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美国需要正视特朗普2.0的所作所为,规划应从现在开始America Needs to Reckon With What Trump 2.0 Has Done. Planning Should Start Now.

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特朗普政府即将面临清算。越来越多的美国人要求对特朗普政府自 2025 年 1 月以来犯下的一切罪行、腐败和残暴行为追责。一项民调显示,高达 77% 的民主党人认为,政府官员因从军事打击到移民与海关执法局袭击公民等一系列行为,应受到刑事起诉。民主党人肯定经常从选民那里听到这些要求,因此许多人——包括像参议员埃莉萨·斯洛特金这样的中间派——承诺,如果他们在 11 月的中期选举中夺回国会控制权,将实施强有力的监督。

A reckoning is coming for the Trump administration. Rising numbers of Americans want accountability for all the crimes, corruption, and cruelties committed by the Trump administration since January 2025. One poll has suggested that a whopping 77 percent of Democrats believe criminal prosecution of administration officials is warranted for actions that range from their military strikes to Immigration and Customs Enforcement attacks on citizens. Democrats must be hearing these demands from voters regularly, as many—including centrists like Sen. Elissa Slotkin—are promising robust oversight if they take Congress in the November midterms.

这是好事,也让问责成为即将到来的中期选举的一个议题。但我们还需要一个长远的愿景,阐明问责如何融入美国民主,并能吸引各个政治光谱的人群。筹划工作应当现在就开始。

That’s good, and it makes accountability an issue for the upcoming midterms. But we also need a long-term vision of how accountability fits into American democracy, with an appeal to those across the political spectrum. The planning should start now.

前路漫漫。首先,美国人持怀疑态度。盖洛普最近的一项民调发现,大多数美国人不信任他们的领导人会依据美国法律受到追责。在唐纳德·特朗普两度遭弹劾均告失败、以及最高法院在“特朗普诉美国案”中裁定总统因公务行为享有刑事起诉豁免权之后,这种看法是可以理解的。即便如此,公众对能让政客为非法行为负责的政府的渴望似乎正在增长。

It will be a long road ahead. For one thing, Americans are skeptical. A recent Gallup poll found that a majority of Americans lack trust that their leaders will ever be held accountable under U.S. law. After two failed impeachments of Donald Trump and the Supreme Court’s determination in Trump v. United States that presidents enjoy immunity from criminal prosecution for official acts, that view is understandable. Even so, the public appetite for a government that can hold politicians accountable for illegal acts appears to be growing.

一批关于政治和精英豁免权的新书——如娜奥米·克莱因和阿斯特拉·泰勒合著的《末日法西斯主义》、吉尔·杜兰的《书呆子帝国》、雅各布·韦斯伯格的《懦夫群像》——冲上畅销书榜,表明民众对法律不公和民主危机的愤怒正在酝酿。与此同时,一些特朗普最铁杆的基本盘支持者正变得沉默。

A raft of new books on political and elite impunity—like End Times Fascism by Naomi Klein and Astra Taylor, The Nerd Reich by Gil Duran, and Profiles in Cowardice by Jacob Weisberg—are storming the bestseller list, signaling a simmering anger about the law’s inequities and the dangers to democracy. Meanwhile, some of Trump’s staunchest rank-and-file supporters are going quiet.

美国人要求终结有罪不罚是正确的。我们从未见过一个政府在国内外犯下如此多的罪行、如此腐败。它无视法院命令,毫无法律依据地关闭联邦机构,压制言论自由,对被视为政治敌人的人进行报复性起诉,袭击我们的城市和和平抗议者,对全球经济和全球健康造成持久损害,破坏国际机构,并未能遵守一系列涉及环境、教育、气候和公共卫生的美国法律。

Americans are right to demand an end to impunity. We have never had an administration that has committed so many crimes and so much corruption at home and abroad. It has disobeyed court orders, shuttered federal agencies without any basis in law, repressed freedom of expression, pursued vindictive prosecutions against perceived political enemies, assaulted our cities and peaceful protesters, caused lasting damage to the global economy and global health, undermined international institutions, and failed to comply with a range of American laws touching on the environment, education, climate, and public health.

特朗普、其家人及其同伙从事自我交易,其规模在美国历史上前所未见。与此同时,该政府试图摧毁民主公民社会的支柱,如独立新闻界、高校、社会科学和法律界。

Trump, his family, and his associates have engaged in self-dealing at a level never seen at this scale in American history. All the while, the administration has sought to crush the pillars of democratic civil society, such as independent journalism, colleges and universities, social sciences, and the legal profession.

