北京——人工智能正闯入央行行长的领域。本月在亚洲举行的多场高层会议，包括上周在曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织-世界银行年会，以及本周在上海举行的外滩金融峰会，都反映出对这项技术的关注度日益提高，尤其是在资本竞争推高许多国债收益率至数十年高位的背景下。
BEIJING — Artificial intelligence is breaking into the realm of central bankers. High-level gatherings this month in Asia, including the International Monetary Fund-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok last week and the Bund Summit this week in Shanghai, reflected growing scrutiny on the tech, especially as competition for capital sends many government bond yields to multi-decade highs.
美联储前理事凯文·沃什在曼谷表示，人工智能是一场积极的经济“冲击”，可能会从“根本上”改变货币政策。他提到计划于11月16日在湾区举行一场关于生产率和就业的听证会，并设有一个专注于人工智能的工作组。
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said in Bangkok that AI was a positive economic "shock" that could "fundamentally" change monetary policy. He noted plans for a hearing on productivity and jobs in the Bay Area on Nov. 16 and has a task force focusing on AI.
三天后在北京，据官方记录稿，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在金融街论坛主旨演讲的最后部分谈到了人工智能。他说，央行将评估该技术的影响，加大对人工智能产业的金融支持力度，并推动其在金融领域的应用。
Three days later in Beijing, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng spent the last portion of a Financial Street Forum keynote on AI, according to an official transcript. He said the central bank would evaluate the impact of the technology, improve financial support for the AI industry and promote its application in finance.
CF40研究院院长郭凯周二在外滩金融峰会间隙接受CNBC采访时表示，“人工智能对全球经济、就业、中国、对一切的影响”位于这场以央行行长为主的外滩金融峰会议程的首位。
"The impact of AI on the global economy, on employment, on China, on everything" was at the top of the agenda at the central-banker-heavy Bund Summit, Guo Kai, president of the CF40 Institute think tank, told CNBC on the sidelines of the conference Tuesday.
人工智能与工资 “人工智能可能已经对工资诉求产生了影响，因为工人们感到担忧”，美联储前副主席唐纳德·科恩说。“我们现在面临的局面是，经济处于充分就业状态，需求相当强劲，但工资（如果有变化的话）在美国名义上和实际意义上都在持续下降，”他在外滩金融峰会间隙告诉CNBC。
AI and wages "AI may be already having an effect on wage demands because workers are concerned" about their jobs, said Donald Kohn, former vice chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. "We have a situation now where the economy is at full employment, demand is pretty strong, and wages, if anything, have continued to come down in the U.S. in nominal terms and in real terms," he told CNBC on the sidelines of the Bund Summit.
科恩预计，在即将于瑞士巴塞尔国际清算银行举行的央行行长和金融监管者会议上，央行行长们将讨论人工智能对就业的影响。
During upcoming meetings of central bankers and financial regulators at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, Kohn expects central bankers will discuss AI's impact on jobs.
国际货币基金组织亚太部副部长索纳利·贾因-钱德拉周二在基金圆桌会议上表示，从印度尼西亚到中国的许多亚洲经济体，由于在人工智能底层供应链中扮演重要角色，容易受到人工智能需求任何下滑的溢出影响。
Managing spillover Many Asian economies from Indonesia to China are vulnerable to any downturn in AI demand due to their significant role in the underlying supply chain, Sonali Jain-Chandra, deputy director of the IMF's Asia Pacific Department, said Tuesday during a fund roundtable.
“这是政策制定者需要关注的一个非常重要的风险，”她说。“这也是为什么我们说，现在是时候建立缓冲，财政外部缓冲，以确保如果出现下滑……政策制定者有空间做出反应。”
"This is a very important risk for policymakers to pay attention to," she said. "And this is why we also say that now is the time to build buffers, fiscal external buffers to make sure that if there is a downturn ... that policymakers have space to be able to respond."
彼得森国际经济研究所所长亚当·波森周二在CNBC的《亚洲早间快报》节目中表示，在国际货币基金组织-世界银行年会和外滩峰会上，人们对世界经济的韧性感到“惊讶”，尽管关于世界经济对美国人工智能支出放缓或盈利能力下降的脆弱性存在争论。
At the IMF-World Bank meetings and the Bund Summit, there's been "surprise" at how resilient the world economy is, despite debate about how vulnerable it is to a slowdown in AI spend or profitability in the U.S., Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said Tuesday on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia."
他说，即使短期内超大规模科技公司股市出现“修正”，我们可能会出现类似1987年或2000年的情况，即利润只是转移到相关行业，而实体经济受到的影响不大。
He said even if there's a stock "market correction in the megascalers ... in the near term, we can probably have something more like 1987 or 2000, where the profits just rotate to adjacent industries and the real economy isn't affected much."