凭借明显的支持率优势、巨大的性别差距以及选民对家庭财务状况和总统唐纳德·特朗普的不满，前民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗在俄亥俄州参议院竞选中领先于被任命的共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德。
Powered by a clear favorability advantage, a large gender gap and voter discontent with both household finances and President Donald Trump, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown has the edge over appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted in the Ohio Senate race.
福克斯新闻对俄亥俄州可能投票选民的一项调查发现，布朗以52%对47%领先赫斯特德。
A Fox News survey of Ohio likely voters finds Brown leads Husted, 52% to 47%.
布朗的优势主要来自他更强的个人声望，其支持率净值为正2个百分点（50%支持，48%反对），而赫斯特德的支持率净值为负13个百分点（42%支持，55%反对）。
Brown’s advantage is anchored by his stronger personal standing, with his favorability rating 2 points above water (50% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Husted’s rating sits 13 points underwater (42% favorable, 55% unfavorable).
表示肯定自己会投票的布朗支持者（88%）多于赫斯特德支持者（83%）。
More Brown supporters (88%) than Husted backers (83%) say they’re certain of their vote.
经济上的不安给赫斯特德带来另一个不利因素，约有两倍半的选民表示自己的财务状况比两年前更差而非更好（46%对19%）。认为情况变差的选民以49个百分点的优势支持布朗，而认为自己财务状况更好或不变的选民则分别以51和24个百分点的优势支持赫斯特德。
Economic unease creates another headwind for Husted, as about two and a half times as many voters say their financial situation is worse than two years ago rather than better (46% vs. 19%). Those who say things are worse favor Brown by 49 points, while those who say their finances are better or the same favor Husted by 51 and 24 points, respectively.
总统在俄亥俄州的声望加剧了赫斯特德的困境。特朗普在2024年以55%的得票率赢得这个七叶树州，但目前仅有43%的人认可他的执政表现。57%的多数不认可，其中46%表示“强烈”不认可。
The president’s standing in Ohio adds to Husted’s difficulties. Trump won the Buckeye State with 55% of the vote in 2024, but just 43% now approve of his job performance. A 57% majority disapproves, with 46% saying they "strongly" disapprove.
与此同时，52%的人对赫斯特德与特朗普关系过于密切表示担忧，其中38%的人极度担忧。布朗也面临类似的担忧，即他过于自由派，50%的人对此感到担忧，但极度担忧的比例较低，为30%。
Meanwhile, 52% express concern that Husted is too close to Trump, including 38% who are extremely concerned. Brown faces similar concerns about being too liberal, as 50% are worried, though fewer, 30%, are extremely concerned.
在对决中，女性以14个百分点的优势支持布朗，而男性以4个百分点的优势支持赫斯特德，性别差距达18个百分点。布朗在35岁以下选民、拥有大学学位的选民、工会选民以及居住在城市和郊区的选民中也占优势。赫斯特德则依靠农村社区、未上过大学的白人男性、已婚选民，并在65岁及以上人群中略占优势。
In the matchup, women favor Brown by 14 points, while men support Husted by 4, an 18-point gender gap. Brown also has advantages among voters under 35, voters with a college degree, union voters, and those living in urban and suburban areas. Husted relies on rural communities, non-college White men, married voters, and has a narrow edge among those ages 65 and up.
党派倒戈进一步使选情向挑战者倾斜。赫斯特德获得90%共和党人的支持，但有9%的共和党人转而支持布朗。约97%的民主党人支持布朗，仅2%选择赫斯特德——而布朗在独立选民中以近二比一的优势领先。
Partisan crossovers further tilt the field toward the challenger. While Husted receives 90% of Republicans, 9% cross over to back Brown. Some 97% of Democrats support Brown, while just 2% choose Husted — and Brown carries independents by nearly two to one.
对两位参议院候选人均持负面看法的选民中，赫斯特德以近20个百分点的优势领先。
Voters who view both Senate candidates unfavorably prefer Husted by nearly 20 points.
在表示对此次选举极为关注的选民中，布朗领先9个百分点；在表示已经投票的15%俄亥俄州选民中，布朗领先29个百分点。
Brown is up by 9 points among those who are extremely interested in the election and leads by 29 points among the 15% of Ohioans who say they have already voted.
立法机构控制权偏好向民主党倾斜，俄亥俄州选民以50%对48%的比例分别支持民主党掌控美国参议院和共和党掌控美国参议院。
Legislative preference tilts toward the Democrats, with Ohioans dividing 50% for Democratic control of the U.S. Senate and 48% for Republican control.
在州长竞选中，可能投票的选民以50%对48%的比例支持民主党人艾米·阿克顿，而非共和党人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米。女性以10个百分点的优势支持阿克顿，而男性以7个百分点的优势支持拉马斯瓦米，性别差距与参议院选举几乎相同。
In the governor's contest, likely voters favor Democrat Amy Acton over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 50% to 48%. Women favor Acton by 10 points, while men back Ramaswamy by 7, a nearly identical gender gap to the Senate race.
分裂投票在两个方向上都有体现：8%的布朗支持者转而支持拉马斯瓦米，而6%的赫斯特德支持者支持阿克顿。
Ticket splitting goes in both directions: 8% of Brown supporters cross over to Ramaswamy, while 6% of Husted supporters back Acton.
此次调查完成于拉马斯瓦米竞选团队一则负面电视广告公开之前，该广告中有阿克顿关系疏远的母亲出镜。
The survey was completed before a negative television ad from Ramaswamy’s campaign, featuring Acton’s estranged mother, became public.
本次福克斯新闻民意调查于2026年10月15日至19日进行，由比肯研究中心（民主党）和肖氏公司研究机构（共和党）共同主持，访问了从全州选民名册中随机抽取的2005名俄亥俄州登记选民样本。受访者通过固定电话（219人）和手机（1306人）与现场访员交谈，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（480人）。基于登记选民样本的结果，抽样误差幅度为±2个百分点；对于1592名可能投票者的子样本，抽样误差幅度同样为±2个百分点。
Conducted October 15-19, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 2,005 Ohio registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (219) and cellphones (1,306) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (480). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,592 likely voters it is ±2 percentage points.
各分组结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题的措辞和顺序也可能影响结果。用于制定加权目标的来源包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析以及选民名册数据。权重通常应用于年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量，以确保受访者的人口统计特征能够代表登记选民总体。可能投票者基于一个概率统计模型，该模型依据过往投票记录、对当前选举的兴趣、投票意向、年龄、教育程度、种族、族裔和婚姻状况。只有当样本量至少达到N=100时，才会显示各分组的结果。
Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.