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彭博社

法国抗议为何如此难以控制Why French Protests Are So Hard to Contain

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10月17日,巴黎一场示威活动中燃起火焰。摄影:Wayan Barre/彭博社A fire burns at a demonstration in Paris, on Oct. 17. Photographer: Wayan Barre/Bloomberg

法国正为进一步的动荡浪潮做准备,此前10月17日的全国性抗议活动吸引了超过50万人参与,并演变成骚乱、纵火和抢劫。

France is bracing for further waves of unrest after nationwide protests on Oct. 17 drew more than half a million people and descended into riots, arson and looting.

暴力事件正在削弱总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙在其总统任期最后几个月里的权威,并可能使其政府更难推行有争议的开支削减计划。学生团体和工会呼吁举行更多示威,直到政府放弃其预算计划并增加对公共服务的支出。

The violence is undercutting President Emmanuel Macron’s authority during the final months of his presidency and could make it harder for his government to push through contentious spending cuts. Student groups and labor unions have called for more demonstrations until the government abandons its budget plan and boosts spending on public services.

高中生从9月中旬开始示威,谴责教室拥挤、教师短缺以及用于分配大学名额的制度。大致同一时期,社交媒体上充斥着对燃油价格上涨的抱怨。工会、气候活动人士和2018年“黄马甲”运动的老兵呼吁全国示威,数十万人涌上街头。学生及其支持者得到了无政府主义团体和左翼政客的加入,各种诉求融合成对改善公共服务和政府帮助应对生活成本的广泛呼吁。暴徒趁机与警察对抗、破坏建筑物和焚烧汽车。

High-school students began to demonstrate in mid-September to denounce overcrowded classrooms, teacher shortages and the system used to allocate university places. Around the same time, social media lit up with complaints about rising fuel prices. Labor unions, climate activists and veterans of the 2018 “Yellow Vest” movement called for nationwide demonstrations, and hundreds of thousands of people poured onto the streets. Students and their supporters were joined by anarchist groups and leftist politicians, and the various demands fused into a broad call for better public services and government help with the cost of living. Rioters took the opportunity to fight the police, damage buildings and torch cars.

大部分愤怒指向马克龙,距其第二个任期结束还有六个月,他的声望从未如此低落。一些抗议者还挥舞旗帜、高呼口号,声援巴勒斯坦建国。

Much of the anger has been targeted at Macron who, six months before the end of his second term, has never been so unpopular. Some protesters also waved flags and chanted slogans in support of a Palestinian state.

内政部长洛朗·努内兹将针对政府大楼和警察局的袭击归咎于被称为“黑衣帮”的极左煽动者。《巴黎人报》报道,利摩日市政厅纵火案的一名嫌疑人是一名极左活动人士。

Interior Minister Laurent Nunez blamed attacks on government buildings and police stations on extreme-left agitators known as black blocs. Newspaper Le Parisien reported that a suspect in the burning of Limoges’ town hall was an ultra-left activist.

10月17日抗议期间,利摩日市政厅起火。The Limoges city hall on fire during protests on Oct. 17.

一些没有明显政治议程的青少年群体在城市中游荡,在警方试图控制抗议活动时,破坏和抢劫了数千家商店。其中一些人是未成年人,一些人有轻微犯罪前科。

Groups of youngsters with no apparent political agenda roamed through the cities, damaging and looting thousands of shops while police were trying to control the protests. Some were minors, and some had a history of petty crime.

由于伊朗战争和食品通胀侵蚀家庭预算,法国燃油价格上涨。定于明年四月举行的总统大选也是另一个诱因,让-吕克·梅朗雄等左翼人士将抗议活动作为竞选的一部分予以支持。抗议活动的时机选择也是为了给政府施加最大压力,迫使其撤回正在国民议会推进的2027年预算法案。

Fuel prices in France have risen due to the Iran war and food inflation has eaten into household budgets. The presidential election slated for next April has been another trigger, with leftist figures such as Jean-Luc Mélenchon supporting the protests as part of their campaigning. The protests have also been timed to put maximum pressure on the government to scrap a 2027 budget law that’s making its way through the National Assembly.

一个由社交媒体人物和生活成本运动人士组成的松散运动正计划于10月24日发起“第二幕”示威,并在随后的周六举行进一步的全国性抗议。预算中规定的开支削减将成为11月5日另一天抗议行动的焦点,该行动获得该国最大工会的支持。警方对这些示威的回应可能会更加强硬。

A disparate movement of social media figures and cost-of-living campaigners is planning “Act Two” demonstrations on Oct. 24 and further nationwide protests the following Saturday. The spending cuts laid out in the budget will be the focus of another day of protest action on Nov. 5th that’s backed by the country’s biggest trade unions. The police response to those demonstrations is likely to be tougher.

