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中期选举计划落空,特朗普转向恐吓手段Trump turns to intimidation as his midterms plans fall apart

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唐纳德·特朗普总统于2026年10月14日在蒙大拿州卡利斯佩尔的雄伟山谷竞技场举行的竞选集会上。President Donald Trump during a campaign rally at the Majestic Valley Arena on Oct. 14, 2026, in Kalispell, Mont.

距离选举日只有两周时间,显而易见,特朗普总统迄今为止的所有计划都未能如他所愿。总统已经列出了一长串倾斜选举以利其党派的阴谋,而A计划至D计划的执行情况并不理想。

There are now only two weeks until Election Day and it is pretty clear that all of President Donald Trump’s schemes up to this point have not worked out the way he wanted. The president has run through a laundry list of plots to tilt the election in his party’s favor, and Plans A through D have gone well.

首先,是早在一年多前就开始的划分选区阴谋,当时特朗普向共和党州议会施压,要求进行前所未有的中期重新划区,以绘制出极度有利于他们党的地图。

First, there was the gerrymandering plot which began well over a year ago, when Trump pressured Republican statehouses to undergo unprecedented midcycle redistricting to draw maps that heavily favored their party.

实际负责选举的工作人员正被迫做好最坏的准备。但划分选区的本质是:在强势或中性环境下巩固党派,并非为抵御浪潮选举而设计。如果民调准确,这可能是一场浪潮选举。

The folks who actually run elections are being forced to batten down the hatches But here is the thing about gerrymanders: They’re meant to shore up a party during a strong-to-neutral environment. They are not designed to survive wave elections.

以德克萨斯州为例,特哈诺音乐明星鲍比·普利多(Bobby Pulido)似乎有望在新划定的第15国会选区将其从共和党议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁斯(Monica De La Cruz)手中夺走。这本应是德克萨斯新地图的皇冠之宝,但普利多拥有真正的明星号召力,他在周末的大型集会上展示了这一点,并且正在进行强有力的竞选。

And if the polling is correct this may be a wave election. In Texas, for example, it looks like Tejano music star Bobby Pulido has a real shot at flipping the newly redrawn 15th Congressional District away from Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz. This was supposed to be the crown jewel of the new Texas map, but Pulido has real star power, which he demonstrated at a huge rally over the weekend and he has been running a strong campaign.

事实上,明尼苏达州共和党众议院多数党鞭汤姆·埃默(Tom Emmer)本月早些时候承认,他的党已经对赢得所有重新划定的选区失去希望。

In fact, Republican House Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota conceded earlier this month that his party has already given up hope on winning every redrawn district.

“我们不可能赢下那13个重新划分的席位,”他对《Axios》表示。

“We’re not gonna win all 13 of those redistricted seats,” he told Axios.

自从该计划失灵后,形势愈发绝望。共和党一直夸耀其巨额资金优势,得益于埃隆·马斯克等亿万富翁向选战投入数亿美元以支持该党。

Things have gotten increasingly desperate since that plan backfired. Republicans have boasted a massive funding advantage, thanks to billionaires like Elon Musk pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into races to support the party.

然而,在过去几周,多项民调显示,共和党现在在他们最不预期的地区面临更具竞争性的选战。因此,他们不得不在堪萨斯、内布拉斯加甚至怀俄明等深红州投入大量广告支出。但广告支出终究有限,选民最终会对其产生免疫。

However, over the last few weeks, several polls have shown Republicans now face some much more competitive races in places they least expected. So they are having to spend , including in places like deep-red Kansas, Nebraska and even Wyoming. But ad spending can only go so far before voters just tune it out.