国会监督将不得不成为问责议程的第一部分,但其道路将坎坷不平,效果不如推动者所希望的那样理想。毋庸置疑,理想情况下,这应从美国人下个月首先选出一个将推行监督的国会开始。然而,即使国会履行职责,特朗普及其爪牙仍将掌权,必定会设法阻挠委员会、拒绝传票、阻碍调查,同时高呼“武器化司法”、“猎巫行动”和“特朗普失调症”。

Congressional oversight will have to be the first part of the accountability agenda, but its path will be bumpy and less effective than promoters may hope. Needless to say, this ideally should start with Americans first electing a Congress next month that will pursue oversight. Yet even with a Congress doing its job, Trump and his satraps will still be in power, and are sure to stonewall committees, refuse subpoenas, and block inquiries while crying weaponization, witch hunt, and Trump derangement syndrome.

埃隆·马斯克本人极可能成为国会调查的目标,他可能会利用其个人宣传平台X推动反问责算法。共和党将试图利用国会历史性的高不支持率来破坏其任何作为。在这样的宣传和喧嚣下,许多美国人可能会将这些尝试视为更多的混乱和动荡,而非国会终于履行其宪法赋予的制衡行政部门的职责。至少,这将是特朗普白宫的说辞。

Elon Musk, himself a likely target of congressional investigation, could juice an anti-accountability algorithm on his personal propaganda platform, X. Republicans will try to exploit Congress’ historically high disapproval ratings to undermine anything they do. With that kind of propaganda and noise, many Americans might perceive these attempts as just more chaos and instability rather than a Congress finally stepping into its assigned constitutional role of checking the executive. That, at least, would be the Trump White House’s spin.

所有这些意味着,真正的清算——由法律强制力支撑的问责——将不得不等到2029年1月才能开始,届时特朗普将(或视你的乐观程度而定,何时)被一个致力于民主未来的政府所取代。如果没有法律程序和后果的硬性约束与清晰界限来应对这一政府,美国可能会让反民主势力无限期地持续下去。对特朗普时代罪行与腐败的豁免,将确保它们卷土重来,并助长当今社会弥漫的愤世嫉俗情绪。

All of this means that the real reckoning—accountability backed by the force of law—will have to begin in January 2029, if (or when, depending on your level of optimism) Trump is replaced by an administration committed to a democratic future. Without the hard edge and clarity of legal processes and consequences following this administration, America could enable antidemocratic forces to persist indefinitely. Impunity for Trump-era crimes and corruption will guarantee their return and fuel the existing cynicism throughout our society.

这或许看似遥远,但国会领袖以及美国社会各界的专家——尽可能来自左派、中间派,以及右派中仍存的法治拥护者——应当立即着手制定问责的愿景与计划。首先,他们必须向选民解释,特朗普及其圈子必须为其公然违法的行为付出何种代价。他们需要推广一种问责语言,这种语言要弘扬法治、民主与正当程序,同时摒弃报复、打击报复或政治清算的论调。

It may seem distant, but congressional leaders and experts across American society, drawn as much as possible from the left, center, and the remaining rule-of-law supporters on the right, should begin to develop a vision and plan for accountability now. For one thing, they must explain to voters the price Trump and his circle must pay for their brazenly unlawful conduct. They need to socialize a language of accountability that promotes rule of law, democracy, and due process while eschewing talk of retribution, retaliation, or political payback.

他们需要阐明,问责议程将如何同时服务于推进符合公众利益的热门政策,无论是解决负担能力问题,还是应对寡头财富集中、气候可持续发展或医疗保健等长期议题。一种超越单纯起诉的有效问责路径,或许还需要新的法律与机构——这些都应当现在就进行磋商准备,以便在特朗普卸任时能够迅速建立。

They need to articulate how an accountability agenda will also support the pursuit of popular policies in the public interest, whether it’s affordability or long-term issues such as the concentration of oligarchic wealth, a sustainable climate, or healthcare. An effective approach to accountability that goes beyond prosecution may also require new laws and institutions—these should be hashed out and ready to be created when Trump leaves office.

那么,这究竟是什么样子的?为一个事实证明长期缺乏高层问责的美国政府,建立高层问责机制的计划究竟应该是什么?

So what does that actually look like? What should be the plan to build high-level accountability into an American government that has, it turns out, so long been without it?

至少,追责议程将要求一个独立的司法部开展刑事调查并起诉对那些大多数专家和官员认为明显违法的行为负责的人。这包括军方在加勒比海地区杀害数百人以及在伊朗杀害平民的领导责任,以及违反武装冲突法基本规则的行为;对移民、寻求庇护者甚至美国公民的非法驱逐出境、非人道待遇和任意拘留,这些行为共同构成反人类罪;以及移民与海关执法局和边境巡逻队对抗议者的杀害和威胁。

At the very least, the accountability agenda will require an independent Department of Justice pursuing criminal investigation and prosecution of those responsible for the actions that most experts and officials view as manifestly unlawful. This includes leadership responsibility for the military’s murder of hundreds of people in the Caribbean and killings of civilians in Iran, and violations of fundamental rules in the law of armed conflict; the illegal deportation, inhumane treatment, and arbitrary detention of migrants, asylum-seekers, and even U.S. citizens, which together constitute crimes against humanity; and the killings of and threats against protesters by ICE and Border Patrol.

