如果唐纳德·特朗普是俄罗斯总统，他肯定会同意一个快速、简便的协议来结束这场残酷的乌克兰战争——甚至可能，正如他所暗示的那样，只需短短24小时。从特朗普的角度来看，这是一个不费吹灰之力的决定。
If only Donald Trump were President of Russia, he would surely agree a quick and easy deal to end the brutal Ukraine war, even – he might suggest – in as little as 24 hours. It is, from Trump’s point of view, a no-brainer.
这不仅能终结这场已进入第五年的消耗性冲突，制止特朗普所称的每月在前线被“屠杀”的成千上万“年轻、漂亮的孩子”丧生，而且——至关重要的是——还将带来巨额利润。
Not only would a resolution to the grinding conflict, now in its fifth year, halt the killing of what Trump refers to as the thousands of “young, beautiful kids” being slaughtered every month on the front lines, but it would – crucially – also be immensely profitable.
对莫斯科的制裁可以被一扫而空，而丰厚的贸易协定也将随之而来。换句话说，和平与繁荣将占上风。
Sanctions on Moscow could be swept away while lucrative trade deals would inevitably ensue. Peace and prosperity, in other words, would prevail.
但当然，特朗普不是俄罗斯总统。那位是总统弗拉基米尔·普京，而这位实际的克里姆林宫强人似乎对在其既定的乌克兰战争目标上做出妥协毫无兴趣，无论是为了俄罗斯和乌克兰民众的性命，还是为了让国库增加数十亿美元的收入。
But, of course, Trump is not the President of Russia. That would be President Vladimir Putin, and the actual Kremlin strongman appears to have very little interest in compromising his stated war aims in Ukraine, either for the sake of Russian and Ukrainian lives or even for billions of dollars more in his state coffers.
正是这种根本性的误解，导致了特朗普政府为斡旋结束战事所做的徒劳努力，并在特朗普的生意伙伴转型为首席谈判代表的史蒂夫·威特科夫与普京本人在圣彼得堡举行的最新关键会晤中再次显露无遗。
It is a fundamental misunderstanding that has driven the Trump administration’s fruitless efforts to broker an end to the fighting, and which was again on show during the latest critical meeting in St. Petersburg between Trump’s business buddy-turned-top negotiator, Steve Witkoff, and Putin himself.
在会谈桌上，普京告诉威特科夫，他对前一天在挪威举行的会议结果感到“好奇”，当时美国、欧洲和北约官员与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基聚首，敲定新的潜在和平提案，其中包括对莫斯科的经济激励措施。
At the table, Putin told Witkoff he was “curious” about the outcome of meetings in Norway the day before, where officials from the US, Europe and NATO huddled with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to hammer out new potential peace proposals, including economic incentives for Moscow.
随后，克里姆林宫一名高级助手证实，特朗普的特使已向俄罗斯领导人通报了讨论情况，并不可避免地补充道：“实际上，这些内容对解决乌克兰危机几乎没有实质价值。”对于一个固执拒绝在强硬立场上让步的克里姆林宫来说，这是一个完全可以预料的结果，其立场包括控制乌克兰东部整个顿巴斯地区，以及在基辅未来的安全安排中拥有发言权。
Later, a top Kremlin aide confirmed Trump’s envoy briefed the Russian leader on the discussions, before adding, inevitably, that “in truth, these contained little of actual value for resolving the Ukrainian crisis.”It was an entirely predictable outcome from a Kremlin that has stubbornly refused to budge from its hardline positions, including gaining control over the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and a say in Kyiv’s future security arrangements.
尽管如此，白宫可能真心希望克里姆林宫表现出更大的妥协意愿，尤其是在特朗普上周解除对俄罗斯柴油出口的制裁之后——这是一个以政治为驱动、旨在缓解美国中期选举前燃油价格的举措，但也给莫斯科带来了巨大的经济利好。
Still, the White House may have genuinely hoped the Kremlin would show more willingness to compromise, especially after Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel exports last week – a politically-driven bid to ease fuel prices in the US ahead of the midterm elections, but also a huge economic boon for Moscow.
