。经济问题在本世纪六场中期选举中有四次成为选民最关心的议题——而2026年几乎可以肯定会使其成为七场中的五场。除了生活成本、对伊朗的战争和关税，美国还面临一系列艰巨的长期经济挑战，从不断攀升的联邦债务到人工智能的影响。
In Six Decades of Public Life, I Never Thought I Would Write This Piece The economy has been voters’ top issue in four of the six midterm elections this century — and 2026 appears all but certain to make it five of seven. Beyond the cost of living, the war in Iran and tariffs, America faces a series of daunting longer-term economic challenges, from mounting federal debt to the effects of artificial intelligence.
然而，许多美国人仍然低估了对我们经济未来的一个特定潜在威胁：特朗普总统明确表达的干预甚至篡夺中期选举的意愿。11月3日可能成为这个国家法治的决定性考验，我们的民主和繁荣都岌岌可危。
Yet many Americans continue to underestimate one particular potential threat to our economic future: President Trump’s clearly expressed desire to interfere with and even usurp the midterm elections. Nov. 3 could be a defining test for the rule of law in this country, and both our democracy and our prosperity are on the line.
中期选举可能会顺利、诚实地进行，获胜者以直接的方式就任，这种可能性是存在的——有些人甚至会认为这是大概率。但也存在另一种可能性：选举将像过去两年里许多其他事情一样，最好的情况是混乱，最坏的情况是无法无天。从放大选举舞弊的虚假说法，到削减防范外国干预选举的防御，再到试图胁迫各州使用容易出错的数据库来清除选民登记，特朗普政府已经为公平自由的中期选举设置了障碍。
There is a chance — some would argue a likelihood — that the midterms will proceed smoothly and honestly, with the winners seated in a straightforward manner. There is also the possibility that the election will be, like so much else over the past two years, chaotic at best and lawless at worst. From amplifying false claims of fraud and slashing defenses against foreign meddling in our elections to attempting to bully states into using an error-prone database to purge voter registrations, the Trump administration has already thrown up obstacles to fair and free midterm elections.
普遍存在的担忧是，特朗普先生及其盟友可能会进一步行动，包括向投票站派遣武装联邦特工、扣押选票箱，并利用涉及众议院书记官的程序漏洞，在新国会于1月3日召开时拒绝让当选的民主党议员就任。
There are widespread fears Mr. Trump and his allies could go further, including by sending armed federal agents to polling locations, seizing ballot boxes and exploiting a procedural loophole involving the clerk of the House that could enable them to refuse to seat duly elected Democratic members when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3.
如果特朗普政府发起操纵中期选举结果的行动，其经济影响可能会立即显现，并且可能在特朗普总统任期结束后长期持续。
If the Trump administration launches an effort to manipulate the outcome of the midterms, the economic impact could be felt immediately, and it could last long after Mr. Trump’s presidency ends.
除了蓬勃发展的人工智能领域，企业投资已经疲软。美国独立企业联合会对小企业不确定性的衡量指标比历史平均水平高出32%。这似乎不是向局势中注入更多不稳定因素的好时机。
With the exception of the booming A.I. sector, corporate investment is already weak. The National Federation of Independent Business’s measurement of small-business uncertainty is 32 percent above its historical average. This seems like a bad time to inject substantially more instability into the mix.
当我们考虑到对选举结果的争斗不一定会局限在法庭内时，选举干预带来的短期风险看起来更令人担忧。特朗普明确拒绝排除在2026年选举中援引《叛乱法》的可能性。从2025年底开始，大量移民执法人员涌入明尼阿波利斯，给该市、企业和居民造成了估计7亿美元的损失。持续的选举后混乱加上激进的联邦干预，可能会在全国范围内造成类似的破坏。
The short-term risks from election interference look even more concerning when we consider the possibility that a fight over the outcomes will not necessarily remain contained to the courtroom. Mr. Trump has explicitly refused to rule out invoking the Insurrection Act in regard to the 2026 elections. Starting in late 2025, a surge of immigration enforcement agents into Minneapolis cost the city, its businesses and its residents an estimated $700 million. Sustained post-election chaos coupled with aggressive federal interference could create similar disruptions on a nationwide scale.
任何破坏选举的企图最终都会得到解决，无论是通过政治妥协、法院的争议性裁决、武力手段，还是这三者兼而有之。但经济影响将比眼前的政治危机更持久。法治由自由选举和权力和平交接的传统支撑，它支持商业决策并吸引外国公司投资。它是美元作为世界储备货币地位的基础。它增强了投资者对美国充分信任与信用的信心，并降低了我们债务的利率。换言之，选举的公正性一直是美国繁荣的关键之一。
Any effort to undermine the election will eventually resolve itself, whether through political compromise, contentious rulings from courts, the use of force or all three. But the economic impact will outlast any immediate political crisis. The rule of law, undergirded by a tradition of free elections and the peaceful transfer of power, supports business decisions and attracts foreign companies to invest. It underlies the position of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. It bolsters investors’ confidence in the full faith and credit of the United States and lowers interest rates on our debt. The integrity of our elections, in other words, has been one of the keys to American prosperity.
