内生产商,这是变压器铁芯所需材料。2025年,80%的电力变压器供应和50%的配电设备零部件供应来自国外。

The US electric grid is one of the largest on Earth, and it is aging rapidly. Some 70% of transmission lines are more than 25 years old, and the average large power transformer has been in service for nearly four decades. Demand for transformers has surged, yet the US has only one domestic producer of the specialized electrical steel needed for transformer cores. In 2025, 80% of power transformer supply and 50% of the distribution supply parts came from abroad.

美国劳动力也在萎缩。到2030年,电力部门将需要增加50多万名工人,而数十万现有能源从业者将同时退休。

The American workforce is thinning too. The power sector will need more than 500,000 additional workers by 2030, just as hundreds of thousands of existing energy sector employees retire.

审批流程加剧了问题:美国重大基础设施项目可能需要四到五年才能获得批准,导致高达1.5万亿美元的投资被推迟。随着能源供应难以跟上需求,这些延误已引起政治关注,并最终推动行动,包括州一级通过的重要立法以及参议院提出的一项新的两党许可改革法案。

Permitting compounds the problem: Major US infrastructure projects can take four to five years to secure approvals, delaying as much as $1.5 trillion in investment. As energy supply struggles to keep pace with demand, those delays have drawn political attention and, finally, action, including significant legislation passed at the state level and a new bipartisan permitting reform bill proposed in the Senate.

应对下一危机效果最好的国家,未必是基础设施建设最多的国家。它们将是那些能充分利用现有资源的国家。

The countries that cope best with the next crisis will not necessarily be those that build the most infrastructure. They will be the ones that make the best use of what they already have.

并非每一项能源安全挑战都能等上十年,等待一座新电厂、输电走廊或重大工业项目。在美国,老化的电网基础设施和快速增长的电力需求使这一制约愈发明显。但许多答案已经存在:长时储能电池可以在电力过剩时储存电力,在出现短缺时释放。电网增强技术可以提升输电容量、缓解拥堵,并提高现有资产的效率。智能电网软件和需求管理工具可以在不新增地下钢铁的情况下,将用电从高峰压力期转移出去。

Not every energy security challenge can wait a decade for a new power plant, transmission corridor, or major industrial project. In the US, with its aging grid infrastructure and rapidly growing power demand, that constraint bites. But many of the answers already exist: Long-duration batteries can store electricity during periods of surplus and release it when shortages emerge. Grid-enhancing technologies can raise transmission capacity, ease congestion, and improve the efficiency of existing assets. Smart-grid software and demand-management tools can shift consumption away from periods of peak stress without new steel in the ground.

每场危机都被认为蕴含着机遇。2026年的教训是,未来十年最成功的能源系统不仅仅是发电更多。它们将更好地储存电力、更高效地输送电力,并更成功地保护电力。

Every crisis is said to carry opportunity. The lesson from 2026 is that the most successful energy systems of the next decade will not merely generate more power. They will store it better, move it more efficiently, and protect it more successfully.

阅读媒体原文 ↗