接下来的计划基本上就是直接试图贿赂选民。还记得特朗普那场惨败的中期选举大会吗?他在会上承诺给每个美国成年人5000美元,但前提是共和党保住国会席位。(当然,共和党目前控制着国会。)但民调显示这个想法极不受欢迎,现在特朗普只是偶尔半心半意地提一提。

The next plan was basically just to try to bribe the voters directly. Remember Trump’s big flop of a midterm convention, where he promised to give every single American adult $5,000 each but only if Republicans kept Congress? (Republicans, of course, currently control Congress.) But polling showed the idea is incredibly unpopular, and now Trump only half-heartedly brings it up on occasion.

我不确定他能否说服任何人,也不确定特朗普在深红州的集会不会挽救他的政党——这是最后一项计划,之后他就诉诸选举干预了。首先是他签署行政命令,企图夺取邮寄选票,并利用美国邮政局来决定谁的选票算数、谁的不算。所幸,这一命令实际上已被法院叫停。

I’m not sure he is convincing anyone, nor am I sure that Trump’s rallies in deep-red states are going to rescue his party — which was the final plan, before he resorted to election interference First was his executive order to seize mail-in ballots and use the United States Postal Service to decide whose vote counts and whose does not. Thankfully, that was effectively put on hold by the courts.

因此,距离选举还有两周,现在全是法律上的相互指责和恐吓选民。上周,特朗普政府突袭了明尼苏达州民主党众议员伊尔汗·奥马尔的家。一方面,特朗普显然不愿看到一位来自非洲的黑人穆斯林女性身居要职。但我认为,他试图取消这位女议员的国籍并将其驱逐出境的做法,远不止种族主义那么简单。他想恐吓选民。他想让有色人种——尤其是那些可能投票给民主党的归化公民——在11月3日待在家里不去投票。

So, two weeks out, it is all legal recriminations and voter intimidation Last week, the Trump administration raided the home of Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota. On the one hand, Trump obviously hates to see a Black Muslim woman from Africa in a position of authority. But I think his attempts to denaturalize and deport the congresswoman go further than just racism. He wants to frighten voters. He wants people of color — and especially naturalized citizens who might vote blue — to stay home on Nov. 3.

特朗普的司法部还以完全不可信的广泛非公民投票指控为由起诉加利福尼亚州,因为该州官员拒绝将一个可疑的U盘插入政府电脑来“确认”选民的公民身份。周一,政府加大了这项虚假欺诈调查的力度,现在威胁要判处监禁,并在全州范围内进行黎明突袭。

Trump’s Department of Justice is also suing California over utterly noncredible claims of widespread noncitizen voting, because officials refused to put a shady thumb drive into government computers to “confirm” the citizenship of voters. On Monday, the administration ramped up that bogus fraud investigation It’s now threatening jail time and doing predawn raids across the state.

与此同时,真正负责选举事务的人被迫严加防范。特朗普政府最近威胁犹他州副州长、共和党人迪德丽·亨德森,称司法部将对她进行调查,理由是她不配合其荒谬的非公民投票指控。但亨德森已经表明,她不会被吓倒。

Meanwhile, the folks who actually run elections are being forced to batten down the hatches. The Trump administration recently threatened Utah Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson a Republican, with a DOJ investigation for not going along with its ridiculous claims of noncitizen voting. But Henderson has shown she will not be intimidated. “In the past two elections that I oversaw as lieutenant governor, the threats were all external,”

“在我担任副州长期间监督的两次选举中,所有的威胁都来自外部,”她在周日的《60分钟》节目中说道,“包括非政府势力、网络安全威胁等等。但现在,威胁也来自我们自己的政府内部。”这些威胁主要来自联邦政府。在2020年特朗普试图篡改选举结果时,两党的原则性人士都坚守了自己的立场;如今,他们再次面临着考验。

she told “60 Minutes”on Sunday. “Non-state actors, cybersecurity threats and other things. But now we also have threats coming from within our own government.”The threat is coming the federal government. Principled folks of both parties held the line in 2020, the last time Trump tried to steal an election.

(注:根据要求,译文采用了简体中文,并保留了原文的所有段落结构。)

Now, they are being put to the test again. The post Trump turns to intimidation as his midterms plans fall apart MS NOW

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