随后，特朗普宣布了一项（未成功的）能源停火协议，该协议本将迫使乌克兰停止对俄罗斯炼油厂造成破坏的无人机袭击。
Later, Trump announced an (unsuccessful) energy ceasefire that would have compelled Ukraine to halt damaging drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.
在相互指责中，美国的情报共享受到了影响，特朗普还呼吁更换乌克兰领导层——这全都是克里姆林宫爱听的话。
Amid the recriminations, during which US intelligence sharing was impacted, Trump also called for a change in the Ukrainian leadership – all music to the Kremlin’s ears.
然而，对莫斯科而言，这些协议、诱因，甚至对基辅的共同鄙视，并不被视为配合并退让的信号，而是其美国战略正在见效的迹象。
For Moscow, though, the deals, the incentives, and even the shared disdain for Kyiv are not seen as a cue to play ball and back down, but as a sign that its US strategy is yielding results.
而且，与华盛顿不同，这一战略是清醒务实的：克里姆林宫领导人洞悉特朗普的动机，并凭借巨额经济交易的承诺，轻松分散了白宫这位反复无常的对手的注意力。
And that strategy, unlike Washington’s, is clear-eyed, with the Kremlin leader understanding what motivates Trump and effortlessly distracting his temperamental opposite number in the White House with the promise of vast economic deals.
在圣彼得堡与威特科夫的会晤中，克里姆林宫摆出了更多此类交易，普京在赞扬那项有争议的柴油协议后，建议俄罗斯还可增加向美国出口关键化肥，以及更多其他合作。
More of those were tabled by the Kremlin at the Witkoff meeting in St. Petersburg, where Putin praised the controversial diesel deal before suggesting Russia could also step up exports of crucial fertilizers to the US, and much more.
“我们还在讨论不同的项目，例如数据中心、能源项目和能源合作，”俄罗斯主权财富基金负责人、与特朗普政府官员保持关键联系的克里尔·德米特里耶夫在为期三小时的会谈结束后表示。
“We are also discussing different projects such as data centers, projects in energy and energy cooperation,” Kiril Dmitriev, the head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund and a key Kremlin interlocutor with Trump administration officials, said after the three-hour-long talks broke up.
克里姆林宫用来奉承、拉拢或留住白宫同情倾听者的，不仅仅是经济利益诱饵。
And it’s not just economic baubles that the Kremlin uses to flatter and charm, or to keep a sympathetic ear at the White House.
在圣彼得堡会晤前夕，普京释放了被俄罗斯关押的74岁美国公民斯蒂芬·哈伯德，此人于2022年莫斯科发动全面入侵伊始在乌克兰被俘。阿谀奉承的威特科夫将此举描述为“人道主义行为”。哈伯德原籍密歇根州，据报道在偏远的俄罗斯流放地度过漫长四年囚禁生活期间，遭受急性健康问题折磨。但他最终获释，被白宫赞誉为特朗普交易才干和普京顺从的标志。
Putin’s release – ahead of the St. Petersburg meeting – of a 74-year-old US citizen, Stephen Hubbard, held by Russia since being captured in Ukraine in 2022, at the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion, was cast by a fawning Witkoff as the act of “a humanitarian.”Hubbard, originally from Michigan, is reported to have suffered acute health problems during his four long years of captivity in a remote Russian penal colony. But his eventual release was lauded by the White House as a sign of Trump’s deal-making prowess and Putin’s deference.
“出于对特朗普总统的尊重，美国无需给予任何回报——这对俄罗斯来说是前所未有的情况，”特朗普自家的“真相社交”平台上发布的一份声明写道。
“The United States, out of respect for President Trump, was not required to give anything in return – an unprecedented situation for Russia,” read a statement posted on Trump’s own Truth Social platform.
但克里姆林宫里那位强硬的前克格勃军官，不太可能这样看待此事。
But it’s unlikely the tough former KGB officer in the Kremlin sees it that way.