据努涅斯称,抗议活动的规模及伴随的暴力让当局感到意外。他在法国国际广播电台表示,政府原本预计约有20万人抗议,但多达55万人走上了街头。

Their scale and the violence that accompanied them took the authorities by surprise, according to Nunez. The government had expected around 200,000 people to protest, and as many as 550,000 took to the streets, he said on France Inter radio.

在以往的法国街头示威中,暴徒往往混入人群,待和平示威者开始散去后再与警方发生冲突。这一次,极左煽动者以“蜂拥”方式聚集,总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努表示。“这种方式造成了混乱,”他补充道,警力部署过于静态,无人死亡简直是个奇迹。

In past French street demonstrations, rioters often mingled with crowds and began to clash with police once peaceful protesters had begun to disperse. This time, ultra-left agitators gathered in “swarms,” Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said. “This method caused confusion,” the police presence was too static and it was a miracle that no one died, he added.

左翼政客指责警方手段粗暴,并通过包围人群使其无法散去,从而危及公众安全。

Leftist politicians accused the police of being heavy handed and endangering the public by encircling crowds so there was no way for them to disperse.

10月17日,示威者在巴黎共和国广场挥舞法国国旗。Demonstrators wave French flags on Place de la Republique in Paris, on Oct. 17.

左翼激进人物梅朗雄和极右翼国民联盟领袖马琳·勒庞均是明年接替马克龙的热门人选,政治评论员推测,勒庞聚焦法治秩序的竞选将从事态最新发展中获益。

Leftist firebrand Mélenchon and the leader of the far right National Rally, Marine Le Pen, are among the top contenders to replace Macron next year, and political commentators have speculated that Le Pen’s law-and-order focused campaign will benefit from the latest turn of events.

勒庞表示,政府“已失去对一切的控制”,并指责梅朗雄劫持了抗议活动、为暴力行为提供了合法性。

Le Pen said the government “has lost control of everything” and accused Mélenchon of hijacking the protests and legitimizing violence.

目前断言动荡是否会提升她在选民中的支持率还为时过早。政治学家兼民调专家克洛埃·莫兰表示,许多右倾选民担心,如果勒庞赢得总统大选,只会加剧引发最新暴力事件的政治紧张局势。

It may be too early to say if the unrest will boost her standing with voters. Political scientist and pollster Chloé Morin said many right-leaning voters are concerned that if Le Pen does win the presidency, this will only increase the political tensions that fueled the latest violence.

莫兰说:“这是勒庞面临的重大战略困境。她需要解释,如果她当选,这种情况不会一再重演。”

“This is Le Pen’s major strategic dilemma. She needs to explain that if she is elected it won’t be this over and over again” said Morin.

10月20日,警察在巴黎夏特雷- Les Halles 街区执行夜间宵禁。Police officers enforce a night-time curfew in the Chatelet-Les Halles district of Paris, on Oct. 20.

2018年“黄马甲”运动席卷法国之初,马克龙首先试图通过撤回计划中的燃油税增税来平息抗议。他最终还以减税和对低收入者的补贴作出回应,耗资高达170亿欧元。如今财政形势更加严峻,政府用来安抚示威者的手段更少了。

When the Yellow Vest movement swept France beginning in 2018, Macron first tried to diffuse the protests by reversing a planned increase in fuel taxes. He eventually also responded with tax cuts and support for low earners that cost the government as much as €17 billion. Now the fiscal situation is gloomier, and it has fewer options to buy off the demonstrators.

债券投资者担心,法国财政正走上不可持续的道路,当局将难以遏制赤字。因此,他们要求更高的风险补偿,推高了法国相对于其他欧洲国家的借贷成本。

Bond investors are concerned that France’s finances are on an unsustainable path and that the authorities will struggle to rein in deficits. As a result, they are demanding greater compensation for the risks, pushing up French borrowing costs relative to other European nations.

法国债券收益率相对于德国避险国债已升至2011年以来的最高水平,当时欧元区正处于主权债务危机的漩涡之中。投资者正警惕传染迹象,即对法国财政的信心危机会蔓延至其他欧元区国家,尽管欧盟如今比过去更有能力应对债券动荡。

French bond yields have reached their highest in relation to safe German bunds since 2011, when the euro area was in the throes of the sovereign debt crisis. Investors are on alert for signs of contagion, in which a crisis of confidence in France’s finances would spill over to other euro zone countries, even though the European Union is better equipped than in the past to deal with bond turmoil.

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