
东京 —— 日本希望在其力争于年底前出台的增长战略的前五年内,在半导体和电子游戏领域取得快速成果,同时将长期希望寄托于人工智能控制机器人和氢能等领域。
TOKYO -- Japan hopes to make quick wins in semiconductors and video games in the first five years of its growth strategy that it aims to have out by year-end, while pinning longer-term hopes on areas such as artificial-intelligence-controlled robots and hydrogen.
7月,高市早苗首相领导的政府制定了一项增长战略,要求到2040财年,在17个战略领域的62种产品和技术上,实现公私合计超过370万亿日元(约合2.34万亿美元)的投资。
In July, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government compiled a growth strategy calling for more than 370 trillion yen ($2.34 trillion) in combined public and private investment by fiscal 2040 in 62 products and technologies across 17 strategic sectors.
东京现在计划根据将于今年年底前制定的实施计划,从2027财年起通过预算来落实该战略。
Tokyo now plans to implement the strategy through budgets from fiscal 2027 onward, based on an implementation plan to be formulated by the end of this year.
该计划将以盈利能力和经济安全考量为基准,将产品和技术按短期、中期和长期时间表进行分类。
The plan will classify products and technologies into short-, medium-, and long-term timelines using profitability and economic security considerations as benchmarks.
近期优先支持处于商业化阶段或即将商业化、预计能相对快速产生利润的领域,包括半导体和电子游戏等内容产业。
Priority in the near term will be given to fields nearing or at the commercialization stage and expected to generate profits relatively quickly, including semiconductors and content industries like video games.
被视为下一增长引擎的领域,包括示范项目走在其他国家前列的物理AI —— 即利用AI实现机器人或机器自动化 —— 氢能和钙钛矿太阳能电池。
Areas viewed as the next growth engines include those where demonstration projects are advancing ahead of other countries, such as physical AI -- the use of AI to automate robots or machines -- hydrogen and perovskite solar cells.
与此同时,核聚变和量子计算等技术虽从经济安全角度看具有战略重要性,但仍处于研发阶段。
Meanwhile, technologies such as nuclear fusion and quantum computing, though strategically important from an economic security standpoint, remain in the research and development stage.
对于需要立即支持的产品,政府计划在早期集中投资以吸引更多私营部门资金。
For products requiring immediate support, the government plans to concentrate investment at an early stage to attract additional private-sector funding.
对于需要长期投资的技术,政府将继续提供支持,同时鼓励企业研发支出。该计划还将包括应对劳动力市场、金融和监管改革等跨领域挑战的措施。
For technologies requiring longer-term investment, it will continue providing support while encouraging corporate R&D spending. The plan will also include measures addressing cross-sector challenges including labor markets, finance and regulatory reform.
2027年度将启动名为“强韧繁荣日本”的新投资框架,标志着全面预算向危机管理和增长导向型投资倾斜的第一年。从2027年度开始的五年将被指定为针对62项重点产品和技术的集中投资期。
Fiscal 2027, which will feature a new investment framework called "Strong and Prosperous Japan," will mark the first year of a full-scale budget push into crisis management and growth-oriented investment. The five years beginning in fiscal 2027 will be designated as a period of concentrated investment in the 62 targeted products and technologies.
鉴于支持时机将因开发阶段而异,政府旨在根据各战略领域的情况量身定制政策。企业将更清楚地了解其技术和产品何时可能获得支持,从而提高投资的可预测性。
Because the timing of support will vary by the development stage, the government aims to tailor policies to conditions in each strategic field. Companies will gain greater visibility into when their technologies and products may qualify for support, improving investment predictability.
随着市场日益关注日本的财政刺激措施,政府监控和管理增长战略实施情况的能力将至关重要。
As markets increasingly scrutinize Japan's fiscal stimulus measures, the government's ability to monitor and manage implementation of the growth strategy will be crucial.
负责日本增长战略的国务大臣木内均于10月15日在执政党自由民主党的会议上表示,政府将在增减投资对象方面保持灵活。
Minoru Kiuchi, the minister in charge of Japan's growth strategy, indicated at a ruling Liberal Democratic Party meeting on Oct. 15 that the government would remain flexible in adding or removing investment targets.
他说:“我们将运行PDCA(计划-执行-检查-处理)循环来监控进展,如果发现某项措施没有成效,我们将在‘处理’步骤中修正方针。”
"We will run a PDCA [plan-do-check-act] cycle to monitor progress, and if we see that something is not performing, we will revise our approach as the 'act' step," he said.
实施计划预计将体现三大核心原则:多年度预算的重要性、扩大民间投资和提高日本潜在增长率,以及通过PDCA流程进行持续审查和改进。
The implementation plan is expected to reflect three key principles: the significance of multiyear budgeting, expansion of private investment and improvements in Japan's potential growth rate, and continuous review and improvement through the PDCA process.
根据内阁府6月发布的估算,如果战略奏效,日本实际国内生产总值(GDP)增长率在2030年代有可能升至1%区间上半部。作为财政健康关键指标的基础财政收支将在2028年度实现盈余,债务占GDP比率将逐步下降。
If the strategy proves effective, Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate could rise to the upper 1% range in the 2030s, according to Cabinet Office estimates released in June. The primary balance, a key measure of fiscal health, would return to surplus in 2028, while the debt-to-GDP ratio would gradually decline.
在一个不太成功的情景下,潜在增长率和实际经济增长率都将停滞在零至1%可能区间的下半部分,债务与GDP之比将在2030年代开始上升。维持多马条件——即名义经济增长率超过长期利率——将变得日益重要。
In a less successful scenario, however, both potential growth and actual economic growth would remain stuck in the lower half of possible ranges between zero and 1%, and the debt-to-GDP ratio would begin climbing in the 2030s. Maintaining the Domar condition, in which nominal economic growth exceeds long-term interest rates, would become increasingly important.
政府为实现更高增长的主要优先事项包括:吸引外资直接投资日本、拓展海外市场以及将经济效益惠及农村地区。
Among the government's major priorities for achieving higher growth are attracting foreign direct investment into Japan, expanding overseas markets and spreading economic benefits to rural areas.
今年夏天,木内访问了包括英国和德国在内的几个欧洲国家,与当地同行探讨了项目开发。他还鼓励日本贸易振兴机构和日本驻外外交机构支持日外企业之间的商务对接。
Kiuchi visited several European countries, including the U.K. and Germany, this summer, where he discussed project development with his counterparts. He also encouraged the Japan External Trade Organization and Japanese diplomatic missions abroad to support business matching between Japanese and foreign companies.
政府还在充实未来的地区战略,其中包括地方产业集群计划。高市在10月5日的政策演说中表示,截至10月此类已公布计划达74个,将在年底前增加一倍。
The government is also fleshing out a future regional strategy that includes local industrial cluster initiatives. In a policy speech on Oct. 5, Takaichi said the number of such announced plans, which stood at 74 as of October, would be doubled by the end of the year.
周一,高市在东京出席日本最大产业界团体经济团体联合会(经团联)会议时,敦促企业配合政府举措推进投资。经团联的目标是到2040财年实现250万亿日元的国内民间资本投资。
Speaking at a meeting of Keidanren, the country's largest business lobby, in Tokyo on Monday, Takaichi urged companies to move ahead with investment in tandem with government initiatives. Keidanren is targeting 250 trillion yen in domestic private capital investment by fiscal 2040.