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Meta投资者寄望扎克伯格兑现Muse回报Meta Investors Are Looking to Zuckerberg for the Muse Payoff

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是时候付诸行动了。摄影:Minh Connors/彭博社Time to walk the walk. Photographer: Minh Connors/Bloomberg

Platforms Inc. 本周领跑科技板块,比大多数同行早一周发布了第三季度财报。这或许可视为一种自信的信号。市场对该公司 Muse 助手的积极反响,让华尔街投资者开始猜测,这款个人人工智能代理是否证明了他们一直在苦苦寻找的 AI 商业模式。

Platforms Inc. leads the tech pack this week, reporting its third-quarter earnings a week ahead of most of its peers. Take that as a sign of confidence, perhaps. The positive reception to the company’s Muse assistant has Wall Street investors wondering whether the personal artificial-intelligence agent is proof of an AI business model they have been desperately seeking.

Meta 表现强劲,并对 Muse 用户如何实现变现给出了乐观预期,这不仅会提振其股价,也将改善 AI 领域其他参与者的前景——尤其是那些近期受挫的“新云厂商”,因为贷款方担心数据中心的预期收入可能永远无法兑现。Muse 无法独自承担整个 AI 行业的重担,但它能为消费级 AI 代理的盈利潜力提供良好的信号。

A strong showing from Meta, with enthusiastic projections for how Muse users could be monetized, would help its shares but also the fortunes of others in the AI space — particularly the neoclouds that have been hit lately as lenders worry that the expected revenue from data centers may never materialize. Muse can’t take the entire AI industry’s weight on its shoulders, but it can offer good signals on the moneymaking potential of consumer AI agents.

由于 Muse 发布时距季度结束仅剩三周,其影响尚未体现在 Meta 的利润表上。目前所有指标均来自外部观察机构。据 Sensor Tower 数据,Muse 应用下载量已达 1100 万次——增速快于 Claude 和 ChatGPT 最早期的表现。支付平台 Stripe 正确立一个潜在利润丰厚的中介地位,处于 AI 机器人与企业之间的支付环节;Stripe 表示,9 月机器人支出的主要类别为零售、旅游和娱乐。这对广告商而言是利好消息。

It’s too early for Muse’s impact to show up on Meta’s income statement because it launched with only three weeks left in the quarter. All the metrics so far have come from external observers. According to Sensor Tower, the Muse app has been downloaded 11 million times — faster growth than the earliest days of Claude and ChatGPT. Payments platform Stripe, which is establishing a potentially lucrative position as a payments middleman between AI bots and companies, said the top categories for bot spending in September were retail, travel and entertainment. That’s music to advertisers’ ears.

然而,也有迹象表明 Muse 的势头可能正在放缓,正如我之前所写,Muse 取得的许多成功源于纯粹的“蛮力”推广——Sensor Tower 指出,本月迄今 Meta 全部营销支出中近 39% 用于推广 Muse。

And yet there are signs that Muse’s momentum might be slowing, as I have written before, and much of Muse’s success has come from sheer brute force — almost 39% of Meta’s entire marketing expenditure so far this month has been pushing Muse, Sensor Tower noted.

当首席执行官马克·扎克伯格周三与投资者对话时,他将被期望至少回应其中一些担忧。该应用的下载量是否已趋于平稳?广告宣传活动结束后,用户使用情况能否维持?像亚马逊公司这样封杀该应用的公司带来的摩擦又该如何应对?Muse何时会在欧洲推出?

When Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg speaks to investors on Wednesday, he will be expected to address at least some of these concerns. Have downloads of the app plateaued? Will use hold up once the advertising campaign tails off? What about some of the friction with companies like Amazon.com Inc., which has blocked the app? When will Muse be available in Europe?

Meta总裁迪娜·鲍威尔·麦科米克告诉CNBC,Muse商业模式的一部分可能是“当我们帮你省钱时收取费用”。公司距离达成此类协议还有多远?那些正迅速采取行动封杀Muse的银行高管又该如何应对?

Meta President Dina Powell McCormick told CNBC that part of the business model for Muse could be “taking a fee when we help you save money.”How close is the company to making those kind of deals? And what about the bank bosses that are moving swiftly to block Muse, too?

我想这些都是人工智能最迫切问题的变体:这一切何时才能盈利?回答这一问题的压力就是为什么丹·艾夫斯等分析师称其为Meta“几年来最重要的财报电话会议”。如果艾夫斯的看法具有参考价值,当扎克伯格回答分析师提问时,现场将弥漫着不耐烦的情绪。

I guess these are all just variants of AI’s most pressing question: When is all of this going to pay off? The pressure to answer is why analysts such as Dan Ives are calling it Meta’s “biggest earnings call in a few years.”If Ives is anything to go by, there will be an impatience in the air when Zuckerberg fields analysts’ questions.

扎克伯格过去常说,直到产品用户达到约10亿左右之前,产品都不适合激进地变现。到那时,用户已被锁定,网络效应难以撼动,广告和其他附属业务可以在不引发大规模用户流失的风险下实施。(这正是批评者谈论“变烂”时所指的含义。)按他自己的标准,扎克伯格被迫比他自己的意愿早得多地对Muse进行变现。

Zuckerberg used to say that a product wasn’t ripe to be aggressively monetized until it reached around a billion users. By that point, users are locked in, network effects are hard to challenge, and advertising and other trappings can be implemented without risk of a mass exodus. (This is what the critics mean when they talk about enshittification.) By his own standards, then, Zuckerberg is being forced to monetize Muse far earlier than his own sensibilities might wish.

但该公司在人工智能(AI)领域的巨额支出和投资让扎克伯格几乎没有其他选择。预计第三季度的资本支出将达到410亿美元,是去年同期的两倍多。到目前为止,扎克伯格通过承诺未来的发展潜力以及强调当前广告业务的强劲增长来安抚投资者;这些增长得益于AI工具对推荐算法的优化。根据彭博社的数据,第二季度的广告收入同比增长了28%,预计第三季度将进一步增长23%,单季度广告收入或将首次突破600亿美元大关。

But the company’s rampant AI spending and investments leave him with little option. Capital expenditures are expected to reach $41 billion in the third quarter, more than double the amount from the period last year. So far, Zuckerberg has mollified investors by making promises of future potential while pointing to strong ad growth now, aided by AI tools that have improved its recommendation algorithm. Ad growth in the second quarter was up 28% from the period last year. It’s expected to grow 23% in the third quarter, according to Bloomberg consensus data, surpassing $60 billion from ads in a single quarter for the first time.

华尔街当然希望看到这样的增长,但这本身并不足以成为继续大规模支出的正当理由。真正能证明扎克伯格能够将AI技术有效地推广给其36亿用户的,才是真正关键的证据。

Wall Street would like that, but it wouldn’t be enough in its own right to justify continued massive spending. Evidence that Zuckerberg knows how to get Muse to more of his 3.6 billion users would be.

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