其他潜在罪行需要通过调查才能被发现,并确定是否构成刑事或民事责任。参议员乔恩·奥索夫称之为“马阿拉戈黑手党”的腐败行为,可能涉及联邦犯罪,例如内幕交易、电信欺诈和证券违规。尽管最高法院已大大削弱反腐败法的效力,但一些人,如参议员安迪·金,正在创造性地思考如何加强该法。对负责人而言,民事责任和资产没收也必须列入议程。

Other potential offenses will require investigation just to be discovered and determined to be subject to criminal or civil liability. Corruption by the “Mar-a-Lago Mafia,” as Sen. Jon Ossoff calls them, may involve federal crimes, such as insider trading, wire fraud, and securities violations. Though the Supreme Court has stripped anti-corruption law of much of its power, some, like Sen. Andy Kim, are thinking creatively about how to reinforce it. Civil liability and asset forfeiture will have to be on the table for those responsible.

即使进行了最彻底的调查,也并非所有严重的违法行为都应受到刑法或民事责任的追究。例如,一个致力于法治的民主政府必须采取“去特朗普化”(即清除那些曾属于违法政权的官员)的措施,这种做法在其他国家也曾被用来处理那些渗透到官僚体系中的专制政权成员及其工作人员。法律中存在的各种漏洞(这些漏洞为官员提供了过大的自由裁量权,而且数量实在太多)必须通过立法手段加以弥补;同时,必须进一步保护独立监察机构的独立性并赋予其更多权力。

Even with the most robust investigations, not all serious harms will be—or should be—subject to criminal law or civil liability. For instance, a democratic government committed to the rule of law will require de-Trumpification, the kind of lustration (the removal of members of the law-breaking regime from the bureaucracy) that other societies have undertaken to deal with authoritarian regime figures and staffers who have burrowed into the bureaucracy. All of the various loopholes in law that provide officials with vast discretion—and there are too many—must be closed through legislative initiatives, while the independence of agency inspectors general, for instance, must be better protected and empowered.

那些在执行特朗普政府政策时违反职业操守的律师应当被吊销执业资格。精英机构也需要设立相应的审查机制,拒绝为那些不承认特朗普在2020年选举中败选事实的官员提供平台,从而增强社会对专制主义的抵制——尽管即使在2021年1月6日特朗普发动暴乱之后,大多数机构仍未能做到这一点。

Lawyers who carried out Trump administration policies, breaking professional obligations, should face disbarment proceedings. Elite institutions will need to adopt some gatekeeping, refusing to platform Trump officials who do not, for instance, acknowledge the reality of his 2020 election loss, in order to reinforce social opposition to authoritarianism—though this is something most have failed to do even after Trump’s insurrection of Jan. 6, 2021.

特朗普对民主制度的破坏行为在很大程度上仍隐藏在秘密之中。例如,美国公众对埃隆·马斯克领导的“政府效率部”及其员工和领导层的违法犯罪行为知之甚少;同样,人们对“管理和预算办公室”主任拉塞尔·沃特如何大规模削减联邦项目的资金、拨款及相关权力也缺乏了解。

Much of Trump’s assault on democratic institutions remains shrouded in secrecy. For instance, Americans have limited insight into Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency and the extent of its employees’ and leadership’s criminal acts or other violations of law, or how Russell Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget, engaged in an unprecedented stripping of federal programs, grants, and authorities.

特朗普的第二任政府对美国法律和价值观发动了如此广泛的攻击,以至于我们需要的不仅仅是起诉:还需要一项全社会的行动来应对。这应当采取国会授权、部门逐一设立的美国真相委员会的形式,对联邦政府每个机构的行政不当行为进行调查并厘清细节,编撰记录破坏与犯罪的历史档案,并提出进一步刑事调查、立法和宪法修订的可能性。

Trump’s second administration has constituted such a broad assault on American law and values that we will require something more than prosecutions: a society-wide initiative to deal with it. This should take the form of a congressionally authorized, department-by-department Truth Commission for America that investigates and establishes the details of administration malfeasance in every agency of the federal government, one that develops historical records detailing the destruction and crime and proposes possibilities for further criminal investigation, legislation, and constitutional revision.

