
以色列央行预计将在周三维持短期利率不变,此前已连续三次降息,路透社的一项调查显示,尽管通胀稳定,决策者可能会在下周大选前暂停降息。
Israel's central bank is expected to hold the line on short-term interest rates on Wednesday after three successive reductions, as policymakers will likely pause ahead of next week's election despite stable inflation, a Reuters poll showed.
在5月、7月和9月降息后,接受调查的所有15位经济学家均预期,以色列央行将把基准利率维持在3.25%的四年低位,决议将于周三下午4点(格林威治时间1300)公布。
After cuts in May, July and September, all 15 economists polled expect the Bank of Israel to keep its benchmark interest rate at a four-year low of 3.25% when the decision is announced on Wednesday at 4 p.m. (1300 GMT).
在本轮始于去年11月的宽松周期中,已累计降息五次,每次25个基点,当时通胀已回落至政府1%-3%通胀目标区间内。市场普遍预期至少还将再降息一次至3%——这与全球收紧货币政策的大趋势背道而驰。
There have been five 25 basis point rate cuts in the current easing cycle, which began last November as inflation has moved to well within the government's 1%-3% inflation target range. At least one more reduction to 3% is widely expected — a divergence from a broader global trend of tighter monetary policy.
经济学家认为,周三若降息可能有利于总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在10月27日的大选中获益。民调显示,内塔尼亚胡阵营及由前军方参谋长加迪·艾森科特率领的主要犹太裔反对党阵营,均难以获得多数席位。
Economists believe a rate cut on Wednesday could benefit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the October 27 election. Opinion polls show both Netanyahu's bloc and the main Jewish-led opposition parties, headed by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, falling short of securing a majority.
巴克莱银行表示,政治不确定性将使央行本次决议维持观望;IBI首席经济学家拉菲·戈兹兰称,市场担心内塔尼亚胡领导的阵营会推高以色列的风险溢价,“主要是由于担心对外交关系和安全局势,以及国内机构地位产生不利影响。”以色列9月通胀率较8月的五年低点1.5%略微回升至1.6%,低于预期。与此同时,第二季度经济强劲反弹,年化增长率达15.4%,而谢克尔兑美元汇率跌至九个月低点。
Barclays said political uncertainty would keep the central bank on hold this decision, while IBI Chief Economist Rafi Gozlan said markets fear that a Netanyahu-led bloc would raise Israel's risk premium "primarily due to concerns over adverse implications for both foreign relations and the security situation, as well as the standing of domestic institutions." Israel's inflation rate edged up to a less-than-forecast 1.6% in September from a five-year low of 1.5% in August. At the same time, the economy bounced back sharply in the second quarter with 15.4% annualised growth while the shekel has weakened to a nine-month low versus the US dollar.
以色列央行副行长安德鲁·阿比尔在9月降息后对路透社表示,若物价压力保持稳定,且视经济对连续三次降息的反应而定,利率还可能继续下行。
After the September rate cut, Deputy Bank of Israel Governor Andrew Abir told Reuters that rates could continue to decline should price pressures remain stable and depending on how the economy reacts to three straight rate cuts.
花旗经济学家米歇尔·尼斯表示,“令人惊讶地”低通胀是本月进一步宽松的有力理由。
Citi economist Michel Nies said that "remarkably" low inflation was a compelling reason to ease further this month.
尼斯说:“以色列央行可能会选择本周暂停(降息),但11月的会议届时大选将已结束,10月通胀数据很可能又是一个低读数,这可能会成为一个良机。”
"The Bank of Israel might choose to skip (this) week, but the November meeting, when elections will be out of the way and the October inflation print will likely be another low reading, might present itself as a good opportunity," Nies said.
他表示,经济的活动面并不显示出任何紧迫感——产出月度指标总体上继续处于趋势水平,劳动力市场依然紧张。他指出,谢克尔的走势和地缘政治风险以及大选都是因素。“我们很难看出以色列央行为何想要急于再次降息。”除了利率决定,央行还将发布季度宏观经济预测,以色列央行行长阿米尔·亚龙将于格林威治时间1315举行新闻发布会。
"The activity side of the economy does not suggest any sense of urgency — monthly indicators of output continue broadly at trend and labour markets remain tight," he said, pointing to the shekel's move and geopolitical risks along with the election. "We find it difficult to see why the Bank of Israel would want to rush in another rate reduction." In addition to the rates decision, the central bank will issue its quarterly macroeconomic estimates and Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron will hold a news conference at 1315 GMT.