尽管广告资金正日益向流媒体和数字平台转移，但政治广告大战依然在免费电视频道上展开。
While advertising dollars increasingly shift toward streaming and digital platforms, the political ad war is still being fought over the free airwaves.
广告情报公司 AdImpact 称，在中期选举前夕，广播电视公司有望拿下政治广告支出的最大份额。
Broadcast television companies are set to capture the greatest portion of political ad spend ahead of the midterm elections, according to advertising intelligence company AdImpact.
预计 2025-26 选举周期将成为有记录以来最昂贵的周期，总支出预计达 116 亿美元。这高于 2024 年总统选举周期的 112 亿美元广告支出，也高于 2022 年中期选举的 89 亿美元。
The 2025-26 election cycle is forecast to be the most expensive on record, with a predicted $11.6 billion in total spending. That's higher than the $11.2 billion spent on advertising during the 2024 presidential election cycle and the $8.9 billion spent during the 2022 midterms.
AdImpact 发现，中期选举前预计约 56 亿美元的广告支出（占 48%）将流向广播公司。
An estimated $5.6 billion of advertising spend ahead of the midterms, or 48%, is expected to go to broadcast companies, AdImpact found.
StoneX 股票研究分析师 Daniel Kurnos 在接受采访时表示：“这依然是一场地方游戏。是的，有全国性选举，但你必须赢下各个县。如果你要赢下各个县，就必须触达这些县的选民。”
"It's still a local game," said StoneX Equity Research Analyst Daniel Kurnos in an interview. "Yes, there are national elections, but you have to win counties. And if you have to win counties, you have to reach voters in these counties."
Kurnos 说，广播受众——即收看 NBC、ABC、CBS、Fox 或其地方附属台的观众——通常政治参与度更高：“你迎合的是会投票的人群。你迎合的是关键选票。”这使得政治广告成为广播电视统治地位的最后堡垒之一。
Broadcast audiences — those tuning into NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox or their local affiliate stations — are generally more politically active, Kurnos said: "You cater to the demos that vote. You cater to the votes that matter." That makes political advertising one of the last bastions of broadcast's dominance.
根据 S&P Global 7 月发布的 Magna 数据，虽然广播公司预计将在本周期拿下约一半的政治广告支出，但它们在美国今年预计超过 4700 亿美元的总体广告支出中仅占 7.7%。
While broadcasters are expected to capture roughly half of political advertising spending this cycle, they account for just 7.7% of the more than $470 billion in general advertising spend forecast for this year in the United States, according to Magna data published by S&P Global in July.
覆盖面、受众结构与可信度 Plus Communications创始合伙人、前总统乔治·W·布什2004年竞选连任的全国政治主任特里·纳尔逊对CNBC表示，广播广告让政治策略师能够“从成本角度尽可能高效地”接触到大量选民。尽管随着用户放弃有线电视，“剪线潮”重塑了电视格局，但无线广播仍然免费且可广泛获取。
Reach, demographics and trust Terry Nelson, a founding partner of Plus Communications and the national political director for former President George W. Bush's 2004 reelection campaign, told CNBC that broadcast spots allow political strategists to reach large numbers of voters "as efficiently as we can from a cost perspective." Though cord-cutting has reshaped the TV landscape as customers drop cable, broadcast remains free and broadly accessible.
根据尼尔森最新的月度流媒体报告《The Gauge》，无线广播播出本地新闻、体育赛事、《幸运轮盘》等经典游戏节目以及全国性网络节目，7月份在电视使用时长中所占的份额超过了有线电视。该类别占电视使用的19.5%，而有线电视占18.7%。流媒体在电视使用中遥遥领先，占49%。
Broadcast, which transmits local news, sports, classic game shows like "Wheel of Fortune" and national networks, captured more hours of television use than cable in July, according to Nielsen's most recent monthly streaming report, The Gauge. The category accounted for 19.5% of television use, while cable captured 18.7%. Streaming led television use by far, at 49%.
纳尔逊指出，无线广播在直播体育赛事期间吸引高收视率方面仍然尤其擅长。
Broadcast is still particularly good at delivering high viewership during live sports games, Nelson noted.
“举例来说，如果你考虑NFL的观众，你仍然能在很大一部分人群中获得大量观众，”他说。“所以无论你如何细分这一人群，无论是男性、女性，还是老年人、年轻人，或者无论是什么情况，NFL比赛仍然会覆盖所有这些受众中的很大一部分。”
"If you think about an NFL audience, for example, you're still going to deliver big audiences amongst large segments of the population," he said. "So no matter how you dice that demographic, whether it's men, women, or old people, young people, or whatever the case might be, the NFL game is still going to deliver large segments of all of those audiences."
代表地方广播行业的行业组织TVB的首席执行官布拉德·塞特将选举周期中无线广播的优势归结为“信任、覆盖面和它确实有效”。塞特在一份声明中对CNBC表示，电视被视为的可靠性对政治竞选至关重要。
Brad Seitter, CEO of TVB, a trade organization representing the local broadcast industry, boiled down broadcast's strength during election cycles to "trust, reach and because it works." Seitter told CNBC in a statement that television's perceived reliability is of utmost importance for political campaigns.