国会可以开始确定问责议程的要素,首先成立问责工作组,研究并规划后特朗普时代的工作。一些州,如伊利诺伊州和明尼苏达州,已经设立了委员会,开始开展问责工作。我们也可以借鉴世界各民主国家已经认识到问责对民主重要性的经验:巴西、阿根廷和韩国等国的高级别起诉,匈牙利和法国的腐败调查与惩处,德国及前苏联东欧的清算,波兰的司法改革,以及南非和危地马拉的真相委员会等众多案例。

Congress can begin identifying the elements of an accountability agenda, starting with the creation of an Accountability Task Force to study and plan for the post-Trump world. Some states, such as Illinois and Minnesota, have established commissions to begin the work of accountability already. We also can learn from democracies around the world that have themselves recognized the importance of accountability to democracy: high-level prosecutions from countries like Brazil, Argentina, and South Korea, corruption investigations and penalties from Hungary and France, lustration from Germany and post-Soviet Eastern Europe, judicial reform from Poland, and truth commissions from South Africa and Guatemala, among many others.

民主国家把这些作为常规做法,我们也可以如此,即使要对这些经验进行调整,并从其不足中汲取教训,以适应我们的具体情境。

Democracies do this as a matter of course, and we can, too, even if we modify these lessons, and learn from their shortcomings, for our own particular contexts.

并非所有美国人——甚至不是所有民主党人——都会支持。部分建制派人物会以两党合作和解决问题的幻象来拒绝问责议程。他们会争辩说,追究违规者的责任只会加深分裂,而不是实现和解,这使他们与最高法院多数派站在同一立场,后者更担忧“派系冲突的循环”,而非行政部门的刑事犯罪。

Not all Americans—not even all Democrats—will be on board. Some establishment figures will reject an accountability agenda in service of the chimera of bipartisanship and problem-solving. Going after those responsible for wrongdoing, they will argue, will deepen divisions rather than deliver reconciliation, aligning them with a Supreme Court majority that worried about “a cycle of factional strife” more than administration criminal wrongdoing.

这些理由与杰拉尔德·福特总统赦免理查德·尼克松的“水门事件”罪行、老布什总统赦免“伊朗门”丑闻罪犯、以及巴拉克·奥巴马总统呼吁我们“向前看”而非“向后看”小布什政府建立的酷刑制度时所用的理由如出一辙。那些做法带来团结了吗?那些做法遏制住权势者违反民主基本规则的倾向了吗?那些做法阻止了特朗普的司法部进行报复性起诉和打压公民社会吗?今天我们因为他们自诩的宽宏大量而更团结了吗?

These are the same kinds of justifications used by President Gerald Ford when he pardoned Richard Nixon for his Watergate crimes, by President George H.W. Bush when he pardoned perpetrators of the Iran-Contra scandal, and by President Barack Obama when he urged that we look forward instead of backward at the torture regime established by the George W. Bush administration. Did any of those bring unity? Did any of those tamp down the tendency of the powerful to violate basic rules of democracy? Did they stop Trump’s Department of Justice from its vindictive prosecutions and attacks on civil society? Are we more united today because of their self-described magnanimity?

并没有。更不用说,特朗普总统在离任途中将滥用赦免权,企图为自己及其最亲密的官员谋取豁免权。更糟的是,最高法院在“特朗普诉美国案”中裁定总统因“公务行为”享有刑事豁免权,给了他一张“免入狱卡”。联邦检察官,无论是司法部的还是军队大法官团的,都将不得不应对规避责任的企图,并对其范围和合法性提出挑战。

We are not. And needless to say, on his way out of office, President Trump will abuse the pardon power in a bid to immunize himself and his closest officials. Making matters worse, the Supreme Court gave him a Get Out of Jail Free card by immunizing presidents from criminal liability for “official acts” in Trump v. United States. Federal prosecutors, whether at the Justice Department or the Judge Advocate General’s Corps of the military, will have to navigate efforts to avoid liability and challenge their scope and legitimacy.

部分罪行可能适用州级起诉——赦免权不及于此——联邦检察官应当乐于协助此类起诉取得成功。最严重的罪行——即构成战争罪或危害人类罪的行为——甚至可能受到美国境外检察官的刑事追诉。

Some of the crimes may be amenable to state prosecutions, which the pardon power does not reach, and federal prosecutors should be open to helping those succeed. The most heinous of crimes—those constituting war crimes or crimes against humanity—may even be subject to criminal process by prosecutors outside the United States.

必须明确的是,问责不是报复。它是让制度回归平衡,使我们能真正地说“无人凌驾于法律之上”。它是承诺给予参与真诚说真话者正当程序甚至宽容。但如果我们要建设一个民主社会,问责就必须发生。

Accountability, to be clear, is not retribution. It is leveling the system so that we can genuinely say that no person is above the law. It is promising due process and even forbearance for those who participate in genuine acts of truth-telling. But it has to happen if we are to build a democratic society.

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