美国尚未因对其法律体系缺乏信心而遭受经济损失。其他国家却已如此。一位土耳其高管去年对《金融时报》表示：“我们可以忍受高通胀，但我们最大的投资抑制因素是缺乏法治。”美国国务院2024年的一份报告也同样指出，法治问题——包括不尊重产权、打压批评以及任意调查和逮捕——是中国营商环境的主要障碍。
The United States has not yet seen its economy suffer from a lack of confidence in its legal system. Other countries have. “We can live with high inflation,” one Turkish executive told The Financial Times last year, “but our biggest disincentive to invest is the lack of the rule of law.”A 2024 State Department report similarly identified rule-of-law issues — including lack of respect for property rights, repression of criticism and arbitrary investigations and arrests — as major impediments to the business climate in China.
美国不必变成土耳其或中国，也会感受到法治削弱带来的经济影响。经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯曾著名地论述过鼓励人们参与市场活动的“动物精神”。美国人的“动物精神”长期以来一直受到这样一种认知的支撑：他们的国家是世界上创办或投资企业的最佳之地。一场有争议或被推翻的选举可能会让这种认知动摇。
The United States does not have to become Turkey or China to feel the economic impacts of a diminished rule of law. The economist John Maynard Keynes famously wrote of the “animal spirits” that encourage people to engage in market activity. Americans’ animal spirits have long been bolstered by the knowledge that their country is the best place on earth to start or invest in a business. A contested or overturned election could call that into question.
当我与商界和政界领袖交谈时，即使是许多承认选举威胁的人，似乎也认为这种可能性微乎其微。他们往往不认真对待特朗普先生对投票的攻击。这也意味着，市场并未将我认为是一个有意义的风险计入定价。
When I talk to leaders in business and politics, even many of those who acknowledge the election threat seem to consider such a possibility remote. They do not tend to take Mr. Trump’s attacks on voting seriously. That’s another way of saying that the markets are not pricing in what I consider a meaningful risk.
如果特朗普先生在2026年实现了他在2020年大选中未能达成的目标，或者即使他仅仅是更接近这一目标就引发大规模混乱，都可能在债券和股票市场造成严重扰动。10年期美国国债收益率近期触及5.36%——高于2008年金融危机后的水平——部分原因是对国家政策走向的担忧。选举混乱可能加剧投资者对美国政治体制解决财政问题能力的忧虑，进一步推高收益率。这将导致政府债务偿付成本上升，以及消费者的房贷利率和信用卡账单增加，加剧我们已经面临的重大挑战。
If Mr. Trump accomplishes in 2026 what he was unable to with respect to the 2020 election, or even if he causes widespread chaos by coming closer to his objective, it could create serious disruptions in the bond and equity markets. The yield on 10-year Treasuries recently reached 5.36 percent — higher than it was in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis — in part because of concerns about the country’s policy trajectory. Election chaos could increase investors’ worry about the ability of our political system to deal with our fiscal problems, driving yields even higher. This would result in higher debt service costs for the government and higher mortgage rates and credit card bills for consumers, exacerbating our already considerable challenges.
我一生都是享有权利和保护的宪政共和国公民，并希望继续如此。我想大多数美国人，无论其政治倾向如何，都有同感。
I’ve lived my entire life as a citizen of a constitutional republic that provides rights and protections, and I’d like to continue doing so. I imagine most Americans, regardless of their political leanings, feel the same way.
在未来几周里，商界领袖和社会各界领袖应与州和地方民选官员合作，帮助维护位于我们宪政体制核心的政治进程。他们可以通过发布明确、非党派的声明支持选举公正，支持保护选举的非党派组织，以及运用幕后影响力劝阻那些可能考虑采取措施干扰或推翻中期选举的人。
Over the next few weeks, leaders in business and in all sectors of our society should work with state and local elected officials to help protect the political process that lies at the heart of our constitutional system. They can do this by making clear, nonpartisan declarations of support for election integrity, by supporting nonpartisan organizations that protect our elections and by using behind-the-scenes influence to discourage those who might be considering any steps to disrupt or overturn the midterms.
在从事和参与经济决策的六十多年里，我从未想过要写出这样的文章。如果我们现在采取行动，仍能保护我们的政府、人民和经济——并保留当美国选举公平自由时，无论我们投给谁，所有人都能享有的益处。
In more than six decades spent in and around economic policymaking, I never imagined having to write a piece such as this. If we act now, we can still protect our government, our people and our economy — and we can preserve the benefits that accrue to all of us, no matter whom we vote for, when American elections are fair and free.
鲁宾先生是Centerview Partners高级顾问，曾于1995年至1999年担任美国财政部长。
Mr. Rubin is a senior counselor to Centerview Partners and was the U.S. Treasury secretary from 1995 to 1999.