“赢得选民的信任就等于为你的候选人或议题赢得一票，”塞特说。
"Gaining the trust of a voter equals a vote for your candidate or issue," Seitter said.
他还表示，他认为无线广播在推广政治候选人和议题方面比某些数字渠道做得更好。
He also said that he believes broadcast does a better job of promoting political candidates and issues than some digital channels.
“您可能会在社交媒体上看到一条政治广告，但您不信任该广告的内容，因为用户已习惯不信任在社交媒体上听到或看到的内容，”Seitter 说。“相反，观众信任他们当地的广播电视新闻，因此当他们看到一条政治广告时，更有可能相信该广告在一个他们知道拥有长期规则、法规和信誉的平台上的内容。” 是战略高招还是肌肉记忆？
"You may see a political ad on social media, but you don't trust the content of the ad because users are conditioned to not trust what they hear or see on social media," Seitter said. "Conversely, viewers trust their local broadcast TV news, so when they view a political ad, they are more likely to believe the content of the ad on a platform they know has long-standing rules, regulations and trust." Strategic prowess or muscle memory?
Seitter 表示，政治竞选活动继续在传统电视上投放广告，因为有明确证据表明这些广告对投票行为有影响力。
Seitter said that political campaigns continue to place s on traditional TV because there is clear evidence that they are influential on voting behavior.
“没有什么能像在广播电视上投放广告那样改变民调数字，”Seitter 说。
"Nothing moves the needle in polling like running an ad on broadcast TV," Seitter said.
根据 TVB 进行的一项研究，42% 的民主党人和 49% 的共和党人表示，广播或有线电视是影响他们如何投票的最重要广告媒体形式。
According to a study conducted by TVB, 42% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans said broadcast or cable television was the most important form of advertising media in influencing how they cast their vote.
卖方广告公司 Magnite 的性能与政治需求主管 Erik Brydges 告诉 CNBC，广播电视被认为的影响力与该平台的悠久历史有关。
Erik Brydges, head of performance and political demand at sell-side ad company Magnite, told CNBC that broadcast's perceived influence is tied to the long history of the platform.
“外面有多项研究显示，您在电视上购买的收视率点数与民调数字的变动存在相关性，因为这种媒介已经存在了约 70 年，”他说。
"There are multiple studies out there that show a correlation between the number of points you buy on TV in relation to moving poll numbers, because the medium's been around for like 70 years," he said.
然而 Brydges 表示，他认为广播电视的优势部分也归因于肌肉记忆。
And yet Brydges said he believes that broadcasting's strength is also due, in part, to muscle memory.
“许多竞选团队以及为竞选团队工作的顾问只是习惯了购买电视广告，”Brydges 说。“外面有句老话，没有政治顾问会因为建议购买更多电视广告而被解雇。” 赢得中期选举 广播公司已经感受到广告支出增加带来的意外之财。
"A lot of campaigns and a lot of the consultants who work on the campaigns have just been really used to buying TV," Brydges said. "There's an old adage out there that no political consultant is ever going to get fired for suggesting buying more TV." Winning the midterms Broadcast companies are already feeling the windfall from elevated advertising spending.
包括 Nexstar Media Group、Gray Media、Sinclair 和 E.W. Scripps 在内的上市广播公司，均在最近的财报季报告了高额政治广告收入，并预测随着中期选举临近，收入将在秋季持续增长。
Publicly traded broadcasters, including Nexstar Media Group, Gray Media, Sinclair and E.W. Scripps, each reported high political advertising revenue in their most recent fiscal quarters and forecast continued growth through the fall as the midterms inch closer.
StoneX公司的Kurnos告诉CNBC，广播公司依赖政治广告带来的低收益来帮助偿还债务。
StoneX's Kurnos told CNBC that broadcasting companies rely on the low-lift revenue from political advertising to help manage their debt.
“他们已经具备了开展标准广告业务所需的所有基础设施，”Kurnos说，“而且他们无需花费精力在广告创意或销售环节上……因此，政治广告带来的收益纯粹是纯利润。”Nexstar拥有或运营着至少265家电视台以及众多网站和移动应用程序，其季度收入创下了公司历史最高纪录。根据8月份的财报，该公司净收入达到19.9亿美元，其中广告收入为8.62亿美元。
"They have all the infrastructure in place for [standard advertising] already," Kurnos said. "And you don't need to work on the creative. You don't need to work on the selling. … Political is just, therefore, pure margin dollars." Nexstar, which owns or operates at least 265 stations and a slew of websites and mobile apps, reported its highest quarterly revenue in the company's history. Net revenue hit $1.99 billion, and advertising revenue was $862 million, according to the August earnings report.
第二季度的整体收入主要得益于Nexstar在3月份收购的竞争对手Tegna。
Overall revenue in the second fiscal quarter was largely driven by the incorporation of broadcast rival Tegna, which Nexstar officially acquired in March.
不过，即便扣除合并带来的额外收入，Nexstar在传统业务领域的收入增长仍主要得益于政治广告带来的7500万美元收益（这是根据该公司最近的财报会议信息得出的）。
However, even discounting additional revenue from the merger, the company still reported fiscal second-quarter growth at legacy Nexstar that was primarily driven by $75 million of political advertising revenue, according to the company's most recent earnings call.
Kurnos认为，虽然Gray Media在规模上不如Nexstar，但同样值得关注：该公司的电视台覆盖了多个竞争激烈的选举区域，因此广告支出也相应较高；据Kurnos介绍，Gray Media参与了12场激烈的参议院选举和所有11场激烈的州长选举的广告投放。
Gray Media, though operationally smaller than Nexstar, could also be a company to watch, according to Kurnos. The company's stations operate in several markets with the most competitive races and thus the greatest ad spend: Gray has exposure in 12 competitive Senate races and all 11 competitive gubernatorial races, according to Kurnos.
“Gray Media一直是广播行业内最擅长获取政治广告收入的公司，”他说。
"Gray has always been the most efficient political generator of the broadcast group," he said.
Sinclair和Scripps也在最近的财报中提到，政治广告收入成为他们业绩增长的主要亮点：E.W. Scripps表示政治广告收入创下了第二季度的历史最高纪录；Sinclair则称政治广告收入比2022年中期选举季增长了9%。
Sinclair and Scripps also reported political ad revenue as a bright spot in their earnings reports for the most recent fiscal quarter. E.W. Scripps said that political ad revenue hit the highest second-quarter level ever, while Sinclair said that political ad revenue had grown 9% from the second quarter of 2022 during the last midterms season.
“没有其他媒介能像广播电视那样有力且可靠地传递政治信息，”E.W. Scripps公司首席执行官亚当·西姆森在公司第二季度财报电话会议上表示。
"No other medium delivers a political message as powerfully and reliably as broadcast television," E.W. Scripps CEO Adam Symson said on the company's second-quarter earnings call.
下一个前沿：联网电视 在媒体光谱的另一端，根据AdImpact的数据，联网电视代表了政治广告支出增长最快的类别。该类别涵盖Apple TV或Roku等联网设备。
The next frontier: Connected TV On the other end of the media spectrum, connected TV represents the fastest-growing category of political advertising spend, according to AdImpact. The category encompasses internet-connected devices like Apple TV or Roku.
AdImpact发现，预计联网电视将占据本周期广告支出的23%，即27亿美元，并有望继续增长。Magnite的布里奇斯表示，联网电视（CTV）以及免费广告支持流媒体频道（也称为FAST）复杂且快速变化的性质，迄今阻碍了一些广告商利用高收视率数据。
It's predicted to capture 23%, or $2.7 billion, of this cycle's ad spending, AdImpact found, and is likely to continue to gain Magnite's Brydges said the complicated and rapidly changing nature of connected TV, or CTV, and free, ad-supported streaming channels — also called FAST — has prevented some advertisers thus far from taking advantage of high viewership numbers.
“如果你看看一些FAST流媒体服务——比如你的Pluto TV、你的Tubi——一个竞选团队或顾问可能不了解那些是什么，”布里奇斯说。“因此，他们可能就会想，‘好吧，如果我不懂这是什么，那可能就不值得投资。’”不过，他说他相信政治顾问正变得更加敏锐地意识到这些平台提供的优势。
"If you look at some of the FAST streaming services — some of your Plutos, your Tubis — a campaign or a consultant might not understand what those are," Brydges said. "Therefore, they might just be like, 'Well, if I don't understand what it is, then it's probably not worth investment.'" However, he said he believes political consultants are becoming more attuned to the benefits that these platforms provide.
管理公司政治广告部门的SKDK皮娅·卡鲁索内在接受CNBC采访时表示，她看重流媒体特定的受众定向功能。
SKDK's Pia Carusone, who manages the firm's political advertising department, told CNBC in an interview that she sees value in streaming's specific audience targeting features.
“例如，如果你在纽约市购买NBC的广告，你买下的是整个市场，”她说，指的是传统广告策略。“现在，随着流媒体和CTV平台的发展，它们能够提供更细致的定向。所以我们能够更直接地触达那些受众。”但卡鲁索内最终表示，政治广告策略依赖于保持多元化的投放组合。
"If you're buying NBC in New York City, for example, you're buying the whole market," she said of traditional advertising strategy. "Increasingly, now with the streaming and CTV platforms, they're able to really offer a lot more nuance in their targeting. So we're able to sort of deliver against those audiences more directly." But ultimately, Carusone said, political advertising strategy relies on maintaining a diverse portfolio.
“你不能只做数字广告。你也不能只做线性电视，”她说。“现在优秀的买方都是在全光谱范围内购买。”
"You can't just do digital. You can't just do linear," she said. "Good buyers today are buying across the spectrum."